This is not intended as direct criticism, but rather as a genuine attempt to make the figures in charge of dealing with this issue aware of the substantial negative affect their current stance will have. As such I’ve set up an online petition as a companion to this letter to allow players to make the GRA aware of just how unhappy they are.

Below are the points I would address;

The honesty or lack thereof of poster katie91 – The GRA has gone to great lengths to stress that the individual who originally raised the issue was dishonest about their identity and intent and that because of this, any evidence they submitted had to be viewed with skepticism. If this was a case of testimony submitted by katie91, then of course this would be a fair assessment. However, in this instance we’re not looking at any form of subjective opinion or any form of evidence that could have been manipulated to positively or negatively bias the perception of the facts. As the evidence in question was documented game logs that have been analysed by independent experts, the intent behind the play that generated the game logs could not in any way compromise the integrity of said logs. Intent cannot change the outcome of a probabilistic operation.

To draw a comparison, imagine a man who finds his neighbour very attractive, so sets up a video camera to record his neighbour undressing at night. One night on his camera, he finds that he has a video of someone killing his neighbour. Would the police dismiss or discredit the video evidence that the man had because of the immoral and criminal way that it was obtained? The evidence isn’t invalidated by the means of collection. Certainly the individual who had broken rules/laws in the coincidental collection of the evidence should be viewed with less sympathy and should have to face the consequences of their actions, but that does not undermine the credibility of their evidence.

Frequency of use of Play For Free functions – To all intents and purposes the frequency of use of the Play for Free function is an irrelevant. Play for Free functions are designed as an advertisement to encourage players to engage with their Play for Real counterparts. In all well regulated industries, where a product is advertised the advertisement has to realistically reflect the product it promotes.

A perfect example of this is a recent UK ASA ruling banning car manufacturers from quoting fuel economy figures that could only be achieved in laboratory conditions as an indication of what the customer could expect to achieve – http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2305378/Advertising-chiefs-ban-car-firms-make-misleading-claims-vehicle-fuel-consumption.html.

Alongside this, accurately assessing the frequency and volume of use of Play for Free functions is far more difficult than their Play for Real equivalents as there are no logs kept of Play for Free games played. It may be possible to establish, using various website tools, how often a Play for Free page is accessed, but establishing the volume of play is purely conjecture as players engaging with Play for Free games are unlikely to display similar patterns to the Play for Real players, leaving us no base assumption with which to draw conclusions.

Furthermore the statements regarding what other regulators do and don’t do about differences between Play for Free and Play for Real games being acceptable are of no relevance. Simply put, the GRA terms of license do not allow for differences between Play for Free and Play for Real games. What other operators do is irrelevant; these games were in breach of GRA rules. There is no exception given in the term in the GRA license that allows Play for Free games to differ from their Play for Real counterparts if the difference is documented in the game help files – which, it is important to note, did not happen anyway.

Players’ understanding that the house has an advantage – The GRA point out that players in general understand that the house is likely to win in the long run and that the 100% RTP therefore would have been assumed by players to be an error as a mathematically unsustainable business model. While it is true that some players understand that in most situations the house will naturally have an edge over them, the proliferation of bogus progression betting systems sold under the guise that they are ‘winning’ systems that are widely available online would stand as strong evidence contrary to the concept that the player community in large accepts that the house always have the advantage. While these systems do not hold any water mathematically, the fact that selling them is a profitable industry shows that the general level of public understanding to gambling theory is inadequate to produce general acceptance of the mathematical facts and as such cannot be used to dismiss the errors in question here.

Further to this, the idea that a 100% RTP game would be assumed by players to be an error is in itself erroneous. Over the years, many notable venues have offered games that were either break even or even player positive with the correct strategies. To name but a few, Betfair have for several years now offered a selection of ‘Zero’ games that offer no house edge, Boss Media previously offered a single deck blackjack game that offered a small player advantage with the correct strategy, Vuetec previously offered a 6 deck blackjack game with a small player advantage with the correct strategy and 5 Dimes casino offer a selection of video poker games at certain predefined times that offer a player edge. These games are offered as a promotional activity and part of their business model as they venues and suppliers in question believe that the additional traffic will generate increase revenue on other games or that players will fail to utilise the correct strategy and that this will more than offset any lost revenue from zero edge or player positive games.

In short, it cannot be assumed simply because it is not standard for casino games to allow player an even or positive situation that the player would automatically accept that such a game could not exist. Generalisations about players’ expectations that they will lose are not helpful.

How the games functioned – This section of the GRA response is by far and away the most concerning. The GRA fail to address the fact that while the games in question display playing cards, they fail to conform to the natural odds that playing cards would. Regardless of the Flash or RNG function of the games, the paytable the Play for Real versions of these games displayed would result in a RTP of 100%. It is acknowledged by the GRA that the RTP of these games was 96%. While the help file for the game may have been in error by displaying an RTP of 100%, this does not change the mathematical fact that the paytable displayed and used by the game could not produce a house edge of 96% using real cards. This is a clear violation of the GRA license.

Further to this, by taking no action to enforce this term, the GRA have to all intents and purposed rendered it invalid. Without an enforced term ensuring that games that represent physical devices must conform to the probabilities that their real world counterparts would naturally generate, GRA regulated casinos are free to manipulate all table games and video poker games to return the percentage they would like, rather than that which the player would naturally assume.

Adaptive games – The adaptive nature of the games is unquestionable fact. The denial of this by the GRA is either ignorance of the fundamental mathematics involved in the games in question or willfully misleading. To expand; for a game to offer a red/black option where the player can bet on either option with an even payout (1:1), regardless of how often each option comes out the RTP of the two combined bets will always be 100%. For example, assume that unknown to the player Red comes out 60% of the time and Black 40%. The player that bets on Black will always be at a disadvantage of 20% while the player that bets on Red will balance this by being at an advantage of 20%. This is demonstrated by looking at the mathematical result of 100 wagers on each option;

Black : 40x(1) + 60x(-1) = -20

Red : 60x(1) + 40x(-1) = +20

When we sum of both the outcomes we get zero, meaning that the player is neither expected to win nor lose anything. Regardless of how the outcomes are weighted, with only two options and even money payouts on each, it is not possible to produce an advantage for the house.

The only way that an edge for the house could be created in such a game – assuming that we don’t adjust the payouts away from 1:1 as was done on the Bet 365 version of the game – is if, rather than weighting the possible outcomes, you weight the possible result for the player. By this I mean that rather than weighting the Red or Black outcomes, you weight the win or loss outcomes and simply display the appropriate result to the player. To do this, the game would have to change the odds of a specific colour occurring depending on which way the player bet. So if the player bet on Red, the odds of Black coming out would have to increase and vice versa.

This behaviour is the very definition of an ‘adaptive’ game. There is no third option – to produce a house edge under the conditions that were clearly listed on the paytable (Red and Black each with an even money payout) the game has to function in this manner. As such these games breached both the GRA regulations regarding adaptive games and those governing the representation of physical devices and it undermines the credibility of the entire GRA investigation that they would deny what is a mathematical fact.

How long the customer’s funds last – Once again this is an irrelevance. In all practical senses the RTP of a game is the price the customers collectively paid. By selecting a game with a higher RTP, collectively the players should have received more entertainment than they have or greater funds returned. Either way the players have lost. Mathematically speaking, the collective playing community should have been able to play this game indefinitely without paying any price. The greater the volume of play the more assured that outcome would become.

The reality here is that the casinos running these games have financially benefited – regardless of whether this was accidental or due to the intent of one of the involved parties – from misleading players. It should be a trivial task to identify the affected customers and reimburse their losses and this is the very least that the GRA should be ensuring happens.

katie91 is the ‘villain of the piece’ – It’s incontestable that katie91 broke terms and conditions and should be held accountable for ‘her’ breaches. But neither does this change the basic facts of the issue that misleading and deceptive games were in operation at GRA regulated venues nor does it remove the GRA’s obligation to all of the other players who engaged with this game. To dismiss all other players who have all unwittingly been adversely affected by this malpractice (unintentional or not) would be akin to a government discovering that they had over taxed 100 people because of one person who was trying to commit tax fraud, then the government refusing the return the additional tax to the 99 other people because one of their number had committed fraud. It is morally unjustifiable to punish everybody who played this game due to the illegal behaviour of one.

The end of the legitimate industry – Unfortunately, the claims by the GRA that those that disagree with their ruling would seek only “the end of the legitimate industry” are a sever distortion of the truth. The reality is that no-one is backing ‘katie91’ nor are they supporting players who breach the terms of play at online casinos. The repayment and rights of katie91 is not and never have been the important issue. Those rights were lost when ‘she’ chose to break the rules.

What is a significant threat to the legitimate industry in Gibraltar is the GRA’s failure protect the multiple other legitimate players who have been affected, dismissing their additional losses and the casinos additional profits as “not significant” alongside the trivialisation of the failures of several parties to ensure these kinds of deceptive games are not offered. This is a complete failure on the part of the GRA to take any meaningful action in light of what can only be considered extremely serious issues.

In conclusion, I and those that have signed the attached petition am asking that the GRA reconsider their position. In a similar issue overseen by the UKGC – widely regarded to be one of the strongest gambling regulation authorities in the world – which can be found here, a radically different ruling was passed. I’d go as far as to suggest that it would be good practice for the GRA to review this ruling, assess the lessons that can be learned from it and even go as far as to consult with the UKGC about how they approached this issue.

I’ve got the guaranteed winner, it’ll only cost you…..

As long as there has been gambling online, and a good length of time prior even thought they were harder to distribute, there have been conmen trading in lies, deceit and ignorance. It’s far from challenging to find these crooks; they’re everywhere and looking to sell you advice that will do you more harm than good.

What am I talking about here? Gambling System Sellers, that’s what. It’s very easy for the knowledgeable player to identify these clowns, but for those of you without a great deal of experience they’re relying on your own greed to cloud your judgement. That said, they’ll give you ever reason along the way to believe that what they are selling is legitimate.

Before you buy anything, ask yourself these questions – ‘If this system really works why would the seller be offering them to anyone at any affordable price? Does that not just risk the casinos finding out how they are being beaten and stopping it?’ – the answer to both of the questions is likely self-evident in ‘They wouldn’t be’ and ‘If it really did work sharing it out endangers the entire system’.

Let’s take a look at some of the key traits that almost all of these system salesmen have in common;

1. Don’t release the system up front – in almost all bogus system cases, the seller holds the system until you pay a fee. They’ll regularly say that this is so the casinos do not find out how the system works.
2. They’ll offer you this system at a fantastic knock down price, justifying it as a limited time offer or to let players know about this fantastic new system before they raise the price.
3. They’ll give a high hourly earning level but will not provide supporting data to justify their claims.
4. They’ll offer a money back guarantee if you’re not happy with the system within X days.
5. They’ll offer player testimonials.
6. They’ll generally target a low variance game like Blackjack, Baccarat or the even money bets in Roulette rather than a high variance game like Video Poker or Slots (this is a general trend however and is not exclusively true)

So let’s examine some of these factors. Point 1 and 2 go nicely together – they don’t want the casinos to find out about and stop players using this system, but they are selling at a price you can afford. Have a think about that for a moment; who’s likely to be able to afford more, you or a casino? If the casinos were really worried about the damage this system could do to them do you really think they couldn’t cover the cost of the package price to find out the gory details? The system isn’t hidden to stop it becoming known to the casinos, it’s hidden for two reasons – 1) so there’s a reason for you to part with your hard earned cash and 2) so that gaming experts don’t take a look and debunk the system straight away.

If we look at a system that can mathematically be proven to be able to beat casino games, the seminars on Card Counting and other Advantage Play strategies that the Blackjack Science team offer, we can see on their website this statement;

“The Blackjack Science seminars are open to the general public. However, persons affiliated with any casino, or with any detective agency collecting information on professional Blackjack players for casinos, are required to pay an additional fee of $750,000 per seminar, and should expect legal action for triple damages in the event they fail to declare their affiliation. In addition, their presence will be announced to all other Seminar participants ahead of time.”

That clear statement shows genuine intent to avoid educating casino personnel any further, though it should be noted that these techniques are discussed in various books and studies that are freely available and the intent of the addition fee is to protect the identities of attendees rather than the information on the strategies.

The bottom line is that the legal statement above may give a casino pause for thought, whereas a $100 price tag is not going to discourage even a small casino property if they were really interested in the strategy being sold.

Point 4, 5 and 6 also complement each other. Even if I’m selling a system that has no mathematical merit and I sell it to 100 customers, some of them are going to win. The system cost me next to nothing to make – often comprising of a word document sent over email – so my overheads are the cost of running my site alone. If I charge $20 to each customer then I’ll make 100x$20 = $2000. If my system uses a nice low variance game that offer the player close to a 50/50 chance of winning, there’s a very good chance that out of those 100 players, over a short period of a few weeks or a month, close to half of them will come out ahead. So what if I have to refund the ones that lose? The $2000 was all profit, so I essentially lose nothing. And that’s if I chose to honor the refund rather than simply ignore it.

This also works for the Testimonials, as I’ll have some winning players who are convinced the only reason there’s extra money in their pocket is that they bought my system, there will likely be some that are willing to say so on my site – and that’s if I don’t simply choose to make them up. How are is it really to post some pic of a random person I found online with a could of sentences in quotes basically saying “this system totally works!! I’m getting rich!!”

The longer a player plays with a bogus system the more likely it is that they’ll eventually lose, but with a large enough number of players there are always going to be some winners. I don’t particularly want to reinvent the wheel by going on to prove that which many smarter people than me have already done exhaustively so instead of debunking the various money management systems individually I’m going to provide a short list of useful resources or reports that demonstrate how players are fooled and why these systems do not work;

Derren Brown – The System. This is a 1 hour special by a well-known UK illusionist, wherein he gives one lucky player a winning system and lets them risk their life savings on it. It’s a fantastic demonstration of exactly how this sort of phony system is marketed and operates and Brown explains it all at the end. A fantastic watch both entertaining and informative. You can see it here.

Wizard of Odds – Michael Shackleford’s gaming site has extensive treatment of the various progression betting systems you are likely to encounter if you buy one of these systems and for a time at least offered a challenge where he’d wager $20k to your $2k that your betting system would not overcome the house edge in the long run. He was never proven wrong. Read more here.

Blackjack Forum Online – Over the years Arnold Snyder – renowned blackjack author and advantage player – has published several articles dealing with phony system sellers. Here are some of the best –

• http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/One_Million_Roulette_Experts.htm
• http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/betting_systems_martingale_progression.htm
• http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/phony_gambling_systems_big_secrets.htm
• http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Betting_Systems_Oscars_Blackjack_System.htm
• http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/betting_systems_cancellation_progression.htm
• http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/betting_systems_the_overdue_blackjack_system.htm

Norm Wattenberger – author of what is unquestionably the premier blackjack training software every developed. Norm Wattenberger has also put together a site detailing various scam systems and games that he’s encountered while playing blackjack. This site offers a fairly comprehensive treatment of systems that should be avoided at the blackjack tables. (http://www.blackjack-scams.com/)

Wikipedia – Martingale betting system – look at the ‘Mathematical Analysis section for examination of how the classic progression betting system holds up under examination – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28betting_system%29#Mathematical_analysis.

Bogus Systems

Baccarat Barron – http://www.baccaratbaron.com/

Cost – $25.95 (11/3/2013)

Type – Positive Progression

An associate of the site recently brought us a copy of this system that they’d received directly from Baccarat Barron’s site owner for reviewing purposes. The site is selling a 4 page ebook detailing a system that purports to earn $197/hour. From the 4 page booklet, the first 2 pages are solely dedicated to explaining the basic rules of the game, something that can be found for free on this site and many others. The next two pages detail a series of input/output style instructions (i.e. if you’re $40 ahead bet this way) that all amount to a positive progression.

Verdict – Nothing new, interesting or valid here. This system will not overcome the house advantage in the long run.

Common Sense – If this system really worked it supposedly earns $197 in a single hour – it’d take 8 sales to surpass one hour of play!! 8 times the chances the casino could work it out. And how many hours to put together the ‘how to’ guide and website that could have been spent earning $197/hour.

Many talented players interest in gambling and advantage play started at a young age, with a significant relative or friend fuelling their passion or even stumbling upon a book early in their lives that fired their imagination. Could you tell us a little about how you came to work in the field you do and what’s influenced the decisions you’ve made along the way?

Well, I have been interested in probability theory and gambling since my early-teens. But, had no concept of advantage play at the time. In my late-teens, I became interested in gaming simulation. Unfortunately, I had limited access to computers as they were still massive machines in the 1960’s. I really had no knowledge of beating casino games until stumbling upon Thorp’s book in the 70s. On influences, I have been very lucky. As a provider of Blackjack practice and simulation software, I have had the opportunity to talk to a remarkable number of players and researchers over the last couple of decades. The names in the Blackjack field are well known, and there are many players that contribute additional valuable advice and research on the various forums. But, there also exist far more experts that quietly ply their trade in casinos worldwide without public exposure. Years of chatting with such about requested changes to my software and other subjects has been more valuable than all the books and newsletters in my private library. I have also been able to collect private papers, team manuals, and other unpublished works that have influenced my views. Thinking back, I owe a great deal to my users.

When starting out, which count did you learn first? Did you consider any alternatives before deciding on the count you wanted to learn? Would you still start off with this count today or is there another system that has been developed since then that you’d recommend more strongly for an inexperienced player? How much practice did it take for you to become a profitable card counter?

I started with the Thorp Ten Count. A couple weeks later, I visited Lawrence Revere, and have used the Revere Point Count since. Frankly, I made these choices because they were the choices that existed in the mid-1970s. In those days, most people used a Revere count. Today, the most popular counts are HiLo and KO. I don’t know what I’d choose for myself if I started over. But, I suggest HiLo and KO more often than the more complex counts. As for time to become profitable, I was undisciplined when I started and had no concept of risk. Solving the discipline problem depends on the person. Fortunately, risk is much better understood now due to a great deal of research.

Over the years you have helped a huge number of players develop their skills, from inexperienced players to teams looking to tighten up their game; in your opinion what do you feel are the biggest barriers to a new player looking to count cards at a serious level today? Have these barriers changed since you started playing? Is it still possible to make a living counting cards?

No question that the rules have tightened over the decades. But, some of the largest impediments are the same. The first is due to the fact that many new counters started as gamblers. You need to completely cleanse your mind of gambling instincts and addictions. Serious advantage play is a job. The second is bankroll. Most new players underestimate the funds necessary to play with an acceptable level of risk.

Yes, it is possible to make a living counting cards. Although, I never advise anyone to join the life. These days, such players are more likely to spend time traveling to take advantage of casino promotions, looking for rebate deals, looking for advantages from sloppy dealers, looking for advantages in newer variations of games, and pooling funds to decrease risk.

I would also add that people have different goals. Some advantage players play as their main source of income. Some have jobs and pick up a bit of extra income. Some just want to know they can beat the casinos at their own game, enjoy the casino freebies, and really do not need to win.

You’ve consulted with some of the most successful teams ever to play Blackjack, helping them to develop and improve the strategies they’ve used to attack the game. Could you tell us a little about the different issues you’ve consulted on and some of the more interesting strategic problems you’ve helped solve? What do you feel was the benefit to you of helping these groups of players?

Most of my work with teams has been related to calculating projected profit and risk or providing specialized practice software. There are very sophisticated teams, and they don’t need my advice on technique. I have certainly profited by keeping up with techniques in use.

Beyond counting, there are many more advanced strategies that can be applied to beat the game of Blackjack; Shuffle Tracking, Ace Sequencing, Back Card Steering and Hole Carding to name but a few. How viable do you feel these approaches are against the modern game? Do you have much experience applying them yourself? They all generally involve manipulating the game to one degree or another through use of the cut card or selectively choosing the seat you take – what do you feel about the ethical ramifications of such plays? Are they really beating the game or are the beating the situation?

Opportunities for using such techniques have been reduced over the decades, but are certainly still viable, in particular hole-carding. My personal experience in these areas is far more on the analysis side. Generally, these are ethical strategies. However, there are players that I personally feel have gone past an ethical line.

Are there still new techniques to be discussed when it comes to beating blackjack?

Absolutely. (Sorry, that’s all I can say.)

A couple of the more controversial Advantage Play methods to be brought into the public arena in the last few years are Visual Ballistics (training your eye to help narrow where on the Roulette wheel the ball will land) and Dice Control (a technique for creating a higher probability of certain numbers coming up at the Craps table by practicing certain throws). These techniques are hard to validate, as unlike card game where they strategy can be computer simulated and examined over the statistical long run, the player either is skilled enough to perform them or their not and the only way to prove one way or the other is to have the player play a vast number of rounds and record the results. How viable do you feel these techniques are? Are these strategies that a dedicated player really has a chance of mastering or are they a nice idea on paper, but non-transferable to the real world?

I once firmly believed that Roulette was not beatable. Several things changed my mind – but the most important is a major difference between Roulette and other gambling games. In Roulette, you can bet after the game is put into motion. It doesn’t take much thought to realize that this might lead to great opportunity. Yes, the ball has to pass through a gauntlet of frets before coming to rest. But, you don’t have to bet on one number, and you don’t have to be right all the time. If you can narrow it don’t to one quadrant, you can still be wrong half the time and have an enormous advantage. Having said all that, beating Roulette is not an easy task and substantial time is required to find the right dealer and wheel.

Dice control is another matter. Assuming that you are hitting the back wall, I personally don’t believe it is possible. I don’t know this 100%. I just don’t see it.

Several of the more infamous MIT team players have went on to offer seminars and one-to-one training to help players make the most of their game. Is this something you would ever consider doing? Do you feel this sort of mentoring is a worthwhile investment for a new player?

People learn in different ways. Some people are clearly aided by an intense, one-on-one approach. Some prefer reading and chatting. Personally, I can’t stand classrooms – either standing up front or sitting in the audience.

Your impact on the Blackjack world hasn’t been restricted to just playing and giving advice, you’ve also developed the most dynamic card counting training and analysis tool available on the market today. Where did your interest in computer programming stem from? Can you tell us a little about the first programs you developed entirely by yourself?

My first, useful application was rather unusual. Back in the 60’s, there was a joint National Science Foundation, University of Pennsylvania summer course in computing and advanced math. They used LGP-30 computers. These were 700 pound computers with vacuum tubes that were so slow you could see them multiply. But, one year, they found that they could not obtain the use of any of these machines. IBM came to the rescue by loaning them IBM 1130 computers. Only problem was that their course was totally built around the LGP-30 machine language and operating tools and the course was starting in weeks. They asked me to emulate the LGP-30 machine language and operating environment on the 1130s. Rather a ridiculous request as I was 17 at the time. Anyhow, I wrote an operating system and emulator which they used for the course, and I then spent the summer goofing off. Rather lucky for me as it started my career.

What was the initial spark that lead you to thinking about using your programming skills to develop a Blackjack training tool? Were you involved in programming for game analysis prior to that? How has Casino Verite evolved since its first release? Do you have any plans that you can tell us about for future development?

PCs were becoming popular, I wanted to gain experience in programming a PC, and offerings in Blackjack were mostly pitiful. The first release of CV was designed to run on a PC with one megabyte of RAM. A typical PC today has four gigabytes — 4,000 times as much RAM. So, there really isn’t much in common between the first and current versions. On the future, I don’t like to talk about new versions until shortly before they are due. I am constantly changing directions based on opportunities, and don’t like to talk about something unless I’m reasonably certain of timely release.

You’ve also developed software to act as a companion to the NFL and NBA sports handicapping of Dan Gordon and Lawrence Scott’s visual and audial Roulette systems. What new challenges did developing these products present?

Well, making a profit with niche software like this is an impossibility. But, I’m glad I participated in the projects as they gave me new insights into advantage play.

You’ve also authored two books – Modern Blackjack Vol I and II. Unusually however you went down the route of publishing them for free on the internet first and then offering hard copies for sale to those who want them. What was the thought process behind publishing the book for free? (you can find Modern Blackjack at http://qfit.com/book/index.htm)

Patience is not one of my virtues. I looked at the efforts of friends in selling a book and then dealing with the interminable process of getting it in print, had all these pages typed up and edited by Don Schlesinger, and couldn’t bear the concept of waiting a year for it to appear. So, I put it online. When requests for hardcopies came in, I followed Katarina Walker’s path when she self-published her great book, The Pro’s Guide to Spanish 21 and Australian Pontoon.

You’re well known as a prolific Advantage Play message board poster and have recently set up BlackjackTheForum.com to fill the void left by the closure of Ken Smith’s BlackjackInfo.com message boards. What benefits do you personally feel you gain from contribution to such forums? Are they useful places for inexperienced players to get quality advice about the game? Advantage Play forums are notorious for ‘flame wars’ as posters often question the motives and skills of their fellow forum members. How do you approach moderating such a volatile community in a fair and reasonable manner?

I was very sad to see Ken Smith’s board close for new posts. I had no interest in running a forum myself, as I had talked to others about the problems and had had some experience myself in the ARPANET days. I liken it to horn-blowing in traffic. If you are standing in a line at the grocery store, and the person in front of you is slow at paying, you don’t yell at the top of your lungs. But, in a car, wrapped in two tons of steel and glass, people tend to lean on their horns. And on the Internet, wrapped in their homes, some people tend to destroy the experience for others, and in some cases, cause serious damage.

A couple of weeks after Ken made his closing announcement, a new Blackjack site appeared with an un-moderated “Outlaw” forum suggesting that Ken’s members join. There was no way that I was going to participate on a forum that had an un-moderated section. Luckily, I just happened to own an unused Vbulletin license and was familiar with its operation. Within two hours, I put up an alternative site, which became BlackjackTheForum.com. So far, we’ve been lucky in keeping flame-wars squelched, partially due to a no politics or religion rule, and partially due to the fact that people saw what happened on Ken’s site and didn’t want to see a repeat.

You also run another site – http://www.blackjack-scams.com/ – that specifically focuses in on the different dishonest systems whether that be unfair rules or procedures offered by various offline casino or the host of bogus systems being sold online. When did it first occur to you to compile this information on its own site? What was the impetuous behind setting this site up? Was it just simply trying to protect players or was there a specific incident that motivated you to put this project together?

I don’t like cons, and gambling addicts are easy prey for conmen. There are professionals in the gambling field. There are people that play purely for entertainment, and budget for a loss. Then, there are problem gamblers looking for get-rich schemes. I don’t want a user of mine’s spouse waking up to find the toaster pawned, and I link to the National Council on Problem Gambling on most of the pages on my main site.

The specific incident behind the Blackjack Scams site, was the invention of 6:5 Blackjack, which I believe to be the largest scam every perpetrated in casino history, far more costly than all the scam gambling systems pedaled on the ‘Net. Indeed, 6:5 Blackjack is a contradiction in terms. If Blackjack pays 6:5, it ain’t Blackjack.

In recent months we’ve seen some progress toward the US re-joining – at least partially – the online gaming market. How do you feel about this? Do you think it’s likely that US customers will ever again be allowed to play wherever they want?

The UIGEA (Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act) was snuck into a port security act literally in the middle of the night, never debated, never read before Congress, not seen by the Senate-House Conference Committee that approved the overall bill, and voted on by the Senate and House even though only a handful of the legislators knew the language had been added. The rest of the world must find is humorous that the “Land of the Free” is one of the few places where you don’t have the freedom to use I’Net gambling sites. Having gotten that of my chest, it’s impossible to say what this area will look like five years from now. Legislation proposed so far appears to try to limit players to playing in their own states or within some other boundaries. Sounds like a gross violation of international trade law. But, the U.S. has been ignoring WTO rulings for years related to Internet gambling. In some form or other, the U.S. will again see online gambling. If we are lucky, we will see opportunities, at least in the earlier days, from promotions made necessary by competition. After all, it is much easier to travel from one online site to another than one brick-and-mortar casino to another – and that engenders competition. On the other hand, U.S. casinos are far more greedy than in the golden days of Las Vegas gaming, and have a habit of slow learning.

Finally, in a life long past I used to be involved in music journalism and I’m always fascinated to hear about different people’s tastes and opinions when it comes to music. Could you give us your top five albums?

No. I can’t because it depends on my mood, or the mood I want to move to. And five is far, far too few. In my younger days, I’d wake up, and put on a cut before going off to work. Then another cut. After a while, I’d realize the sun had gone down and I had forgotten to go to work. I’m not that nutty these days; but I get upset at myself, and Apple, if I’m out and my iPod battery runs out.

It’s a rare album where I like more than one or two cuts. I still listen to Led Zeppelin, Cream, Dylan and many others from older days. Side story. I was mistaken for Jimmy Page by a pit boss at Caesar’s Palace in the 80s. Could have had great fun trashing a suite if only I could have faked a British accent. Lately, I’ve posted videos on the misc. page on my forum from disparate artists like Joe Bonamassa, The Kills, Dido, Sully Erna, White Stripes, Beth Hart, and Tom Waits. No good songs about Blackjack come to mind. But, my iPod does include Leonard Cohen’s piece “The Stranger Song” about a Poker player.

In analyzing the past NFL season of picks, one doesn’t need to look too far to see our first good point, a 23.9% profit. The bottom line of any sports bettor is to make money on their wagers. With that in mind, this past season was a success, to at least some degree. A near 24% gain in bankroll growth in just over a 3 month span is pretty good, actually if you could do that in conventional investing every quarter it would be amazing. However, the volatility of such a gain was one I would feel the need to smooth out a bit moving forward. There were times where at the beginning of the season we were down almost -20%, while there were times during this same season we were up well over 50%. The end result settled in a comfortable profit margin, but I believe as I move forward with future seasons, my handicapping must move to more consistent results. Of course there are going to be many swings positive and negative throughout the season, but the goal is to put a more tolerant threshold on the spikes and valleys. I believe this is possible and I am taking steps forward in that direction.

The next point of interest that has the same element of good and bad in its makeup is my overall record of wins and losses. At first glance it would be a check in the bad column. With a total season record of 37-36-2, that is just barely over a 50% winning percentage. In a standard handicapping method of flat betting the same amount per wager, a winning percentage of 52.5% is needed to just break even due to the house take, or “vig”, on losses. So with that being said my winning percentage numbers would be inferior to a winning game, if my method were not different. Thankfully it is. Don’t get me wrong, I am not satisfied in the least with my current winning percentage, but with properly weighted wagers, I managed to generate a rather huge profit in comparison to a very meager win loss record. This means that when the proposed strength of a positive outcome increased, so did our wager. Basically, based on a wagering spread of 1-10 units, we not only determined if a game was right to pick as winner, but what was the strength of the wager to be placed. I find this to be very important information to anyone doing any kind of betting. As you can see, placing the right size bets can drastically impact the success of the bettor. So to break it down further, My overall win percentage was just 50.68%. However, looking at my win percentage at wagers placed at 5 units or higher it increases dramatically to 58.06% with a record of 36-26. That points out a few things to me that seem significant. First off I picked miserably on my lower percentage wagers where I thought there was an advantage but not necessarily a big one. That leads me to believe that I need to re evaluate my system on finding borderline advantage games. Going 1-10 on the lower advantage plays is unacceptable, and when corrected, will greatly improve on our system and ultimately our profits. Just as a note, we went 6-0 on our max bets, meaning of course they stand at 100%. It’s a very small sample of games and something that offers no real insight, but nonetheless, it’s a stat I’m proud of so far, and plan on building on it in the future.

I look back on when I first started analyzing games this season and I find it quite amazing at how different my approach became as the season wore on. I have always been a huge fan of the NFL and have followed it fairly closely. I knew largely just about what every other fan knows about the game. When I offered ThePogg my handicapping services this past season, I really didn’t know what I was getting into. I have made a good living finding advantages playing blackjack in the casino and I thought I could translate that into sportsbetting as well. I learned fairly early the average knowledge of what a fan possess is not enough to forge through a whole NFL season making a profit wagering on games every week. It became clear to me that sifting through sports articles and listening to “expert” analysis on TV and radio sport shows would not be enough in truly becoming a competent handicapper. Listening to opinions will not give the understanding needed to properly evaluate a games worth or advantage. I found one must be able to breakdown the teams and all the game variables to actually come up with numbers of your own. Line spreads and game totals is what my bets have been based on all this past season. Many of these numbers that are given by the bookmakers move in the direction of the public’s perception of the game and not necessarily with the actual game factors. It’s in these games where the values can be found and exploited for a bettor’s gain. But general knowledge of the game won’t do it. Watching NFL pregame shows with commentators and ex jocks will not give you the optimal numbers nor will they give you a weighted value of bet strength. That’s ok, that’s why I’m here, I do. My system has evolved from typical fan gathering info, to assessing power rankings among teams and players, to finally devising my own rankings and tracking trends. The good thing is, my system is still evolving, and as far as we have moved forward this year, I plan to make even bigger strides next season. This coming season we will be developing software that will actually be able to simulate the data input and bring to life hopefully very accurate conclusions to game stats and outcomes. I find it to be a very exciting development in the handicapping arsenal and I love the idea of all my data gathering being able to be truly tested. Of course, there is more to picking these NFL games than pure data input, there are many organic qualities to measure as well. But every tool added to the box makes for a more complete set able to better get the job done.

I look forward to this coming season, as I am very confident we can improve on are already successful system. I hope all who followed last season did so diligently, and if so enjoyed the economic boost we were able to provide their bankroll. A near 24% season profit was a fair take this season. I’m not prepared to offer up any goal figures for the upcoming season other than to make it a profitable one and to improve dramatically over the success of this last one. So look for the picks to start up again in September when the NFL regular season begins. It should be a great one!

Most of this article was authored by our resident casino software expert Binary 128 (you can chat to him on the message boards). Binary 128 is one of the developers behind GaleWind Software, the casino platform for Pinnacle sportsbook.

What is a Random Number Generator (RNG) and how does it work?

In an online casino a Random Number Generator (RNG) is something that returns a number to whatever asks it for a number. It’s as simple as that.

Let’s use European Roulette (single Zero) as an example. The “wheel” spins, and needs to stop on a number between zero and 36. So, the “wheel” asks the RNG for a number between zero and 36. The RNG returns 17.

The RNG doesn’t know or care what is asking for that number. The ONLY thing that it does – when something asks it for a number within a range, then it makes sure that any number in that range has exactly the same chance of being returned as any other number.

• When a European Roulette “wheel” asks it for a number between zero and 36, then zero has exactly the same chance of being returned as 1, or 17, or 36.
• When a Video Poker “dealer” asks it for a number between 1 and 52, then 1 has exactly the same chance of being returned as 2, or 23, or 52.

And that’s it. The RNG doesn’t know that in one case it is a Roulette “wheel” that is asking, and in another case it is a Video Poker “dealer” that is asking. It doesn’t know what the number is for, or how it is going to be used.

In that way, the RNG is one of the stupidest parts of online casino software. Something asks it for a number, it returns a number, and its job is done (until something else asks it for another number).

Again, the ONLY thing that an RNG does – when something asks it for a number within a range, then it makes sure that any number in that range has exactly the same chance of being returned as any other number.

What does this mean?

The most important part of the Quick Answer was the statement – When something asks the RNG for a number within a range, then the RNG makes sure that any number in that range has exactly the same chance of being returned as any other number.

When the Roulette “wheel” spins, and asks the RNG for a number between zero and 36, the RNG returns 17. When the “wheel” spins again and asks the RNG for another number, 17 has exactly the same chance of being returned as any other number. And when the “wheel” spins again, then again 17 has exactly the same chance of being returned as any other number.

When Players see the number 17 returned three, or four, or five times in a row (or even more), then they start thinking “Hey, this isn’t a random wheel! Is this game rigged!” That’s because people see things in “patterns”. People like to see “patterns” so much that they can see them in things even when there are no real “patterns” there at all. (Let’s call it imagination.)

But, like I said earlier, RNGs are just amazingly stupid. They have absolutely no imagination. AND, they have no memory. They don’t know what the last number they gave was, what the requested range was, who asked for it – nothing – no imagination, and no memory.

So, for an RNG, returning the number 17 to a Roulette “wheel” three, or four, or five times in a row is … random. It doesn’t happen very often, and because it doesn’t happen very often the Player notices it even more. If the Roulette “wheel” stops on:

14, 12, 2, 3, 2, 34, 27, 21, 6, 15, 13, 22, 36, 9, 0, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17

Those five 17s in a row stick out like a sore thumb. “Hey, this isn’t random. How can you have a pattern with five 17s in a row?”

There is no doubt – it can be a little confusing to think about it.

But if we look at that sequence of numbers above, then the first five numbers – 14, 12, 2, 3, 2 – have exactly the same chance of being returned as the last five numbers – 17, 17, 17, 17, 17. That is, the exact return order of 14, 12, 2, 3, 2 has the same chance of happening as the exact return order of 17, 17, 17, 17, 17.

This last part can be difficult to really understand, but … that is random.

How does a Random Number Generator guarantee that any number in a requested range has exactly the same chance of being returned as any other number?

There are two methods to a Random Number Generator (RNG). The first method is the one that generates a random number – I’ll call this method Generate. The second method transforms that random number into something that can be used by whatever asked for it – I’ll call this method Scale.

The Generate method

There are 2 different types of things that can Generate a random number – the first is a piece of hardware, and the second is a piece of software. A hardware example is the QUANTIS product from a company named ID Quantique. A software example is named the Mersenne Twister Algorithm.

The VAST majority of online casino programs use a piece of software to Generate, and the Mersenne Twister is a very common software program. (Galewind Software uses it.) When I use examples in all of this documentation, I’ll tend to focus on the Mersenne Twister.

The Generate method usually returns a number from one of two different Generate Ranges (depending on the software). Range #1 is [0 to 0.999999999999999]. Range #2 is [0 to 4,294,967,295]. (The Mersenne Twister uses Range #2.)

The most important contribution of the Generate method to the RNG’s performance – over the millions, or billions (or trillions) of numbers that it is asked to return:

1. there is no observable pattern to those numbers (aka Correlation).
2. those numbers are equally distributed across the Generate Range (aka Bias).

In other words, the Generate method returns a Random Number. No Correlation is the “no one can guess the next number” guarantee. No Bias is the “every number has an equal chance” guarantee.

There are all sorts of tests that can be run on the numbers that the Generate method returns to determine their “quality” as “random numbers”. (Link to Test Details 1. Link to Test Details 2.)

(The “quality” of the “random numbers” returned by the Mersenne Twister Algorithm is considered excellent.)

The Scale method

Since a large number of online casino software uses the Mersenne Twister to Generate, let’s focus on the Mersenne Twister to talk about Scale.

As we’ve seen, the Mersenne Twister’s Generate method returns a random number in the Generate Range of 0 to 4,294,967,295. Obviously, these numbers are of no use to a Roulette “wheel” that is asking for a value between 0 and 36. The Generate method’s random number has to be transformed into a number that can be used by the “wheel”. Most importantly, it needs to be transformed without messing up the “quality” of the Generate method’s “random number”.

Here is one way to make that happen.

The Mersenne Twister’s Generate Range (including 0) is 4,294,967,296 numbers. The Roulette “wheel’s” requested range is 37 numbers. Divide 4,294,967,296 by 37, and we get 116,080,197.18919. Throw away the decimal and we get 116,080,197. Now set up 37 “number bins”, one for each of the Roulette “wheel’s” requested range. The first bin will return to the “wheel” the number 0, the second bin will return the number 1, and so forth. The last bin will return the number 36. Into each of these “number bins” we put exactly 116,080,197 numbers. The first bin will contain the numbers 0 to 116,080,196. The second bin will contain the numbers 116,080,197 to 232,160,393. The last bin will contain the numbers 4,178,887,092 to 4,294,967,288. Finally, we ask the Mersenne Twister to Generate a random number – it returns 2,031,403,430. (Bin 18, which returns the “wheel” number 17, contains the numbers 1,973,363,349 to 2,089,443,545). So, the Generate number 2,031,403,430 returns the Scale number 17 to the Roulette “wheel”.

A Final Note

You can see that the highest number that the Mersenne Twister’s Generate method can return is 4,294,967,295. But the highest number in the last Roulette “wheel” bin is 4,294,967,288. This is a difference of seven numbers.

If the Mersenne Twister’s Generate method sends into the Scale method one of these seven numbers, then the ScaleScale method asks the Generate method for another number.

If we were to include these seven numbers in our 37 bins, then:

1. either seven bins would have 1 number more than the other thirty bins.
2. or one bin (the last bin?) would have 7 numbers more than the other 36 bins.

Neither of these solutions would be acceptable to a “High Quality” RNG. Here, I think, we have an example that people can understand of what a “High Quality” RNG means.

For our Roulette “wheel”, each bin contains exactly 116,080,197 numbers. If one of these bins contained even 1 number more than the others – 116,080,198 numbers, a difference of 0.0000009% – this would not be acceptable to a “High Quality” RNG. This would mean that, over billions and billions of spins, this bin’s wheel value would appear once, twice, maybe 3 times more than it should appear.

A difference of 3 times out of 10 billion spins is significant to a “High Quality” RNG!

Does a fair RNG assure me that I’m getting a fair game?

Not by itself. As stated above all an RNG does is ensure that any number in that range has exactly the same chance of being returned as any other number.

Let’s give an example of a situation wherein the RNG is fair, but the game is not.

An RNG is set to select a number between 1 and 74 for a European Roulette game and we assign the numbers that the RNG returns the following results on the Roulette wheel.

Now looking at the above table it should be clear to see that the odd numbers are going to come out 3 times as often as an even number. Clearly in this example, this Roulette wheel isn’t returning fair results (those which you’d expect to receive playing at a real Roulette wheel) despite the fact that the RNG is functioning perfectly. This is a grossly simplified example of how a game could manipulate a correctly functioning RNG to deliver bias results (in fact this particular game could easily be beaten by any player who realised that odd numbers were coming out more than they should), but it illustrates the point well. How the game uses the results that the RNG returns are as important to receiving a fair game as the RNG functioning correctly is.

What purpose does RNG testing serve?

The vast majority of casinos will display a seal from one company or another stating that their RNG has been tested and approved as random. They advertise this as if it’s done for the players benefit – in fact this testing has far less to do with protecting the player than the casino.

As shown above, a correctly functioning RNG can still be used to create unfair results for the player. However a RNG that doesn’t function correctly is just as likely to help the player as hurt them. The RNG just returns a number. If it malfunctions and returns one number more often than the others, whether that helps or hurts the player completely depends on the game that requests the number and how it uses the result.

More than this, an RNG that functions at an insufficient level can be used by players to predict what future results will be, which for obvious reasons would put the casino at a substantial disadvantage. This has actually resulted in players winning notable sums in offline Video Poker in at least one instance.

While having a correctly functioning RNG is essential to a casino providing you the normal game you expect to receive, testing RNG’s protect the casino to a far greater degree than any assurance it offers the player.

It should be stressed however RNG testing is a cornerstone of proving that casino games are fair. Without first proving the RNG is functioning any game testing will prove absolutely nothing. RNG testing is the essential first step that is required if a casino are offering fair games.

Someone once asked me why women don’t gamble as much as men do, and I gave the common-sensical reply that we don’t have as much money. That was a true but incomplete answer. In fact, women’s total instinct for gambling is satisfied by marriage.

Gloria Steinam: journalist, feminist and social and political activist.

When I think back to my life some years ago I can safely say that, like Gloria I had little or no interest in gambling – on my marriage partner or otherwise! Her answer is even further from complete than she imagined. What she failed to acknowledge is that gambling is very much a man’s world and the women who make an attempt to exist in it have to be imbued with special qualities in order to survive. It can be aggressive and inhospitable or treat women with shameful condescension or over-sexualisation. As a woman you have to learn to beat the system by playing up to these stereotypes. I have never been a gambler and this assertion still applies today. I am an advantage player and I am a woman – but guess what – that’s just another very desirable advantage!

In my dim and distant past I had no idea that one day I would be able to call myself an advantage player (I didn’t even know what one was!) or that I’d fly thousands of miles multiple times to play Blackjack with a team of people (all men) I knew only fleetingly. I have been told that in many ways I’m the perfect candidate for such an operation being as I’m a young, not unattractive (not my words!), female. Supposedly I’m too busy curling my hair or polishing my nails to have time to learn to play with an advantage or to use my brain for anything too taxing, if indeed it is capable of such feats! No dealer, pit boss or member of a casino security team is likely to think I’m up to no good – primarily because of my gender – but also as a result of my nationality – I don’t fit the American national stereotype typically viewed as threatening the industry’s profit margins! Why then was I terrified of being caught? Why was I absolutely sure that every single member of the casino team had their eyes trained on me as soon as I walked onto the casino floor? Why did I suddenly realise after discovering a pain in my chest that I must have been holding my breath for at least a couple of minutes whilst surveying the huge pits? Lack of experience I’d guess! Despite the fact that I’d played with an advantage in numerous smaller European casinos many many times prior to the extended trips – nothing could prepare me for working with a whole team of people that I had never seen before but had to keep track of all night in casinos five or ten times the size of the ones I was familiar with! If this scenario sounds challenging times this by ten and you are in the right ballpark!

So I’d guess you are wondering right about now how on earth an Arts graduate who had never stepped into a casino, played anything other than snap with cards, or logged in to an online casino in her life ended up being a competent advantage player who spent hours every night honing her skills? Thought so! Well – I met a man who was to change my life (for the better) in ways too diverse to catalogue here. On our first date (to the cinema – not to see the film 21 – which incidentally is nothing like the real world of advantage play!) my eyes were met by the sight of him standing shuffling a pack of cards nervously whilst awaiting my arrival. I admit I did think it was strange and I wondered momentarily what the hell I’d let myself in for but I did not pursue this line of thought – primarily because he bought me a family size bag of Revels and dodging the coffee ones kept me busy for at least half of the film! We have been together ever since that date but I think it was about the third time we saw each other that he revealed exactly what he’d been doing that night. He was teaching himself to memorise the order of cards in a deck by assigning each card with a key word. This was something I found interesting because I’d used similar techniques myself to help remember formulae and spellings and the like. However, it wasn’t until another couple of weeks in that he tentatively mentioned card counting and this was soon to be followed by a catalogue of other advantage play techniques.

I’d guess that you can see where this was heading and without too much further ado I was thrust into the midst of the world of basic strategy which I thought was terrifying! I clung to the little chart that he had thoughtfully made up for me as I scanned its rows and columns desperate to make a good impression. Little did I know that it would soon become second nature to me and that the real terrors of bet spreads, deck estimations, true count calculations and then shuffle tracking lay just around the corner!

The recent rise in popularity of advantage play as a subject for popular media (films, documentaries and books) paints a somewhat over-glamourised picture of the life of real advantage players. I can honestly say that my partner and myself and our shared enjoyment of learning such advanced techniques make us an exception rather than a rule. Many advantage players sacrifice the luxuries of permanent homes and relationships in order to travel continually so that they can perform their Arts. It can be a lonely life and one which almost makes those living it feel schizophrenic in a way – always altering and finding new personalities in order to allow you to do your job in an ever-changing taffeta of conditions. On trips think 5 or 6 in a room with one bed. Think playing overnight into the new hours of the next morning as ‘normal’ people are deep in slumber in their own homes. Think walking around on heavy legs for hours as you look for opportunities for the big player (more on that later) to make money that will make the trip worthwhile. It is a career that is by turns exhausting and rewarding but by all accounts it is not for the faint-hearted.

This is predicated by the fact that it is by no means a pass time for those lacking in patience either. I have encountered many people along the way who have had their interest piqued by the thought of the excitement of the chase and the kindred feeling of playing together to beat the casino system. Of those who expressed an interest to learn the Art alongside myself and my partner none managed to stick around for the long haul. The glitter of fascination soon dulls as the reality of the work involved in being able to pull off such feats covers it. Yes – it may well be an excellent party trick to predict when an Ace or Face is about to peak from the pack but it is a mere few who are willing to sit for hours flashing cards for a partner to train their eye to register a hint of something to accomplish this objective. Even the keeping of an accurate running count whilst playing perfect basic strategy is a Herculean task for many and they simply aren’t willing to put in the hours of practice necessary every single night in order to build the skill level required to be totally accurate. For most people the rewards just cannot be cashed in quickly enough to satisfy their needs. They want the big career making win – they aren’t interested in grinding out the smaller advantages and spending hours scouting out games that give the player that necessary edge.

This is a brief glimpse into the forays of a woman in a man’s world. If you’d like to read more about my experiences then keep an eye on this website for further articles on the subject appearing in the near future.

Many professional blackjack players found early in their lives they had a real interest in card games, gambling, or figuring out ways to beat the system early in their lives. Was there a person or event that looking back specifically influenced the direction your life took?

Well, I always had an interest in competing, whether it was in sports, trivial pursuit, or in my career. But there was something about the science of blackjack that really drew me in. I liked the idea that the harder I worked at it, the more significantly I could get better. That’s not necessarily the case with other things I enjoy, like golf. Growing up, I was often getting into trouble, but usually it was just a case of being overly curious. I guess it’s just in my nature.

At the start of The Blackjack Life you tell us how reading Ben Mezrich’s books on the MIT teams of the late 90′s early 00′s really captured your imagination. You went on to train with both Semyon Dukach and Mike Aponte. Both these men were/are highly respected and profitable players. How did the real people compare to the characters in Mezrich’s books? What did you get out of your experiences with these guys? How did they help you develop your game?

They were completely different than I had imagined. Mike (“Fisher” in the book), wasn’t portrayed too favourably. And Semyon was depicted as all flash. But both guys, as different as they are from one another, were both down to earth. You could tell that they were eager to help out. And I really appreciated that.

Do you feel you could have reached the levels of success that you eventually did without Mike Aponte taking the interest in you that he did? Do you feel having a more experienced player ‘mentor’ you makes that big a difference to your chances of success?

Of course, there’s no question that Mike’s mentoring really helped take my game up several notches. Most importantly, his talent provided me a much needed benchmark for evaluating my own skills. As a player, his skills are legit and I was obsessive about getting to that level. I think everyone is motivated by people in different ways. Certainly Mike was one of the big influences in my career early on. But I also continued to get better and grow in the years after my time with Mike.

Ultimately you ended up choosing to use the Hi/Lo counting system. Was this decision based solely on what Mike Aponte recommended? Why do you feel that one of the oldest counting systems developed is still the best when multi-level counts offer a greater advantage?

When I first started, I so was naïve to the blackjack world that I just assumed there was only one way to count cards. By the time I realized there were other options, I was too engrossed in Hi-Lo. Counting systems are often debated on blackjack discussion boards, but the premise of them all remains the same: as your advantage grows, so should your bet size. Many people consider Hi-Lo to provide the most bang for your buck. It’s a pretty powerful counting system that can be implemented with relative ease. I didn’t see a need to try something else.

You now run Semyon Dukach’s former website – BlackjackScience.com – where you provide seminars and training for novice blackjack players. Obviously it takes more than a few hours, or even several days, to become a winning blackjack player. What do you feel is the most important advice you can give to players who want to learn to beat the house? How do you approach training them in a seminar format?

Any good teacher has to get a sense of where the student is and where they want to be, before showing how to get there. Most students come to me with a desire to “win big” and believe that their skill set is better than it actually is. So I have to temper both by managing their expectations with how volatile the game is and how much more work they need to put in. My advice is always the same, though. If they want to get great, they have to put in a lot of practice. The edge in this game is so slim that each skill involved in counting cards needs to be incredibly sharp. And that requirement turns a lot of player away, or worse, has them head to the casinos ill-prepared. I always joke that I’d love to have to have six-pack abs, but that doesn’t mean I’m willing to put the effort into making that happen. Aspiring pros have to put in the effort first.

You ended up in the very fortunate position of having Semyon Dukach helping you out early on after attending one of his seminars and ultimately putting you in contact with Mike Aponte. Have you ever been tempted to take one of your seminar attendees under your wing and help them develop their game?

That’s a great question. When D.A. and I first met Mike, we were far along with our training and he was able to see our potential. A lot of the consultations I provide are with players just starting out, or small teams that just need to fine-tune their team play, so it doesn’t really come up that much. But if I were to find the right person, I’d love to help them evolve with the game, if they wanted that from me.

When Semyon was running BlackjackScience.com he used to run seminars on Shuffle Tracking, Back Card Steering and Ace Sequencing – these advanced strategies are the strategies that made Semyon’s teams so much money and are notoriously difficult to perform, with even small errors being very very costly. Have you ever tried playing any of them? If not, what do you feel are the pros and cons of these strategies? Are they something you’d consider building in to your repertoire in the future?

That was never my forte. I certainly studied those techniques and trained for them, but I was never particularly good at it all. Like you said, it can be incredibly lucrative or incredibly expensive, and I decided to just maximize what I was good at, which was counting and small team play. What’s not in my book is the extensive work that I have done with scavenger betting, which includes buying other player’s hands, taking their action when they want even money on a blackjack vs. an ace, taking the rest of their action when they double for less, and even selling bad hands that other people might want to buy. There’s a real art to it all that I enjoy. The timing has to be perfect and you have to build rapport with the other players. But if done well, it can boost EV.

From day one you were training and playing with a partner. It’s very uncommon – due to egos, conflicts of interest and break downs of trust – for blackjack players to work together over the long term. What do you feel have been the keys to your successful partnership over the years?

There’s no doubt that trust is a huge factor. But trust is multi-layered. It’s not just about trusting that your teammate won’t steal money from you. It’s trusting that they’re as committed to the team as you are. It’s trusting that they’re as skilled. It’s trusting that they have your back. Fortunately, when D.A. and I met at Semyon’s seminar, something just clicked. We were both living in Boston with lots of free time. So we would practice, have a few beers, and chat about life. We got to know each other well, and we were both so competitive about getting good, trust wasn’t really an issue. In addition to trust, though, I think communication is a big part of it. You have to be able to talk things through when times get tough or have permission to challenge each other to get better if someone’s skills aren’t as sharp as they should be. If you can’t speak up when things need to be said, then resentment can build and then it’s harder to trust.

Playing on a team can improve the amount you can expect to earn when playing blackjack, but it also poses a large variety of challenges. For you what made playing with someone else the best way to approach the game?

In our case, we were both so competitive. As you interview me right now, D.A. is probably out practicing or reading a blackjack book or article, it’s killing me that I’m not keeping up! In all seriousness, we perfected the delicate balance of encouraging each other to get better, but also wanting to outperform in any checkouts we had. I wanted to be the best card counter in the world and have D.A. be the second best. I think it’s harder for solo players to get motivated like that.

Your book The Blackjack Life discusses at length taking many of the strategies applied by the MIT teams in groups of 4 or 5 and modifying them to work with your 2 player team. These newly modified strategies have started a lot of players thinking amongst the blackjack community and have genuinely revolutionised many players approach to the game. How much do you feel these new techniques affected your lifespan as a player? Was there a ‘eureka’ moment when you were thinking about how you played that really changed the way you approached the game?

Any pro will tell you that there’s not one strategy in my book that was new to the blackjack community. But what was different about our system was how we moved in and out of various strategies within a playing session. We felt like if we could move from back counting and wonging, to big player call-ins, to gorilla big player signaling at the table… all within one session… it would be difficult to detect. And it was. Once we added our balanced betting, which consists of betting varying amounts on different spots, but having them add up to the near-optimal wager, we realized that we had something special. The combination of them all, at just the right times, was the secret to our success.

In your book, The Blackjack Life, you pretty much lead in with the fact that your blackjack career as described throughout the book is over. Did you realize while still playing that a book would be in your future? What was the motivating factor that led you to create this book of your life and times of a card counting blackjack player?

My father-in-law, who has published several books, urged me to put pen to paper and tell my story. At first I was reluctant. I always thought of myself as a decent writer, but I didn’t want to write another Bringing Down the House, and I certainly had no interest in writing a text book on the subject. But then I realized that so many books either focus on the experiences of big teams or the science of solo play. I wanted to highlight the value of small team play in a way that would appeal to both students of the game and casual readers. I could imagine a couple of buddies wanting to learn the game, but not wanting to on their own and not being able to find a big team to play on. So I told myself that I’d just write a few pages and see if it went anyway. Three days later, I had written about 100 pages and knew I was on to something. But it never dawned on me during my playing days that I’d someday write a book.

I feel your blackjack story is unique as compared to the somewhat similar stories that have been told already. There seems to be a very relatable quality to it for the average person to experience. Why do you think that is?

Thanks. Blackjack subject matter can be intimidating for people, especially those who are new to the game. I think my book shows that you don’t need to go to MIT to be successful at it. You just have to have a relentless enthusiasm. My publisher, Huntington Press, and others, have described me as an “average guy,” which is a term that still makes me cringe when I hear it today. But most people relate to that better than to “MIT genius.” People want to believe that they can accomplish great things. And they can. I hope that message is conveyed. I also worked hard to write the manuscript in an authentic way, highlighting the excitement I experienced, but also painting a real picture of the many struggles I endured along the way.

It’s clear from reading your book that you and your teammate D.A. approached blackjack as a business. However, was there ever a time or instance as you became more and more successful in your blackjack career that it affected you outside of the playing spectrum? Kind of like, as the bankroll grows so does the comps and perks the casino offers, did the growing high roller treatment ever affect your attitude or personality outside the casino? Did you ever find yourself playing one of your blackjack persona’s in your personal life just out of habit?

One of our acts was that we were old friends, constantly giving each other shit, much to the amusement of the pit and dealers. It offered us great cover and flexibility. But sometimes after a session like that, we’d be hanging out and continuing to give each other shit, until we realized that we could just be normal again. Other than that, I think about how difficult it was to re-engage in the real world after returning from a trip. Here we were, being wined and dined, going to big fights and shows, staying in luxurious suites, and being driven around Vegas in a limo, only to come back to a Boston morning commute (which is miserable), a 9-to-5 job, and lunch in the office park’s cafeteria. There’s some culture shock. And I wanted so badly to tell my stories to friends, but it always felt like it would sound like bragging. So I mostly just kept it all to myself. I had my regular life as a financial advisor and I had my blackjack life. The two have always remained separate.

Did you find it difficult to actually write the book yourself? What do you think is more challenging, being a top blackjack player, or a now top blackjack author? How did you come to get hooked up with Anthony Curtis and Huntington Press to get your book published? What was that process like?

Writing the book came easily because I just told my story as it happened. It took me about 9 months before I felt that it was in good enough shape to start looking for a publisher. A lot of my chapters start with quotes from other APs and, as a courtesy, I wanted to make sure they were ok with that. So I reached out to Anthony, since many of the authors I quoted were part of the Huntington Press stable. He asked me to send him the manuscript and I eventually met him at his office in Las Vegas. It was a little surreal. I knew a lot about Anthony and his work on Las Vegas Advisor, and I saw him on Travel Channel specials. Initially, he said that they were too focused on poker, but that if they decided to do a blackjack book, he’d strongly consider mine. I was on my flight home from Vegas when he sent me an email that said, “I think we do this.” That was a great moment for me. I was really proud that Huntington Press would be my publisher. I’ve got a tremendous amount of respect and gratitude for Anthony taking a shot on me. Not to mention, it was an honor to work with Arnold Snyder who edited the entire book.

Without divulging too much that may hinder any future exploits, do you still play at all anymore? If so does being the author of a book such as yours change the playing experience in any way or minimize it?

It’s probably the question I get asked the most. I specifically withheld certain techniques from the book that we used, just in case I returned to the game. So writing the book didn’t mean that I couldn’t return to playing some day. And I think it’s way overblown that anyone who writes a book on blackjack using their real name is immediately ousted from every casino they step foot in. There are so many ways around that. But as far as whether or not I’m still active, I’ll just leave that up to your imagination.

We both know that certain top notch players over time may get their welcome burnt out in most casinos throughout the country, as well as even many other countries. These players that still have a lot to offer to the game many times form teams and work in a management position for the team and remain very relevant without actually having to play in the casino. Much like in the beginning with your relationship with Mike Aponte. At this point in your blackjack career, although you are not really burnt out as far as casino play, have you ever considered putting a team together in this manner, with yourself as more manager than active player?

A lot of those great players who got burned out were over-exposed early on. The MIT teams, for example, churned players with little regard for their longevity. Whereas, what we developed could still allow me to play today. Managing a team could be fun if it were the right group of players, because I like to coach, but as long as I could still play, I’d choose that over managing. But nowadays, my focus is on my wealth management practice.

Did being a world class blackjack player have any impact either positively, or negatively, on your regular professional life in the financial field? It’s been said there is a correlation between the two. If so could you explain?

There’s not only a correlation, they’re the same. It’s all about sound investing. Getting your money in when you have the best of it, and protecting it when you don’t. And so much of it is about risk management. I think blackjack has toughened me up for volatile markets because I can emotionally deal with the swings better than if I never played blackjack. If more investors approached things with a mindset of getting to the long-term, like so many good advantage players do, they’d have a lot more success. And I try to convey that message on a daily basis. On the flip side, it was easy to understand concepts like standard deviation, which was already a concept I used every day as an advisor.

You are now married, and you and your wife fairly recently have brought a beautiful baby into this world, congratulations. Do you think this whole experience you write about in your book would have been possible if your first reading of Busting Vegas was today, and your interest in beating the house started now instead of close to a decade ago?

Thanks, yes, my family is a blessing to me. One phrase that my wife and I use in our relationship is the concept of “let me be me.” She’s always supported who am and who I want to be. And I think I do the same for her. So if I had the passion to embrace the game today, I think I could devote time to that if I wanted. But I was in a different place in my life back then and blackjack was more of a saving grace for me. I needed it to lift me up and give me something to get passionate about. It sounds funny saying that a card game gave me purpose, but on some level, it did. Today, I’m in a much better place, thanks to my wife, my son, and the game of blackjack.

I really appreciate your time answering a few questions Nathaniel. As always you’re a real stand up guy. Let’s not let it be years before we talk again. I really don’t want the next time we get together be after I find out your sequel to The Blackjack Life has hit the stands! Hmmm….is that a possibility? Did you leave out a few nuggets for another gripping look into your Blackjack Life, or perhaps maybe a few new adventures are in the works as we speak? Thanks again Nathaniel for your time here, as well as giving us a great book.

Thanks, my friend. I really appreciate the time. Your site is a great resource and I really enjoy reading interviews like this. Keep up the good work!

If you are looking to improve your blackjack skills we here at ThePOGG.com would highly recommend getting in contact with Nathaniel at BlackjackScience.com. Having played with Nathaniel in the past our own blackjack expert Aramon would be more than happy to provide any additional information/references he can as required.

To buy a copy of ‘The Blackjack Life’ click here.

I have been hired to play a game that has been deemed beatable by others who scouted the game. They call me with what they believe to be the details of the game and we discuss if it’s a game we can get the advantage on. This is really a simple premise, but usually a flawed way of going about it. Many games theoretically can be beat. If the math used to figure the game out lands the advantage on your side, well then, if played in a vacuum, it’s a beatable game. Well, we know these games are not played in a vacuum, and there are variables that should be taken into account along with game rules and procedure before planning an attack strategy. I’ll get more into that later. It’s been my experience over the years, that if I am not doing my own scouting then a lot of the more practical nuances of the game get left out. It makes the job tougher, but like I said, jobs have been hard to come by lately and I figure they hired me because they thought I can get the job done. They are right to believe that.

I am skilled at what is commonly referred to as advantage play when it comes to blackjack. There are many ways to gain the advantage playing blackjack. Counting cards is usually the first step. It’s a necessary step for sure, but not one that pays well in this day and age of blackjack. There is a time and place for it, and for the hobbyist it’s what I recommend most, but when you’re playing for your supper, you better have a few other tricks up your sleeve. This is where I excel. I can track cards that have been previously played, through a shuffle, and then have a significant amount of information about the cards about to be played knowing when I should bet big, or lay off. It’s not an easy skill to acquire, but once mastered, makes you a very dangerous opponent to the casino, and highly undetectable. Let me reiterate, it’s not an easy skill to acquire, almost all who try it are bad at it. Being bad at what I describe as shuffle tracking makes you a casino’s best friend. It’s one thing to play blackjack for fun with a disadvantage, almost all do it, that’s the price of entertainment. It’s a totally different animal playing with a disadvantage when you THINK you have the advantage but are wrong. Betting up when you are wrong like that will kill bankroll, bankrupt a player and can destroy a person. Don’t half ass this, a casino has no mercy for fools, you are their largest commodity.

Anyway, I am what many in the business would describe as a blackjack expert and a shuffle tracker. I have never invented any new ways to gain an advantage over the game. I have never been a mathematical genius that has discovered new ways in figuring odds and edges to games and deemed them beatable. I am in no way innovative when it comes this game, but I have learned to take what seems impossible and make it work incredibly well based on what has been discovered and usually unsuccessfully applied by others players. Nothing is ever a given when playing blackjack, there is no-one who always wins, but I always like my chances I step onto a casino floor. Otherwise…..I never would.

So I finally get to my playing destination and I relax in my hotel room and wait for my contact instructions. Really all I need is my playing stake, or trip bankroll as its commonly called. I have all the casino info they had to give and I’m ready to play. 30 minutes after I check in my hotel I get the call to meet my contact in another hotel. I get there in 15 minutes. He hands me my bankroll and a cellphone. I am to use this cell phone every evening to report on each days sessions to a number already programmed into the phone. I am to use the phone for nothing else. No problem here. I leave, go back to my hotel secure the bankroll in my room safe and go to check out the casino for myself. Here is where my job officially starts.

The above video is a demonstration of the shuffle tracking techniques Aramon discusses in this article.

I walk into the casino and am immediately taken back by how small it is. This was not mentioned in the scouting report. Upon examining the only 5 bj tables open I noticed the limits on the table alarming low. How the hell am I supposed to beat this game for any real money with $200 max! I call my assigned number right away to inform them their scouting was for shit and I can’t operate at any real stakes in this low limit joint. The response I got wasn’t good. It was along the lines of “you need this more than we do so f’ng make it work! You’re supposed to be the professional, so act it and make some f’ng money!” Well needless to say I was besides myself in anger. Partly due to the fact that they would be so ignorant and disrespectful in dealing with me, but also because they were dead right….I needed this in a bad way and they knew it. So I swallowed my pride and went to work. First off I looked at the shuffle to see if it’s as easy to beat as told to me…..and damn it was! Easiest 1 pass I have seen in a long time. Okay, 1 check in the good direction. Next I looked to see what the pit personnel were like. They were used to seeing low rollers and I’m about to stand this place on its ear, how are they going to react? Well another check on the good side. The workers here all had a laid back carefree attitude I was sure I could manipulate in my direction. Now, what are the other patrons like? I don’t care how they play per say, I want to see their attitudes so I can see best how to either get them out of the way, or put them in my way for cover. It seems to be another homerun here as these people don’t seem to be real serious players as this casino is in a real scenic vacation spot and gambling is not what they are here for. A good crowd because they won’t fight me for a table. Alright, time to go back to my room, eat, take a nap, and come back and turn this chickenshit situation into chicken salad.

Four hours later I’m coming through the casino doors again, this time with a bankroll and a playing persona in place. I step up to a pit boss that has 2 empty tables not open in the pit and ask her in an ever so friendly manner, “excuse me darlin’ I need to play some blackjack but I need a little more than I see here, would you be kind enough to open one of these tables for me so I can get rid of some of this loot a little faster. ” As I say this I have a good wad of cash in my hand and a big silly grin on my face. She looks at me for a second and says “sure why not, but don’t be so negative hun, we just had a guy walk out of here today with over $1000!” I am bursting inside, this is just too good to be true. I let out a laugh for her and sit at a table as a dealer comes over for me. I make conversation with the pit boss and the dealer making up a vacation story, but also setting up the fact I love to gamble and talk about places like Vegas and other big gambling venues. Now they know before we even start they have this super friendly guy playing here that likes to play for as much money as he can. It’s set up, now I just have to keep them from thinking anything different as the play begins. They set my table limits at $25 min $300 max. Its gonna keep most of the others away from my table as they are mostly playing $3 min tables, but I’m hoping to bump up the max as I go. We’ll see, for now it’s a little better than before.

The dealer is finished preparing the shoe and begins to deal to me. I start counting and at the moment am betting the table min. I actually play a slight positive progression through the first shoe and don’t bet with the count. I don’t want any trouble for later on when the fireworks start, so I appear as the typical gambler. With the first shoe dealt out I find myself down slightly but all the groundwork is laid. I’ve got my persona that they seem to love, I’ve got the table to myself, and most importantly, I’ve got these cards all counted and accounted for and am ready to start laying into this casino for all I got. Next shoe I cut what I believe to be the best cards in the shoe right to the top. Let’s roll. As the shoe plays out I’m betting with all the knowledge I have of the cards I tracked and I’m dead on. Only problem I still take a hit on this shoe too, but this time much bigger than the first shoe. Guess what, that’s great! I am fully aware that I can lose at this game at anytime, so that never bothers me. But the casino is absolutely unaware that I play a dangerous game against them, so I hold the upper hand. The big loss prompts the pitboss to advise me maybe I should lower my bets to weather the storm. Au contraire, please nice pit boss lady, can you up the table max so I can get this money back? I plead and come off as a hopeless yet delightful sucker. I am only going to be here for a short stay ma’am, its either go big or go broke sweetheart is the message I convey. So guess what, they bump me up to $500….to help me out. Yeah right. The casino thinks they got a live one here, and they do, just not in the way they think. Well it plays out like this, in 1 hour I got all my lost money back plus about 5 units. In the next 3 hours I beat them for over 400% of my original buy in. I cleaned out the dealers racks twice. The great thing about it, they loved me. The pit and dealers were cheering me on. People gathered around to see me play what they thought was big money and cheered me on to whip the casino. When I quit that session I knew a few thing for sure. This was one of the easiest shuffles to beat, I had free reign over the pit personnel so for the next couple of days I could do what I wanted in the way of manipulating my own table and betting limits, and the casino knew they had a lucky gambler that like to bet bigger than the rest of the patrons. That was good for them, because they knew I’d be back to give it all back to them, but in the meantime all the other suckers, as the casino sees them, got to see someone win. That’s good for bringing in business. Little did they know, I wasn’t anything what they bargained for.

That night I called in my results to a very pleased backer, had a drink and went to bed. I would only hit the casino in the evening to try to play on those I set my whole act up with, and to not over do something in a place so small. Besides this place as I said before was in a beautiful vacation spot and there was actually no casino action during the day. So the next 2 days were spent hanging out, working out, and just fine tuning myself for this fine game. In the evenings after dinner, it would just be a repeat of the night before in the casino. Upon me leaving the table the last night I was there, the pit bosses I had played with the last 3 nights all hugged me congratulated me and wished me well and hoped I would be back soon. Oh how I wish so too.

The morning before I left I met with my contact and handed over their money. I had made them triple the total money they gave me to play with. It was an extraordinary feat given the conditions in which I had to play in. I couldn’t help but think what a huge hit this could’ve been had they actually had some decent higher limits at this place. But then again if they had been higher, I’m sure the game wouldn’t be so vulnerable, that’s usually how it goes. Either way, a great shuffle and a friendly clueless staff equal profit. Big or small that’s the name of the game. As for me, I got compensated for my play at a daily flat rate. It’s not how I like to do it usually, but its guaranteed money for me win or lose. Had I worked off a percentage of what I won I would have been compensated far greater, but the situation a player is in dictates what one chooses most times. Currently I just can’t turn down guaranteed money, but there’s always next time. Which isn’t too far off, my phone rang before I got home from the airport. Looks like another possible job….but this time……You better talk to me with some f’ng respect – I believe I earned it.

A recap of Sunday’s result and where we stand to date:

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Game as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our pick this week the San Francisco 49ers would have to beat the Baltimore Ravens by more than 4 points for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offers an even money wager with the 49ers handicapped by 4 point or less.

San Francicsco 49ers -4 over Baltimore Ravens : Bet 4 units

Result :

Breaking down today’s big game has really been quite a process. As in any Super Bowl game there are so many different levels of storylines and angles that come up in the 2 weeks of pre game hype. It’s quite a task to sort through the overload of information and pick out what is really relevant to the game. It starts with the team’s head coaches being brothers. I think it’s a great story having brothers leading their respective teams against each other in the absolute biggest game in their lives, but does it have an impact on the game itself? I don’t think it does….too much. I think Jim Harbaugh, the head coach of the 49ers may have a slight edge over his brother John, head coach of the Ravens, and that for me would add a slight value in the 49er direction. To try and break this down as simple as I could I had to look big picture and whittle it down. Meaning, it is the consensus that on paper the 49ers seem to be a better team, but the Ravens have huge momentum and are considered a “hot” team now, a team of destiny. While I believe that the Ravens are hot right now, I cannot measure terms like destiny for betting and handicapping purposes so I need to see what is pushing this momentum instead of just trusting them to beat a seemingly better team because it’s meant to be. The first thing to look at is quarterback. Ravens passer Joe Flacco while having a rollercoaster like output all season, is on fire and looks to be peaking at the right time. He has thrown 8 touchdowns with 0 interceptions this post season and has performed well under pressure. He has consistently made the big throws to drive his team to wins as evidenced in that double overtime win against Denver. However, as good as Flacco has been his counterpart, 49er quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been just as good, maybe even a tick better. Kaepernick has shown even though he has only started 9 games, that he not only has incredible legs and can run all over any team as evidenced by his record setting rushing yards of 181 against the Packers, but he also has great poise in the pocket as well as a an accurate rocket for an arm as he led the Niners comeback win against number 1 seed Atlanta last week with his passing. In this game I give the quarterback edge to San Francisco, albeit slightly, because of 2 things. Kaepernick should be able to exploit a Raven defense that has not seen this Pistol style offense the 49ers run, and really they have no way to emulate this in their practice against it. Secondly, while it’s tough to go against what Flacco has done this post season, his success relies on the deep ball and the 49ers defense just does not give it up deep. They have only given up 3 touchdown passes on balls thrown more than 21 yards in the air, essentially taking away the strongest part of the Raven offense. The edge in rushing I would say goes to the 49ers as well. While top Ravens running back Ray Rice is very good, 49ers running back Frank Gore is just as potent and with the added running threat of Kaepernick, I expect San Francisco out gains Baltimore on the ground by quite a large margin. Especially given the 49er defense does not give up much on the ground. They average only giving up 1.2 yards per rush after contact. What that means is, when they hit you, you stop, they are excellent tacklers. The past 2 weeks leading up to the Superbowl the big story leading up to the game has been about Baltimore’s future hall of famer and 17 year veteran linebacker Ray Lewis retiring after this season. The unlikely run the Ravens had to the Superbowl has been given credit by many due to the overwhelming drive and emotion Baltimore has gotten for and from their departing leader. They are this team of “destiny” winning the biggest game for Lewis so he can go out on top where he belongs. That sounds nice, and may actually have a small measurable part in lesser games, but not this one. Every player on that field today on both teams will be maxed out emotionally and there is no way that amped emotion will be part of success more for one player than the next. It could have negative effects if emotions get the better of you, but I have seen no evidence of that on any of these teams so I find this whole premise of winning due to destiny pretty much a non factor. The bottomline to me is the 49ers are a better team that match up pretty good with a Ravens team that until today matched up well with their playoff competition. That’s what has made the Ravens a hot team, but I believe the momentum train ends for Baltimore today with the San Francisco 49ers becoming the Super Bowl champs. I don’t usually predict scores, but for the Super Bowl I will go out on the limb and say 49ers win it 27-17.

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A recap of Sunday’s result and where we stand to date:

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the San Francisco 49ers would have to beat the Atlanta Falcons by more than 4 points for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offers an even money wager with the 49ers handicapped by 4 point or less.

San Francicsco 49ers -4 over Atlanta Falcons : Bet 7 units

Result : San Francicsco 49ers 28 – 24 Atlanta Falcons

I apologize to all the Atlanta fans that don’t think their number 1 seeded Falcons get the respect they deserve, but they don’t stand much of a chance to get past the 49ers this week to get to the Super Bowl. It’s not that the Falcons are not good or worthy of being in the championship game, its just that they don’t match up well with a 49ers team that is banging all cylinders right now. Last week the 49ers welcomed Green Bay into town by beating the hell out of the all time highest ranked quarterback in post season play, Aaron Rodgers, and running roughshod all over them. Now I don’t expect San Francisco’s quarterback Colin Kaepernick to run for over 180 yards again like he did last week against a better Falcon defense, but he won’t have to. It has been shown this year that Atlanta struggles mightily with mobile quarterbacks as evidenced last week trying to defend Russell Wilson, as well as during the season with 2 losses against the Carolina Panthers and Cam Newton. The ankle injury to Atlanta’s defensive end John Abraham seems to really effect how well this Falcon defense can contain a speedy quarterback and pass rush as well. Another gaping mismatch comes in the form of Atlanta’s slow defensive secondary trying to match up with 49ers wide receivers Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss, and tight end Vernon Davis. With so much attention being given to Kaepernick’s legs, his arm is just as lethal. With the threat of him running along with running back Frank Gore softening up the defense, look for some big pass plays down field that will really open up this game. Of course Atlanta has great weapons too with quarterback Matt Ryan having had a great season along with his wide outs Roddy White and Julio Jones each amassing over 1,000 yards receiving this year. And of course there is future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez at tight end still playing at such a high level. But the problem is this 49er pass rush will be murder for Atlanta’s offensive line. I don’t expect Matt Ryan to have any time to really establish any passing threat against this defense and I believe the pressure will cause costly game changing turnovers. Atlanta’s run game has been hot and cold this season, with it being both in last weeks game. In today’s game it will have to be perfect to try and keep the game close and the defense honest, and I don’t think it’s possible. Basically I see the 49ers taking this game without too much problem because I see them keeping Atlanta’s dangerous offense off the field and controlling the tempo of the game. Falcons just flat out struggle in the heat that is the playoffs. Even with their win last week Atlanta is still 0-5 in their last 5 playoff games against the spread. To add to this, the 49ers are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 road games against teams with winning records. I believe the 49ers roll big time on their way to the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots -8 over Baltimore Ravens : Bet 4 units

Result : New England Patriots 13 – 28 Baltimore Ravens

This game is strange. The Patriots are a big favorite but to actually pick them is the underdog move. There has been so much that’s been said about these teams past meetings and how they are usually so close that everyone thinks this line is way off. All you need is to look at this very game last year as they played each other to a 23-20 Patriot win that could have very easily gone to the Ravens if they had not missed an easy 32 yard field goal or dropped an easy pass in the end zone for a touchdown. These are just a sample of what has been said all week. Not to mention the Ravens have already beat the Patriots in week 3 this year in a very close game 31-30. To be honest I thought the same about this game all week, but as I dug deeper I started to question it, and it wasn’t until yesterday that I realized, Patriots are going to win this game comfortably. This is not the popular choice this week as the Ravens have been called a team of destiny based on how they have played of late and that this run will be the last for their superstar future hall of famer Ray Lewis. Well I think that’s a wonderful story too, but I can’t buy into that as a reason why this Raven defense will stop the number 1 offense in the NFL. The Patriots produced their 6th 40+ point game of the season last week against a team that is pretty much a carbon copy of the Ravens. Texans although not playing their best, had a good defense, very good running game, a very good quarterback, and an excellent receiver. Patriots pasted them 41-28 and it was even only that close due to late meaningless scores. That is exactly what the Ravens are bringing in to New England today, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Patriots were struggling in the beginning of the season when these 2 teams first met, since then they have dominated the league. They have moved to not just a no huddle offense, but an ultra quick offense. The Ravens defense, while stout is aging and has played on adrenaline for the last 2 weeks not to mention extra quarters last week. Look for them to be gassed by the 3rd quarter and give up big plays. Last week also saw the emergence of Patriots Shane Vereen as another all purpose offensive threat with explosive running ability and great hands catching passes out of the backfield. This man is something Baltimore has yet to face. Another difference in this Patriot team that Baltimore has not yet seen is the defensive back field with cornerback Aqib Talib. He was brought in November and is a shut down corner that will not let Raven’s quarterback Joe Flacco throw those long very defensible bombs down field that saved the Ravens season last week. Patriots offense is all that gets talked about for good reason, its number 1, but a very important part of New England’s success comes in their defensive ability to take the ball away. They led the league in turnover margin with 20 interceptions and a league high 28 forced fumbles. I see the Ravens being pressured to try and keep pace with the Patriots quick strike high powered offense and committing costly turnovers that assure this Patriot win and cover.

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