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Winning big first time round

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xalksx
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Winning big first time round

Postby xalksx » Fri Apr 25, 2014 6:18 pm

Hvae a question about bingo and ive seen a few of the sites ..

So one night me and the girl were sitting having a few drinks i was playing poker online and she said can i come over to see what its all about so i then set up the lappy to the tv so we could watch it that way (it was fun for me doesnt sound like the romantic night in i no) however i said to her would u like a game of bingo and she said yea ..So i went over to the bingo section which was pretty big i opened the first room i seen and then clicked to by max tickets i then looked at the price money and went wtf £1000 for the house and £800 for two lines etc so at that time i had no clue how it worked i no how to play bingo but i didnt no about "link ups" so it had been that we were in a link with 1500 other users now this was the first time we had ever played it and were waiting on 6 numbers for the house with 43 numbers drawn so we had "no chance" in my eyes boom the 6 numbers hit on the trot no breaks inbiween numbers just boom boom boom then house everyone was going well done etc i didnt understand what had happened so refreshed ballance there it was £1000 win ..My theory is that they tend to give new players big wins to get a good rep and i no people will go thats just a theory but in my eyes over the years of joining sites ive always got a decent win first time of play does anyone else ever get this or feel this way about things ..Or in the past have they thought this yea now everything is checked and double checked but i still think at points they have swung it in favour of new players to get a big ish win to draw them back thats just my thought tho and im sure everyone will think different
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thePOGG
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Postby thePOGG » Sat Apr 26, 2014 9:59 am

Hey xalksx,

On this one I don't agree with you.

What you're suggesting here would unquestionably be flat out cheating. If a casino could in any way influence the outcome of a supposedly random game, they're cheating. So arranging it so that a new player wins to encourage them to come back, the casino have cheated. And while to the winning player the casino cheating in their favour doesn't seem like a bad thing, every other player playing the game was disadvantaged - they couldn't, or were substantially less likely to, win.

More than that, this would create an easily exploitable weakness. The saavy player would simply go from casino to casino playing for a while to see if the casino 'give out a win to encourage them' then moving on, never staying with any one casino long. Even if this only happened at 1 in 5 casino and the player was a terrible player otherwise, the player should easily make enough from those infrequent new player wins to more than cover the losses at the other casinos.

The human brain is an amazing thing - it's specifically evolved to look for patterns. The problem is that it's so determined to do this that it will often see patterns where there are none. One of two things is likely in your experience;

1) You've simply got lucky the times you've played just after signing up.

2) You're brain's played a trick on you.

I don't intend the second point as any type of sleight - this happens to everyone. The times you see a result that confirms a previous observation become more memorable than the times that the result contradicts it. Essentially this is where the entire concept of luck comes from - when I wear my green jumper out to the casino I win more at blackjack. The times I wear the green jumper and win validate my belief that the jumper is somehow lucky and is somehow influencing random chance in my favour. The times that I wear it out and don't do so well, I'll find other factors to account for this failure. Only the results that validate my belief that the jumper is lucky will be taken into consideration.

Likewise, it seems probable that those times you've played and won early have been far more memorable to you than the times where you played and lost, leading to the feeling that you win more frequently if you're a new player.
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xalksx
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Postby xalksx » Sat Apr 26, 2014 11:07 am

Lol i was ready to go grrrrr but then i read your explanation of it which then took me back to a certain time and it was when i had a lucky £100 i had this £100 pound note it was old and ripped etc as i had it for that long this was because in my mind everytime i went to the bookies i won when i had it ..

Now id see me having a bet with it and saying to the bookie keep it in your till for me please and sometimes they would have it overnight id get it back the next day while betting so yea i see where the brains tricking me
It was just the odds of that thing happening with the bingo how could that happen what would the odds be on me out of the blue asking my partner if she fancied playing bingo it was bang on a time when this link was ready to go off and we hit the link out of 1500 people or whatever it was but i sat and thought how i could justify what i had said i then thought on the sites ive joined and not won and i cant remember any this is because there was nowt to remember because i had lost..Now look at redbet that will stick with me for a long time but i dont class that as one of they situations that site stuck in my head because of the slot i played after seeing a screenshot on another site of someone winning big

So yea your justification on how its more a trick on my mind is fair but i will be back with one at some point that will hopefully pickle u lmao jokes
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thePOGG
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Postby thePOGG » Sat Apr 26, 2014 5:31 pm

Hey xalksx,

I'd say again - it happens to everyone. Why when placing a big bet at blackjack do I cross my fingers? Seriously, do I really think that the act of putting my middle finger round my index finger will change the order of the cards? Despite know that it's non-sense, I still catch myself do it.

I come from a mathematical background and while my logical brain is in play simply don't believe in luck. I know for a lot of players the different systems and beliefs they have on how to win are half the fun of gambling. The last thing I want to do is take the fun out of anyone's pass time, but sometimes the mathematical side of me just can't help itself lol.
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xalksx
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Postby xalksx » Sat Apr 26, 2014 6:52 pm

Lol ThePOGG yea its the same when something is due ..Now i dont no about you when you play roulette do u have fav numbers i like the 5/23/8/11/30 section because when spun when it lands there i no im getting something but my fav number "0" is always due has to come out because its not been out for that long its just mad how some of us think

I stopped to talk to a mate in the street he said would u ffin believe this i spun 14 spins with £100 on black on the roulette and it never spat out any blacks all reds thats well rigged he tells me first of i partly agree as its a fobt but even if it was live it doesnt make any difference it could spin 4x numbers in the trot all the same its just the way the wheels spun but this is one i point out to people who find it quite dumb founding i say right so youve spun 14 or so spins at £100 so your down £1400 i said you do no that they machines only pay 4/1 when betting maximum bet he disagreed i said well £100 bet and the max you win is £500 the odds are 4/1 of course you can go on a roll

Back to the theory's etc when i said i thought it was pretty weird that i get wins when i join casinos and you had one of the most basic of answers which was true you always remember wins and the odd loss i do have allot of things id tell my friends in general about what i think about betting sites but that's negative and its one of them story's you would talk about in the boozer no on a site like this where your providing a great platform for us gamblers to have more of a chance while betting :)
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thePOGG
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Postby thePOGG » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:43 am

Yeah the 'Due' theory is a common misconception amongst gamblers, even those that do understand the maths.

James Grosejean wrote an excellent article on this recently basically pointing out where the intuitive error in the this thinking is (http://beyondnumbers.lvablog.com/2013/12/17/the-denominator-where-due-happens/)

People think that when Red comes out 8 times in a row that Black must be 'due' as they know that red and black are meant to come out an even number of time. What they don't understand is that Black is not any more likely to come out, all that will happen is that the swing will get diminished in far bigger numbers.

Example;

Using a fair coin I see 16 heads out of 20 tosses that means heads came out 80% of the time where it was only expected 50%, surely tails is going to have to come out more regularly in the future to balance this out if the coin's really fair? Nope.

Say I toss the coin another 9980 times and it behaves normally giving 4990 heads and 4990 tails, let's take a look at the total sample now - out of 10000 tosses 5006 where heads or 50.06%, a far cry from the 80% heads we saw in the first 20 tosses. Even with the unusual streak at the start, extra tails aren't required to bring us back to what we expect, just a large number of trials. The longer the coin behaves normally for the less impact short term streaks have on the overall sample.

As to your friend - it's approximately (assuming a double zero wheel) a 1 in 35k chance of seeing 14 of the same colour (red/black) in a row. Those odds sound high but to put it in perspective playing Jacks or Better Video Poker with the proper strategy the chances of receiving a Royal Flush are somewhere around 1 in 40k, yet that happens all the time and people don't see it as remarkable in the same way as 14 of the same colour at roulette.
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