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Feb 03

Aramon’s 2013 NFL Super Bowl Pick

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Well its finally here….Super Bowl Sunday! It really is a bittersweet day as its the game we wait for all year, the game we plan everything around like a holiday, the game that initiates more food and beverage consumption than any other day of the year, its a party! But it also marks the end of another NFL season. After today the season shuts down and no more meaningful games until September. But enough of that, its a great day, capping off our winning season. Its been a crazy ride this year with so many ups and downs and twist and turns, but through it all we’ve managed a healthy profit and I hope many have reaped the benefits of it. It doesn’t stop just yet however, we still have one more pick to go today on this little game they call the Super Bowl. It took all of the 2 weeks between the last game and today’s game to sort through all the Super Bowl hooplah to find out what is an actual value to wager on, but I think we did it. So place your bets and enjoy the game. We had a good season, lets end it with a good game and great day!

A recap of Sunday’s result and where we stand to date:

Sundays’s results : -4.0 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.4 units
Total to date : +30.5 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Game as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our pick this week the San Francisco 49ers would have to beat the Baltimore Ravens by more than 4 points for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offers an even money wager with the 49ers handicapped by 4 point or less.

San Francicsco 49ers -4 over Baltimore Ravens : Bet 4 units

Result :

Breaking down today’s big game has really been quite a process. As in any Super Bowl game there are so many different levels of storylines and angles that come up in the 2 weeks of pre game hype. It’s quite a task to sort through the overload of information and pick out what is really relevant to the game. It starts with the team’s head coaches being brothers. I think it’s a great story having brothers leading their respective teams against each other in the absolute biggest game in their lives, but does it have an impact on the game itself? I don’t think it does….too much. I think Jim Harbaugh, the head coach of the 49ers may have a slight edge over his brother John, head coach of the Ravens, and that for me would add a slight value in the 49er direction. To try and break this down as simple as I could I had to look big picture and whittle it down. Meaning, it is the consensus that on paper the 49ers seem to be a better team, but the Ravens have huge momentum and are considered a “hot” team now, a team of destiny. While I believe that the Ravens are hot right now, I cannot measure terms like destiny for betting and handicapping purposes so I need to see what is pushing this momentum instead of just trusting them to beat a seemingly better team because it’s meant to be. The first thing to look at is quarterback. Ravens passer Joe Flacco while having a rollercoaster like output all season, is on fire and looks to be peaking at the right time. He has thrown 8 touchdowns with 0 interceptions this post season and has performed well under pressure. He has consistently made the big throws to drive his team to wins as evidenced in that double overtime win against Denver. However, as good as Flacco has been his counterpart, 49er quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been just as good, maybe even a tick better. Kaepernick has shown even though he has only started 9 games, that he not only has incredible legs and can run all over any team as evidenced by his record setting rushing yards of 181 against the Packers, but he also has great poise in the pocket as well as a an accurate rocket for an arm as he led the Niners comeback win against number 1 seed Atlanta last week with his passing. In this game I give the quarterback edge to San Francisco, albeit slightly, because of 2 things. Kaepernick should be able to exploit a Raven defense that has not seen this Pistol style offense the 49ers run, and really they have no way to emulate this in their practice against it. Secondly, while it’s tough to go against what Flacco has done this post season, his success relies on the deep ball and the 49ers defense just does not give it up deep. They have only given up 3 touchdown passes on balls thrown more than 21 yards in the air, essentially taking away the strongest part of the Raven offense. The edge in rushing I would say goes to the 49ers as well. While top Ravens running back Ray Rice is very good, 49ers running back Frank Gore is just as potent and with the added running threat of Kaepernick, I expect San Francisco out gains Baltimore on the ground by quite a large margin. Especially given the 49er defense does not give up much on the ground. They average only giving up 1.2 yards per rush after contact. What that means is, when they hit you, you stop, they are excellent tacklers. The past 2 weeks leading up to the Superbowl the big story leading up to the game has been about Baltimore’s future hall of famer and 17 year veteran linebacker Ray Lewis retiring after this season. The unlikely run the Ravens had to the Superbowl has been given credit by many due to the overwhelming drive and emotion Baltimore has gotten for and from their departing leader. They are this team of “destiny” winning the biggest game for Lewis so he can go out on top where he belongs. That sounds nice, and may actually have a small measurable part in lesser games, but not this one. Every player on that field today on both teams will be maxed out emotionally and there is no way that amped emotion will be part of success more for one player than the next. It could have negative effects if emotions get the better of you, but I have seen no evidence of that on any of these teams so I find this whole premise of winning due to destiny pretty much a non factor. The bottomline to me is the 49ers are a better team that match up pretty good with a Ravens team that until today matched up well with their playoff competition. That’s what has made the Ravens a hot team, but I believe the momentum train ends for Baltimore today with the San Francisco 49ers becoming the Super Bowl champs. I don’t usually predict scores, but for the Super Bowl I will go out on the limb and say 49ers win it 27-17.

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