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Aramon’s 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 1 (Monday)

Posted by THEPOGG on Sep 09, 2013

It has been a rocky start to the season but we are just getting started, and the late game yesterday got us our first win of the week. So with Monday night football upon us lets keep the momentum rolling with what I believe to be one of the best plays of the week. There are two games on this first week of the season Monday night. I believe one game is going to be an exciting closely played contest, and the other an old fashioned beat down. Our pick tonight should let you know which one is which. Enjoy!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here’s how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our pick tonight the Houston Texans would have to beat the San Diego Chargers by 3.5 points or more (i.e. 4 points as you can’t get half points.) for us to win this wager.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams.

Sunday’s results : -3.0 units
10% house vig on losses : -3.5 units
Total to date : -5.7 units




Houston Texans -3.5 over San Diego Chargers : Bet 3 units

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Houston Texans -4.5 over San Diego Chargers : Bet 2 units

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*To be noted, the wager on this game weighted as a 3 unit bet at Houston -3.5. If your sportsbook offers a line at -4 to -4.5 that will decrease the units wagered to 2. Any sports book offering a line at -5 or higher do not bet.

Result : Houston Texans 31 : 28 San Diego Chargers

I really like this game. The Texans I believe are one of the very good teams getting overlooked this year. A lot may be due to some key players coming back from injury, but they still have such a complete package on offense and defense it’s hard to look past the potential. It starts with Houston getting inside linebacker Brian Cushing back. The Houston defense was one of the best in the league last year until he went down and missed more than half the season. He’s back this year fully recovered, and with defensive player of the year J.J. Watt rushing the passer, look for Charger quarterback Phillip Rivers to feel the pressure all night long. Chargers gave up 49 sacks last year, and although they tried to address that this offseason, it had yet to show any dividends through the preseason. Also with Texans adding perennial All Pro Ed Reed to their defensive backfield, this Houston defense is even more potent than last year. The relentless pressure and ball hawking ability should lead to possible turnovers which will allow the powerful Houston offense to control the game. With a crushing running game with the two headed monster of Arian Foster, and Ben Tate at running back, look for Houston to control the ball, the clock, and the score. Even with the Chargers being home that has offered them little advantage going just 2-6 against the spread on their own field last season. Under head coach Gary Kubiak the Texans have been road warriors going 7-1 against the spread on the road. I believe the Chargers 3-1 showing in the preseason may have skewed the perception on this game. Although I do believe San Diego is improved a bit over last year, so have the Texans with getting some key players back. This game has the potential to get ugly if Rivers gets rattled, but the problem is, even if he doesn’t, the Chargers still won’t have enough to get this one.

1 Response

Sep 09, 2013

Our bet for tonight's game;

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