MENU

Get up to 19

exclusive bonuses

What's so special about

our bonus reviews?


  • only recommended casinos
  • full wagering requirements
  • terms & conditions analysis
  • bonus value calculation
We respect your privacy and won't share your email address.
[X] Close this form and return to site

Aramon’s 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 1 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG on Sep 08, 2013

Week 1 kicked off with quite a bang with Peyton Manning tossing a record tying 7 touchdowns in 1 game! Of course that amazing performance cost us our wager as we ended up on the short side of Peyton’s stellar night. No problem at all, its only the first game. Actually that game was going exactly as expected with Baltimore leading 17 to 14 at the half and looking dominant. But after that the thin mile high air seemed to take a toll on the Ravens, and it was just Manning’s night. Well we put that game behind us and move on to some new opportunities today, and I sure like what we’ve got. Today’s games gives us our first totals bets of the season, and a real strong play on the Bucs. So let’s sit back and enjoy the Sunday games and get ourselves in the black!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here’s how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would have to beat the New York Jets by 3.5 points or more (i.e. 4 points as you can’t get half points.) for us to win this wager.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams.

Thursday’s results : -2.0 units
10% house vig on losses : -2.2 units
Total to date : -2.2 units

Book

Line

Sign-up

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 over New York Jets : Bet 3 units

Click Here

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 over New York Jets : Bet 4 units

Click Here

*To be noted, the wager on this game weighted as a 3 unit bet at Tampa Bay -3.5. If your sportsbook offers a line at -3 that will increase the units wagered to 4. Although highly doubtful, if any books offer a line with Tampa Bay at -2.5 or lower, increase wager to 5 units.

Result : Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 : 18 New York Jets

This game if being played in about 4 weeks probably would have been a max bet. I can’t pull the trigger yet due to how early in the season it is and the teams aren’t fully established as to what they are yet, but it is very clear to me that these are 2 teams going in totally opposite directions. The Jets will be starting their rookie quarterback Geno Smith today, not because he won the starting job from Mark Sanchez by playing better, but because Sanchez got hurt. In Smith’s 3 quarters against the Giants in game 3 of the preseason he threw 3 interceptions and showed so little pocket presence he even stepped out of the end zone by accident getting a safety called on him. Now Geno Smith may end up being a viable quarterback in the league down the road, he does have potential, but he’s not ready yet and he is being tossed in the fire prematurely. The Jets have little to no offensive weapons for Smith to throw to so there will be no hiding for this young rookie quarterback. Meanwhile the Buccaneers are a talented team that get overlooked because they play in the NFC South with Atlanta and New Orleans. With young phenom running back Doug Martin who ran for over 1400 yards last season, and 2 big play receivers in Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams, Tampa Bay has a very potent offense that can score on anybody. Buc’s quarterback Josh Freeman who has been a bit inconsistent in the past looks to even out utilizing his huge potential against a team that cannot pose any real scoring threat. Tampa Bay’s defense while soft against the pass last year, has bolstered the secondary massively by acquring from the Jets the best cornerback in the league in Darrelle Revis. While Revis is coming off of major knee surgery, there is no better offense in the league for him to get healthy on then the anemic Jets led by an unproven untested rookie quarterback. The Jet defense is pretty decent and plays well for Coach Rex Ryan, but look for them to be whipped by the middle of the 3rd quarter and Tampa to step on the gas.

Book

Line

Sign-up

New England Patriots/Buffalo Bills take the over total 51 : Bet 2 units

Click Here

New England Patriots/Buffalo Bills take the over total 51 : Bet 2 units

Click Here

*This bet stands at 2 units from the game totals of 50-53. If you find a book that offers a total less than 50 than up the wager to 3 units. If your book offers it 53.5 up to 54 wager 1 unit. Anything over 54 do not bet.

Result : New England Patriots 23 : 21 Buffalo Bills

The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams, and I don’t see anyway that changes today. The average score for these games has been close to 71 points! The worry for many this year has been that the Patriots have lost a lot on offense with star tight end Rob Gronkowski out and Aaron Hernandez now gone along with wide out Wes Welker. Well the Patriots under coach Bill Belichick and perennial all pro quarterback Tom Brady are the best at retooling in what seems to be a yearly basis. With Brady leading the offense he has made a habit of turning everyone on is offense into a star, and this year look for new acquisition Danny Amendola to be the next. He looks to be able to come very close to matching the production that Wes Welker formerly provided. Also to be noted is the highly under rated running game of the Patriots that remains strongly intact from last season. The Patriot defense still remains a bit soft as they do give up lots of yards, and they average giving up 20.7 points per game. That’s not awful, but I think the Bills should easily be able to hit that mark and even surpass it with the offensive system new head coach Doug Marrone has implemented. Believe it or not the Bills have instituted the fastest no huddle offense in the league. Not only should that spell out a tough offense for the Patriots to defend, it will also give Tom Brady and his offense many more chances to score as well as Buffalo will not be holding the ball on any clock eating drives. Buffalo does have some real skill position players in running back C.J. Spiller and wide receiver Stevie Johnson, and that should really help rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel find his groove in the system. Not to mention he is a big mobile quarterback that can extend plays and gain yards on the ground, thus infiltrating the style of successful quarterbacks now trending. I look for this game to hit the mark early.

Book

Line

Sign-up

New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys take the over total 50 : Bet 2 units

Click Here

New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys take the over total 50 : Bet 2 units

Click Here

* This bet stands at a 2 unit bet at a game total of 49-51. If you find a book offering a total under 49 than up the wager to 3 units. If your book offers the total over 51.5-53 drop wager to 1 unit. Anything over 53 do not bet.

Result : New York Giants 31 : 36 Dallas Cowboys

This game as always should be a barn burner. Normally the Giants would be a good bet here but right now with them being banged up on defense, I believe they are a little vulnerable there right now at least at the start of this season. Giant star pass rusher Jason Pierre Paul is battling back problems, and with safety Stevie Brown out for the season I think the Giants will be open to a potent passing attack, and that’s exactly what they’re walking into today with Dallas. Cowboy’s have an an incredibly potent passing offense with the ultra dynamic receiver Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and a great short game in tight end Jason Witten. Cowboys are weak in the running game which pretty much forces Cowboy quarterback Tony Romo to light up the stats during the regular season. Even with a full strength Giant defense, Romo has a tendency to extend plays and find receivers by sliding out and throwing out of the pocket. The Giants of course are no slouch on offense and have all the skill needed to go blow for blow with the Dallas Cowboy offense. Giants quarterback Eli Manning has put up some gaudy passing stats in the past passing to his talented wide outs Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. The Giants offense suffered lat year without Nicks, but he’s back and appears healthy again. Add to that the potential of running back David Wilson to score anytime he touches the ball and the Giants should have a well balanced attack that should put up some points. The last 4 years of home games for Dallas against the Giants have all hit the over, I don’t expect that trend to end today. Should be an explosive game with 2 division rivals duking it out until the end.

1 Response

ThePOGG
Sep 09, 2013

Here's a shot of ThePOGG's bet line;

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.