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Sep 05

Aramon’s 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 1

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Well alright football is back! Its been a long wait but I’m back too and ready to start churning out the picks and making money even better than last year. While last season showed us making a decent profit, I believe the improvements made to the system this year gives us a chance to even better the results. Although I will still be picking the games on a weighted 1-10 unit scale with 10 being the best bet, the first couple of weeks will be of the more conservative nature as we build up some current team and player data. So even if something looks real good now, I feel the need to temper down the wagers in the beginning weeks as they don’t yet carry the full weight of possible advantage as they will once they are more able to be analyzed more completely and with current information. So with that being said lets get this party started!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here’s how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Denver Broncos would have to beat the Baltimore Ravens by 7.5 points or more (i.e. 8 points as you can’t get half points.)

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. There is none on tonight’s game

Book

Line

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Baltimore Ravens +7.5 over Denver Broncos : Bet 2 units

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Baltimore Ravens +7.5 over Denver Broncos : Bet 2 units

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Result : Baltimore Ravens 27 Denver Broncos 49

This game to me looks to be much closer than some are suggesting. Last season saw these 2 teams split their two meetings with Baltimore ending Denver’s Superbowl chances in an overtime defeat. Even in the 34-17 Raven loss earlier in the year last season was much closer than the score suggests. If not for Raven quarterback Joe Flacco throwing an interception on the 2 yard line and getting it returned 98 yards for a touchdown, that game is very close. That would have been a minimum 10 to 14 point swing. As a matter of fact, 1/3 of the Bronco touchdowns against the Ravens came to the highly unlikely scenarios of kickoff return, punt return, and that interception return. Those are scores that cannot be counted upon with any type of regularity.

This year even with losing key pieces like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, And Paul Kruger to that vaunted Baltimore defense, they are still very formidable. By acquiring from Denver no less, linebacker Elvis Dumervil, they have gotten a big time pass rusher. Add to that a healthy all pro linebacker Terrell Suggs and standout lineman Haloti Ngata, and this Raven defense should be as potent with a powerful pass rush on Peyton Manning all night. While Denver’s offense with quarterback Peyton Manning and newly acquired wide receiver Wes Welker should prove to be very potent as usual, look for the Bronco’s defense to be exploitable this week. With superstar linebacker Vonn Miller out 6 weeks due to a suspension, and cornerback Champ Bailey hobbled by an injured foot that if it doesn’t keep him out of the game will make him seriously limited, this defense will have some serious holes that Superbowl MVP Joe Flacco should be able to produce some fireworks of his own. I expect this game to be close and fairly high scoring. It may come down to whoever has the ball last wins. With 7 and the hook (1/2 point) for Baltimore, that’s a winning proposition for us.

1 Response

ThePOGG
Sep 05, 2013

As promised I'll be betting with Aramon's picks this year! I'm starting with a bankroll of £1000.

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