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Sep 16

Aramon’s 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 2 (Monday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

So this Monday night game is important for our week because it will be the deciding factor if its a positive or negative week of wagering. With yesterday bringing us a small 0.5 unit win, and Thursday’s game delivering us +2 units, we stand at a +2.5 profit for the week. That’s fine, but we’re not done. If the value is there we must go for it and that we do with tonight’s game. I definitely feel tonight’s game will do a lot in pulling us closer to putting us in the positive for this young season. A winning week is always a good week, and tonight’s pick should make this a fine week!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here’s how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our pick tonight the Cincinnati Bengals would have to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers by 6.5 points or more (i.e. 7 points as you can’t get half points.) for us to win this wager.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams.

Sunday’s results : +1.0 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.5 units
Total to date : -6.5 units

Book

Line

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Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers : Bet 3 units

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Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers : Bet 3 units

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*To be noted, the wager on this game weighted as a 3 unit bet at Cincinnati -6.5. If your sportsbook offers a line at -7 that will decrease the units wagered to 2. Any sports book offering a line at -7 or higher do not bet.

Result: Cincinnati Bengals 20 : Pittsburgh Steelers 10

In Marvin Lewis’s 11 years as head coach of the Bengals this is only the 3rd time his team has been a favorite against the Steelers. Even though the previous 2 times Pittsburgh won those games, this season seems to be the beginning of the changing of the guard in this division. The first week of the season saw both of these teams take a loss, but they were far different in what took place. Cincinnati dominated the Bears for 3 quarters only to blow an 11 point lead in the 4th quarter to a Chicago team that has shown thus far that they are pretty powerful offensively as well as on defense. Pittsburgh on the other hand looked down right dreadful on offense and only there defense playing well kept that game from being totally embarrassed by Tennessee. This looks like a tough matchup for the Steelers playing on Cincy’s home field. Bengals defense looks as if it should have the weapons to shut down the Steelers offense once again with a pass rush lead by Geno Atkins. Especially with Pittsburgh losing their starting center Pouncey to a season ending knee injury. If the Steelers only rush for anything close to the abysmal 32 yards of last week, look for the Bengals defense to start pinning their ears back and harrassing the Steelers Ben Roethlisberger all night. He was sacked 5 times last week against the Titans, and the Bengals D is a notch above that so I expect much of the same. Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton should be able to handle this decent Steelers defense as he did for most of the game with the Bears passing for over a 78% completion percentage. If he or the Bengals can control turning the ball over I will be hard pressed to believe the Steelers would be able to really be in this game. Pittsburgh’s defense is good and may hold for a while, but they should wear out as the Steelers offense mounts very little opposition.

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