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Sep 15

Aramon’s 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 2 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

With the week 1 disappointment behind us we started the 2nd week of the season with a nice win picking the Jets to upset the apple cart and cover against the Patriots. Now as we move into this Sunday’s games we find ourselves with some nice value in a few games to hopefully add to our winning ways. We look to pick the upset in what’s being dubbed the Manning Bowl, as well as pick the winner in the game of quite possibly the 2 best teams in the NFC. I like what we have going on this week, but as its still early in the season we will still remain conservative with our wagers. We do however make our largest wager this season today, and that should be the start of good things to come. So, great games today with high confidence picks, lets enjoy the day!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here’s how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Houston Texans would have to beat the Tennessee Titans by more than 9 points for us to win this wager.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams.

Thursday’s results : +2.0 units
10% house vig on losses : 0.0 units
Total to date : -7.0 units

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Houston Texans -9 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 3 units

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Houston Texan -8 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 3 units

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*To be noted, the wager on this game weighted as a 3 unit bet at Houston -9. If your sportsbook offers a line at -10 that will lower the units wagered to 2. Any line offered at -10.5 or higher do not bet .

Result: Houston Texans 30 : Tennessee Titans 24

Although both of these divisional rivals enter the game against each other with 1-0 records, these are clearly teams heading different routes this season. Last week the Titans beat A Steeler team that looks to be just a shell of itself. With no real offense to deal with the Tennessee defense looked good enough, but they will need to be great and play over their heads to handle this powerful Texan team. Houston seems to have shook off the rust they showed in the first half in their win against the Chargers. Houston Wide receiver Andre Johnson proved he’s still one of the best in the game by making clutch grabs all night and just always finding a away open for his quarterback Matt Schaub to seemingly get the ball to him at will. Match that up with always dangerous running back Arian Foster, along with the rising force that is Ben Tate, and this offense proves to be a tough match up for any defense in the NFL. And with the Texans having probably the best defensive player in the league in J.J. Watt, that makes them relevant as a defense as long as he’s on the field. The struggling Titan quarterback Jake Locker is in for a long hard day, and with his star running back Chris Johnson only able to gain 70 yards last week on 25 carries, it doesn’t look like these Tennessee Titans are equipped on either side of the ball to compete with these Houston Texans. Aside from this, looking at the history of this match up, Texans are 2-0 against the Titans last year and 3 -0 -1 in the last 4 meetings against the spread. This looks to be a fairly easy double digit win for the Texans.

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New York Giants +4 over Denver Broncos : Bet 2 units

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New York Giants +4.5 over Denver Broncos : Bet 2 units

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*To be noted, the wager on this game weighted as a 2 unit bet at Giants +4. If your sportsbook offers a line at +3 to +3.5 that will lower the units wagered to 1. Any line offered at +2.5 or lower do not bet .

Result: Denver Broncos 41 : New York Giants 23

The Broncos proved to be an offensive machine in week 1 and I would expect no defense in the NFL to be able to completely stop them. So why would I pick a Giants team that gave up 36 points in a losing effort last week in Dallas to top the almighty Denver Broncos? Well there’s more than just the score to look at from last week. The Giant’s defense was actually pretty good only giving up 331 yards on 74 plays last week. 2 of the 4 Cowboy touchdowns last week came on returns and was not against the New York defense. All the Giants need to do on defense is get just a couple of key 3rd down stops and get their offense on the field and this game gets wild and competitive. Make no mistake about it Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning is one of the best of all time with so many weapons to throw to that his offense will score some points, but do not discount little brother Eli on the Giants side to handle his business in a similar fashion. Last week the Giants had 5 fumbles on the offensive side of the ball which coach Tom Coughlin will not allow again. Even with these mishaps Eli Manning threw for 450 yards and led his team to score 31 points. Barring those turnovers, Giants win last week in a game that wouldn’t have even been close. The Broncos defensive secondary is hurt and is the weakest aspect of this team, they didn’t get exploited too much last week because the game got out of hand early, but look for the Giants to be able to go deep and do it often. It’s going to be a close game, one I feel is very winnable for little brother Eli over Peyton.

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New York Giants/Denver Broncos take the over total 55 : Bet 4 units

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New York Giants/Denver Broncos take the over total 54 : Bet 4 units

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*This bet stands at 4 units from the game totals of 54-56. If you find a book that offers a total less than 54 than up the wager to 5 units. If your book offers it 56.5 up to 58.5 wager 2 units. Anything 59 and over do not bet.

Result: Denver Broncos 41 : New York Giants 23

Well for a lot of the same reasons I took the Giants to cover the game against the Broncos I take to push the score of this game way over the total. I believe this game is going to be a barn burner that will see the Manning vs Manning show at its best. The Giants, as long as they don’t turn the ball over, have a complete offense. With dynamic running back David Wilson who is capable of breaking off a long run at anytime, and wide receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, catching passes from Eli Manning, this squad is capable of putting points up just as fast and often as this potent Denver Bronco offense. While the Broncos may be the best in the business at putting up points, Denver is weaker on defense with the injury to cornerback Champ Baily and with pass rushing specialist Vonn Miller out due to suspension. With this factored in I see the Giants being able to move the ball every bit as good as Denver and racking up quite a score of their own. But make no mistake, no matter what defense the Giants throw at Peyton and the Broncos, they will score, and they will score often. With some of the top receivers in the game in Wes Welker, Eric Decker, and Demaryius Thomas getting passes thrown to them by future hall of famer Peyton Manning, this Denver team will be scoring points all year on everybody. But until they sure up that defense, teams like the Giants will be able to match them blow for blow. I expect a wild shootout and a surprisingly close game that flys over the total.

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Seattle Seahawks -3 over San Francisco 49ers : Bet 2 units

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Seattle Seahawks -3 over San Francisco 49ers : Bet 2 units

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*To be noted, the wager on this game weighted as a 2 unit bet at Seattle -3. If your sportsbook offers a line at -3.5 to -4 that will lower the units wagered to 1. Any line offered at -4.5 or higher do not bet .

Result: Seattle Seahawks 29 : San Francisco 49ers 3

It should be illegal to bet on the Seahawks at home, but thankfully for us it’s not. Seattle is 9-2 against the spread at home and 8-0 with the team they currently field. That is just insane, but its understandable, not only because they have the loudest stadium in the league disrupting opponents game plans, but they are one of the most completely dominant teams in the league to deal with. Even though the 49ers are fantastic in their own right, playing in Seattle last year was the only place where their young phenom quarterback Colin Kaepernick looked overmatched as the Seahawks mauled him and the 49ers 42-13. Well not a lot has changed since last year. Both of these teams have pretty much stayed exactly the same with the only difference being both of the young star Quarterbacks are now more experienced. Speaking of that, it’s no secret the 49ers have struggled with top rated passers as of late dating back to the playoffs of last year, as well as week 1 with Packers Quarterback lighting them up for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. Expect Seattle’s Russell Wilson to do the same as he is an excellent passer and is will be very hard for that vaunted 49er pass rush to get a handle on him due to his incredible mobility. The 49er offense is an absolute powerhouse as well with the ultra dynamic Kaepernick leading a balanced offense consisting of some of the best weapons in the league. Wide receiver Anquan Boldin has proved to be quite a handful for any defense, but if any defense stands a chance of stifling this big strong receiver, its Seattle with their monster cornerbacks Sherman and Browner. I believe the Seahawks on a neutral field still may have a slight edge over these tough 49ers, but on their home turf, these Seahawks are awe inspiring.

1 Response

ThePOGG
Sep 16, 2013

Here's our bets on yesterday's games. Due my failure to communicate information clearly to Aramon, Aramon did not include a bet I placed (Baltimore) and I didn't bet on a pick he included (Houston). As such, for tallying the results of this season we're going to discount the Baltimore game which was a win, as no-one else had the chance to play it and count the Houston game, which was a loss.

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