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Aramon’s 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 2

Posted by THEPOGG on Sep 12, 2013

The first week of the season saw us really get off to a slow start. Starting in the negative is of course never a good thing, but its also nothing to get to concerned about either. The NFL season is a marathon not a sprint, and we are built for the long haul so no worries. With that being said we put the week 1 disappointment behind us and concentrate on what looks to be a fantastic new week of wagering opportunity. It starts tonight with our upset pick of the week, We stay conservative again this week, as there is still more to be seen of the teams, but things are slightly more clear this week than last so the confidence level is high!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here’s how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our pick tonight the New York Jets cannot lose by 11.5 points or more (i.e. 12 points as you can’t get half points.) for us to win this wager. A push (tie) would result in a Jet loss of exactly 11 points

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams.

Monday’s results : -3.0 units
10% house vig on losses : -3.3units
Total to date : -9.0 units

Book

Line

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New York Jets +11 over New England Patriots : Bet 2 units

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New York Jets +11 over New England Patriots : Bet 2 units

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*To be noted, the wager on this game weighted as a 2 unit bet at Jets +11. If your sportsbook offers a line at +10 to +10.5 that will decrease the units wagered to 1. Any sports book offering a line 9.5 or lower, do not bet.

Result : New York Jets 10 : 13 New England Patriots

This may be the only week this year the Patriots will be this vulnerable so I believe its a good time to capitalize on the injury riddled New England offense. This year the Patriots are challenged to begin with having to start fresh with a new cast of characters on the offensive side of the ball. Of course Tom Brady can boost any offense, but there is a time when the limitations will become obvious. Last week the Patriots were okay but not great, and a lot of what made them even just good is gone this week against the Jets. New wide receiver Danny Amendola had a good game and was very clutch for the Patriots last week and was key in their close fought victory. He is out this week with a groin injury, and as he was replacing the old Wes Welker dynamic that makes the Patriots so potent, his absence is huge. Patriots also put running back Shane Vereen on the 8 week inactive list. He was also an integral part of a very good Patriot running game as well as another passing threat. With at least another week of star tight end Rob Gronkowski being out, this is far from the Patriot offense that anyone has been used to seeing, at least for this week. And this Jet defense that they will be facing is a far more daunting task then the one they struggled with last week up in Buffalo. Jet head coach Rex Ryan is a defensive specialist that is more hands on with that side of the ball and it showed last week in their surprising win over Tampa Bay and how they shut down the Buc’s very potent offense. I don’t expect the Jets to light up the scoreboard against the Patriot’s, but New York’s rookie quarterback Geno Smith showed surprising poise under pressure last week and also offers a running dynamic that the Jets offense hasn’t had under the Mark Sanchez helm. Factor this in with the fact that Rex Ryan is 4-0 when getting 9 points or more as the Jet Head Coach. Also to be noted, even the absolute best Patriot offenses we have seen have only covered 11 out of their last 26 games when favored by 10.5 to 14 points, and this Patriot offense tonight is far more compromised than those of the past. I certainly do not expect this game to be a laughter, Jets creative defense keeps this game within reason.

1 Response

ThePOGG
Sep 15, 2013

And here's our bet from Monday;

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