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Sep 19

Aramon’s 2013/14 NFL Picks: Week 3 (Thursday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

The season is beginning to shape up nicely! Last week saw us pull a nice win and the teams are starting to really show their true make ups. Another week and we should be able to start putting our foot on the gas a little more in terms of our wager amounts. But for this week we still stay somewhat conservative as we build up some equity not only in our team data, but in our bankroll as well. Tonight’s game is one I believe will jump start our week towards another fine positive week. Enjoy the game, and the extra cash it should bring!

For those joining us new this year as well as a reminder to last years followers, here’s how I factor the wager amounts. The betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly I am doing this season.

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Philadelphia Eagles would have to beat the Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points or more for us to lose this bet

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. There is none on tonight’s game

Monday’s results : +3.0 units
10% house vig on losses : 0.0 units
Total to date : -3.5 units

Book

Line

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Kansas City Chiefs +3 over Philadelphia Eagles : Bet 2 units

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Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 over Philadelphia Eagles : Bet 3 units

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The Chiefs +3 warrants a 2 unit wager. If your sportsbook offers +2.5 only bet 1 unit. If offering 3.5 to 4 points bet 3 units.

Result: Kansas City Chiefs 26 : Philadelphia Eagles 16

Tonight’s game should be an emotional return for Kansas City’s new head coach Andy Reid as he returns to Philadelphia for the first time after leaving as the long time Eagles head coach. Even more important to the game is, Reid brings in a knowledge of all the key personnel of Philly’s dynamic offense. Even if new head coach Chip Kelly’s frenetic new offense is nothing like what Andy Reid ran, it’s still run by every player Reid had there and he knows all their tendencies, strengths and weaknesses, and just may be able to game plan far better than most against this explosive new Chip Kelly offensive scheme. The Eagles while taking the league by storm with this new fast paced offense has been able to score quite a bit, have been exposed at being very vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball. Last week even with the Eagles offense putting up gaudy stats for Quarterback Michael Vick, with over 428 yards passing and 2 touchdowns, and wide receiver DeSean Jackson catching 9 passes for 193 yards, and overall scoring 30 points, it wasn’t enough. Their defense gave up 33 and the Chargers put up equally gaudy stats. The Chiefs come into Philly at 2-0 and look to be a bad matchup for the Eagles. Kansas City’s offense has the ability to sustain long clock eating drives with new Quarterback Alex Smith’s game management skills, and with running back Jamaal Charles to run as well as catch the ball out of the backfield. The Chiefs do not turn the ball over either, so expect Kansas City to do the best possible thing to slow down Philly’s offense, that’s keep the ball out of their hands. Eagles have been notoriously bad at home as well since last season going 2-7 straight up, and even worse against the spread at 0-8-1. I think the blend of a very stout Chiefs defense, a time consuming offense, Andy Reid’s inside track on his opponents players, not to mention getting 3 points, leads to a nice play on KC here.

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