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Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Conference Championship Picks

Posted by THEPOGG on Jan 18, 2015

NFL

Well today’s conference championship games winners will determine this seasons Super Bowl teams. While its been a very disappointing season wagering this year, its always an exciting week of playoff football to determine which teams get to play in the big game. We have opportunity in both games to see if we can cash in and put a drop back in our negative bucket. Last week we were just one disputed dropped pass away from having a positive week. Thus has been typical of our season. However I still look at whatever wagers we have left as a chance to bet positively, and this week looks as good as one can expect at this juncture in the playoffs. So worry not of our past struggles and enjoy what todays games bring us in entertainment and cash!

Sunday’s results : -7.3 units
Total to date : -102.8 units

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Seattle Seahawks -8 over Green Bay Packers : Bet 7 units

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Result:

Well this game at first glance looks like a great matchup. The Packers superstar QB Aaron Rodgers and his high powered offense squaring off against that vaunted ferocious Seattle defense. Unfortunately for the Packers, its really not what they would like to see right now. With Rodgers playing through a mobility limiting calf injury, it drastically effects the impact what this superstar QB can do against the best defense in the league. Even at full strength when these two teams played in the first game of the season Seattle destroyed Green Bay. While the Packers ended up catching fire and hitting stride later in the season, so did the Seahawks. Not only has Seattle’s defense looked every bit as good as the super bowl champion defense of last year, the offense led by QB Russell Wilson is really playing well now too, and there are no teams out there with a total answer on how to stop the running game behind the legs of Wilson and the Beast RB Marshawn Lynch. If last week was any indication of what Rodgers can accomplish playing through injury, I’d say while very good, he struggled at times and make no mistake about it, getting by against a Dallas defense is child’s play compared to what Seattle has in store today. I think the greatness of Rodgers will be tested today and he may have some moments where he shines, but the majority of the game will belong to Seattle, especially at home. I can see this game slowly getting away from Green Bay as each quarter passes. By games end I believe Seattle will be comfortably ahead and many people will be wondering what if Rodgers had been healthy. I think Seattle at home still would have taken it, but it may have been more competitive. I even think there is a possibility with the pressure and hits that will be put on Aaron Rodgers today that he may not even finish the game.

Indianapolis Colts +6.5 over New England Patriots : Bet 6 units

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Result:

So many people believe the Colts are lucky to be here and that New England playing at home today should roll over Indy today. I find that highly unlikely. As unbelievable as it may sound, the Patriots have been a bad bet in the playoffs lately going just 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 playoff games. Not saying they can’t pull off a win today against Indy, just saying this should at least be a close and competitive game. And while the Colts QB Andrew Luck is a superstar in the making, the knock on him has been a high turnover rate. Well the thing of it is Luck has really upped his game and is playing fantastic and has been rolling in the post season. He actually has more yards passing in his first 5 playoff games than any QB in NFL history. He also has help lately in the form of RB Dan Herron who has been dynamic the last few weeks and has really softened up pass rushes against Andrew luck as well as opening up effective play action plays. The Colts defense has also been vastly improved as they move through the post season only giving up 23 points, and holding the Broncos to only 288 yards of offense, 115 below their average. Of course the Patriots are the top dog of the AFC for a reason. With possibly the best QB in the game, the best coach in the game, and an improved defense led by possibly the best cornerback in the game, the Patriots offer an incredible obstacle for the Colts to hurdle to get to the Super Bowl. If this game was being played 2 months ago I would have leaned the Patriots way. But that would have been against a Colts team without a running game, a questionable defense, and with Luck playing gunslinger at QB taking chances and making some costly mistakes. All those negative Colt factors seem to no longer exist which makes this a very close competitive match up. As a matter of fact on a neutral field at this moment I would see these 2 teams as virtually even. So even with New England’s home field advantage of close to a field goal, with the Colts vast improvements through the playoffs, and the Patriots propensity to not cover in the playoffs, I very much like the Colts with the points in this spot.

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