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Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Divisional Playoff Pick (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG on Jan 11, 2015


So the divisional round of the playoffs kicked off yesterday with our picks going 1-1 on a couple of pretty good games. As expected they were not of the highest value, but they were at least decent from an entertainment stand point. Today on the other hand is the mother load of value and opportunity! The rare occurrence where we can capitalize on the total and the point spread of both games! Four very solid to good bets come out of 2 games. What an excellent opportunity for a great day, and damn could we use it. Not that I have ever preached parlay betting, but today would be that day for such a wager if that was your thing. But for the straight bettor it’s still a great day, so lets go get it!

Saturday’s results : -0.3 units
Total to date : -95.5 units




Dallas Cowboys +5 over Green Bay Packers : Bet 6 units

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Well as the Cowboys come into Green Bay today something has got to give. The Packers are 8-0 at home this year while the Cowboys are a perfect 8-0 on the road. Both feats are very impressive, but I find what Dallas has achieved winning on the road a little more regarded. Also a point of note, 4 of the last 5 teams to go undefeated on the road in the regular season have gone on to the Super Bowl. That aside I believe this game comes down to Packers QB Aaron Rodgers having a significantly injured calf going into this game. While I believe even a diminished Rodgers is still a potent weapon, against an explosive Dallas team able to score lots of points, it may become a factor in pressing to keep up. Dallas QB Tony Romo has been incredible as well this year, and wih the NFL’s leading rusher DeMarco Murray running behind him as well, there is no doubt the Packers will need to score often today. The point spread has changed significantly through the week as news of Rodgers calf injury became diagnosed as a tear as well as a strain. The Packers went from a 7 point touchdown favorite down to 5 today. I believe the Packers could win this game if they play a perfect game, but it would be very close. But perfect games rarely exist and Dallas is getting the points. This makes the Cowboys a very good bet today.

Dallas Cowboys/Green Bay Packers take the over total 51 : Bet 6 units

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This is a great match up if you like exciting offensive fireworks. This will not be the low scoring affair of the famous 1967 “Ice Bowl” match up of these two storied franchises. What we have here today are 2 teams predicated on scoring and being able to do it quickly. The Packers with Aaron Rodgers and his big WR Jordy Nelson are a tandem that has not been able to be stopped all year. Even with Rodgers playing through an injury he still may be the top QB in the league on his way of being one of the best ever. The Cowboys while not having a bad defense are prone to give up over 20 points a game and should give up a fair bit more to this Green Bay offensive machine. However, the Cowboys themselves are led by a damn great QB in his own right in Tony Romo and may actually have more offensive fire power than the Packers. Dallas, has the perfect blend of offense with an array of big time wide receivers in Dez Bryant, Terrence Williams, and tight end Jason Witten, as well as having the top rusher in the league in DeMarco Murray. The Packers have a decent defense with a good pass rush, but the Lions who Dallas beat last week had a much better defense and Romo and the offense found a way to get past them and dominate the second half to a win. I don’t think either side here will offer up a real resistance on defense, it will be more about who makes less mistakes and how well Rodgers balky calf holds up as far who wins the game. It should led to a real shoot out that should easily surpass the 58 points the Cowboys have been averaging per game. Look for this total to be in hand before the last quarter.

Indianapolis Colts +8.5 over Denver Broncos : Bet 7 units

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Here we go again with Peyton Manning now QB of the Denver Broncos facing off with his old team the Colts and their young star QB Andrew Luck. Going into Denver to beat the Broncos is no easy task for any team, but with Andrew Luck and these Colts, there is always that punchers chance. Actually the Colts have historically done well vs Denver going 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 meetings. Not to mention Denver while winning consistently in the playoffs recently, have been just 1-4 against the spread. Meanwhile the Broncos coming off a bye week really needed it as they were really stumbling to the finish line this season. A lot of that I believe may have been due to Peyton Manning really struggling his last 4 games. In those games Manning had just a 76.8 passer rating with 3 TD’s and 6 INT’s. It is widely believed Manning may be pushing through an injury to his leg that has slowed him, or it could be the fatigue of the season on an aging body. Whatever the case the Colts do not have that with their fresh young QB Andrew Luck who with a strong arm and fresh legs looks to hang a big number on Denver today. The Colts with their new found running game in RB Dan Herron look to be up to the challenge as always to play a good hard competitive game against these Broncos. I would not be surprised to see the Colts win outright, but should they lose i would be shocked if it was by more than a TD. This game could get wild but it should be a battle to the end.

Indianapolis Colts/Denver Broncos take the over total 54 : Bet 7 units

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This should be a wild one. Even though Peyton Manning had a drop off in production towards the end of the season, this bye week should help energize him as well as the Bronco offense to put up some significant points on a Colts team prone to get scored on. Denver does score more at home so I don’t think there will be any issue with getting the ball into the red zone on most of their drives. However, with the Colts winning last week, you don’t get 12 wins in this league while being scored on significantly without putting up big points of your own. The Colts led by Andrew luck are a resilient bunch that have showed in the past, especially against Denver, that they will give as good as they get. The over has hit in 8 of the past 9 games involving these teams. Oddly enough Peyton Manning had a hand in playing for both the Colts and Denver during that stretch. But with Manniing firmly entrenched on the Denver side now and Luck on the Colts, there are 2 big time QB’s going at it trying to light up the score. Andrew Luck last week with his 376 passing yards against the Bengals set the all time passing yards record for a quarterback in his first 4 playoff games. He has proven no stage is too big, and Manning has been doing it for years. I expect this game to gain scoring momentum as it goes on and whoever has the ball last wins, but, wins a high scoring game.

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