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Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

Posted by THEPOGG on Jan 10, 2015

NFL

So last Sunday’s picks saw us go 1-1 with the unfortunate loss being the larger of our wagers. As has been our luck this year it was the typical tale of 2 halves. Our pick the Cowboys seemed to show up late to the dance and didn’t start playing until the second half. And while they looked exactly like the dominating team we thought they would be in the last 2 quarters, the first two put us in the hole enough that even with Dallas winning we didn’t get the cover. Today we will put up 2 small plays that should offer slight value. The big bets come tomorrow. Today should offer some good moments in the games, but not nearly the advantage of tomorrow. So we do have something in play today, which at this point no matter how miniscule can only help us. Enjoy the games!

Sunday’s results : -4.0 units
Total to date : -95.2 units

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New England Patriots -7 over Baltimore Ravens : Bet 3 units

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Result:

Baltimore’s win last week really bolstered confidence in the Ravens as a post season team. Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been amazing in the post season throwing for 20 TD’s and just 2 INT’s in playoff games going back to 2010. It seems as if the Ravens play their best in the post season and really dominated the favored Steelers last week to earn their rip to Foxborough to take on the number 1 seed New England Patriots. Well, be careful what you wish for, because you just might get it. Let me go on the record and say nobody is going into Gillette Stadium in January and beating the Patriots. The Ravens have had success against the Patriots in the last 3 post season match ups, but not this time. For 2 out of three of those games the Patriots were with out possibly the best tight end in the league, the indefensible Rob Gronkowski. Also Ravens QB Joe Flacco’s money punch is the long ball, that will not happen with this new look Patriot defense and the likes of Darrelle Revis, possibly the best cornerback in the NFL, and Brandon Browner one of the biggest and most physical cornerbacks in the league taking the long game away from the Ravens. Baltimore can run the ball but that will not be enough to compensate for what the Patriots can do on offense led by one of the best QB’s in the game Tom Brady. I think on a neutral field the Patriots have an edge over Baltimore, but I think playing in New England its more than the 7 points needed to cover.

Seattle Seahawks -12.5 over Carolina Panthers : Bet 3 units

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Result:

12.5 points is a lot of points to have to cover in the NFL, especially in a playoff game. But if there is one place where it has better odds to happen its with Seattle playing at home. The Seahawks may have one of if not the biggest home field advantages in the whole league. Kind of like New England, it will take a near miracle to come into this stadium and unseat the home team. Carolina has been hot and with last week’s wildcard victory they have now won 5 games in a row. But this Seahawk team is a different animal, especially at home in Century Link Field. Seattle had a fairly up and down season until about 3/4 of the way through, and then they turned it on looking like the beasts of last season that won the Super Bowl. They got healthy an have been stuffing offenses to the average of only 6.5 points per game over the last 6 games. That is absolutely stifling! The Seattle offense is actually quite formidable as well with the beast and highlight reel RB Marshawn Lynch running the ball and QB Russell Wilson being able to scramble, run, pass, basically do anything needed to get time to throw or run in touchdowns. Carolina is a good team playing a great team in conditions that favor the Seahawks in every category. From weather,to homefield, to the Panthers having travel across the country to a different time zone. The point spread has been steadily on the rise as people jump on the Seattle bandwagon. Well this time the public has got it right. The big point spread doesn’t make this game a steal, but its still a good bet that Seattle handles their business handily at home.

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