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Sep 04

Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Picks: Week 1 (Thursday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Well I’m back! And even more importantly the new NFL season is back! Last season disappointed in that we actually ended the season in the red. Losing units as opposed to padding our bankroll is definitely something that doesn’t sit well here, and I have a strong suspicion we will get back to our winning ways very soon. Actually last season was a terrible grind through most of it but if we look back from week 17 through to the Super Bowl we actually finished really strong taking in more than an 18 unit profit during that period. So even though the total season was down, we were right on point down the stretch. That’s where I hope to take off from to start this new season. We start off the season a bit conservative with our bets as the teams begin to reveal themselves and we start to see where the public biases lay, but nevertheless we are ready to roll. Lots of hope, and tons of money making opportunity…..and it starts tonight! So sit back folks and enjoy the ride…LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

Monday’s results : 0.0 units
10% house vig on losses : 0.0 units
Total to date : 0 units

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Green Bay Packers +5.5 over Seattle Seahawks : Bet 1 unit

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Result: Green Bay Packers 16 : 36 Seattle Seahawks

The new NFL season kicks off with a beauty of a game. Two of the big dogs of the NFC square off tonight with the Aaron Rodgers led offensive powerhouse Packers going against Super Bowl defending champs Seattle Seahawks. At first glance it may seem like maybe not a great idea to bet against the dominant Seattle home field advantage, but there are just some things that really make this a very close game and even matchup. It starts with the new much stricter rules put upon the defense not allowing them to really even touch the receivers this season. If the record number of flags this preseason are any indication how the refs are going to be calling this game in the defensive backfield, look for a huge advantage leaning towards Packer QB Aaron Rodgers, arguably the best QB in the game, to get the ball down field. Also factor in the emergence of Packer RB Eddie Lacy as a budding superstar and even this vaunted Seattle defense will be stretched to its limits. Also to be noted that one of Seattle’s big corners Brandon Browner is no longer on the team locking down the other side opposite Richard Sherman, and there will be more offense tonight against Seattle than we have been accustomed to seeing. While Seattle is stiil probably the overall better team, having a far better defense, the Packers appear to be much improved and match up well with the Seahawks. I expect a close tough game that may come right down to the end here, but the Packers with the 5.5 is the only value play here.

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Green Bay Packers / Seattle Seahawks take the over total 46.5 : Bet 2 units

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Result: Green Bay Packers 16 : 36 Seattle Seahawks

For much of the same reasons that I think the Packers will make this game close or even possibly win, is the reasons I believe this game will fly over the total. The Packers offense is just loaded with superstar talent, while their defense while appearing a little better than last year, led by perennial all pro Clay Matthews, they will not be able to shut down what is also a very good Seattle offense. Seahawk Russel Wilson has proved he is a top notch QB in this league with his intelligence, poise in the pocket, and his ability to extend plays and get critical first downs with his feet. Add to that the brutal nature in which Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch can wear down a defense and by the 4th quarter this game will be a shootout. Its worth mentioning the new no touch rules being enforced more than ever by the refs will open up talented offenses for some big scores this year. Both the Packers and Seattle are capable of putting up big numbers tonight, and they will. Seattle is tough at home and their defense is still ferocious, but Aaron Rodgers is a very special QB that will put up points on anybody, and I think they just match up well with Seattle’s defensive line being smallish. I believe the winner of this game will need to put up over 30 to win, and the loser will be right there as well.

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