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Nov 09

Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Picks: Week 10 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Ok week 10 has started off a little slow due to the Bengals basically imploding and Andy Dalton having the worst statistical ranking for a game in the teams history….hard to predict that. But that is just 1 game and we have 4 more today to get this week going in the right direction. Last week was an excellent week, and today see’s us with a chance to have back to back stellar showings. We need to string a few good weeks together to really get this season right, and i believe last week was the start of what could be a fantastic run. This weeks plays are all strong and should show us a nice profit for the day.

Thursdays’s results : -6.6 units
Total to date : -42.3 units

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Dallas Cowboys -7 over Jacksonville Jaguars : Bet 7 units

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Result:

Well the NFL heads to London again today as the Dallas Cowboys take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The big news in this game was far less about if the 1 win Jaguars could actually compete with the Cowboys, but if Dallas QB Tony Romo would play, the answer being yes. Which leads to the other answer, no the Jags will not be able to hang with the Cowboys today. Even if Romo is somewhat limited by his back injury he will be far better to lead the team especially on 3rd downs over his back up Brandon Weeden. He will also be the best QB on the field today over his counterpart Jaguar QB Blake Bortles. With Dallas having the best run game in the NFL, led by top the NFL’s top rusher DeMarco Murray, expect little pressure on Tony Romo anyway. But with him in there the Jags will have to respect the pass and it should open up a massive running attack. Even though the Jags very nearly got their 2nd win of the year last week against the supposed tough Cincinnati Bengals, with the Bengal loss Thursday night and a few other inconsistent weeks, that near win holds much less weight against a real contender like the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas while not having a great defense has a good enough one to not allow the Jaguars to get too comfortable, and with Romo on the field, the dallas offense will score on any team in the league. Not to mention one of the worst. Expect a big day from Murray, and WR Dez Bryant catching some big passes from Romo en route to a big and much needed Dallas win.

Miami Dolphins +3 over Detroit Lions : Bet 5 units

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Result:

This is a battle of 2 somewhat surprisingly good teams. Especially in Miami who started the season with no real high expectations for the season. But with beating the Patriots in the 1st week of the season and with the continuing evolution of the young QB Ryan Tannehill, not to mention a fantastic defense, these Dolphins are looking like a viable playoff contender and a real threat to the division leading Patriots for 1st place in the division. Detroit on the other hand has moved to the top of their division with brute force defense which is ranked number 1 in the league. What has bn surprising has been the Lions lack of offense this year especially with all the weapons they have. WR Calvin Johnson comes back for sure this week which will no doubt add to Miami’s list of things to worry about on defense, but that has not been a problem all year for the Dolphins. There is no team in the league that has given up fewer passing yards in the league than Miami. What makes this so impressive is the level of competition they have done that against having gone up against, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, and Phillip Rivers….all top rated QB’s. That should spell a problem with Detroit that while winning consistently has looked very shaky at times doing it and has been very mediocre against the spread at 4-4. I believe Miami is a slightly better team and with getting points in this spot I believe the Dolphins are a good play here.

Denver Broncos -11.5 over Oakland Raiders : Bet 6 units

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Result:

The Broncos QB Peyton Manning has only lost 2 games in a row once since joining the Broncos, and that was in week 2 and 3 of 2012 of his first season in Denver. So its highly unlikely that the winless Raiders will be getting that 1st win today against the Broncos. But of course there is this big point spread to contend with. Well also in Manning’s time with the Broncos, they have never lost against the spread against the Raiders going 3-0-1. The average score in those games was 33-13. This year with Denver still having one of the most potent offenses in the league, while adding a much better defense, this game has typical blowout written all over it. In the NFL it’s hard to bet against a double digit point spread, but in cases where recent history between division rivals shows such a huge discrepancy in a match up, it’s not only a good play, its the only play. Since 2012 the Broncos are 2-1 as 10+ point favorites on the road. Those 2 wins, against the Oakland Raiders. There is absolutely not one phase or aspect of the game in which Oakland has a favorable match up with Denver. And with the Broncos having the far more superior QB playing in optimal 75 degree weather, I expect this game to get out of hand fast and roll to a blowout win by the Broncos.

Arizona Cardinals/St. Louis Rams take the under total 43 : Bet 5 units

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Result:

The Cardinals come into this game with a surprising 7-1 record. Best in the NFL. For all the winning they have done they have never really sold their critics that they are really the top or even one of the top teams in the league. I’m one of them that believes that while Arizona is a good team, they are not that elite. I believe circumstance as well as luck has played into their success this year. While winning they have been far from dynamic which has lead them to be a great team performing to the under in recent times. The Cards are 5-0 to the under at home playing against division opponents, which is magnified today by the Rams being 6-1 to the under in their last 7 as road underdogs. The Rams have been a tough out this year for the top teams in their division already beating Seattle and the 49ers. If they make this game competitive, which I believe they can, it should be a low scoring affair. After all, 7 out of the last 10 games played by these 2 against each other have ended hitting the under. Regardless of the great record of Arizona, I really don’t rank either of these teams in the elite class of the league. But with both teams having representable defenses I think this game will played out like the majority of all their other match ups….an under game all the way.

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