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Nov 16

Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Picks: Week 11

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Well last week saw us once again narrowly miss that big winning day we so desperately need. Of course we did manage a slight profit on the day, but we were just a turnover and a few seconds from cashing in on a huge week. No matter, this is a new week with fresh opportunity, and yes as always I love our chances for a huge day. This week should promise some big scoring and good games. And as long as the ball bounces as its supposed too, we should expect our best week of the season and head towards righting this ship. We still have plenty of time to make this a very profitable season, today should be the start of what we need to do that.

Sunday’s results : +2.0 units
Total to date : -40.3 units

Book

Line

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San Francisco 49ers/New York Giants take the over total 44.5 : Bet 7 units

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Result:

This is a very important game for both teams. Giants need a win to have any chance of not falling hopelessly out of playoff contention, and the 49ers playing in the NFC West with Seattle and the Cardinals need a win to try and keep pace as they have been far from consistent this year. This has all the makings of tons of scoring here. The Giants defense has been suspect all season and particularly against the run. Expect the Niners to pound RB Frank Gore down the Giants throat as well as letting super mobile QB Colin Kaepernick run wild with the option read. This should not only move the ball effectively, but open up big pass play opportunities downfield for big yardage and scoring. On the other hand, the 49ers defense has been far from being as effective as lat year, and with the season ending injury to linebacker Patrick Willis, the Giants have enough weapons to expose the Niners weakened defense. New York gets their top RB Rashad Jennings back this week, and even if he is in a limited role it should open up a very potent passing attack led by QB Eli Manning and his new star WR Odell Beckham. I like the Giants at home today basically playing for their season to really be aggressive on offense. The niners on the other hand should find little resistance in their game plan and should be able to move the ball fairly easily.

Philadelphia Eagles/Green Bay Packers take the over total 55 : Bet 8 units

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Result:

This game has fireworks written all over it. The Eagles come into Green Bay a top of the NFC East and looking to get some separation from Dallas. Eagle coach Chip Kelly has built what looks to be one of the finest offensive teams in the NFL. Former Jet QB Mark Sanchez has filled in seamlessly for the injured Nick Foles and has actually blossomed under Kelly’s offensive scheme. With the Eagles fast paced offense and potent running attack led by RB LeSean McCoy, this Philly team can put up a big number on any given day against anybody. Of course the Packers are in any conversation when talking about great offense. Led by one of the best QB’s in the league in Aaron Rodgers this Packers team is almost unstoppable on offense, especially at home where they are averaging 40 points per game this year. Neither defense is great nor terrible, the Eagles have a decent pas rush, but the Packers offensive line is very good as well as Rodgers is very mobile and can extend plays. I think this game will be like 2 heavyweights exchanging blows with both scoring almost at will. It may come down to whoever has the ball last to determine who wins this one, but whomever it is….it just means more scoring. The scoreboard should light up today.

New Orleans Saints -7 over Cincinnati Bengals : Bet 4 units

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Result:

This is a game that see’s one team that typically dominates at home playing at home against a team that typically plays poorly on the road. While the Saints did lose last week at home to the 49ers, it would be extremely rare for them to drop 2 in a row at home, especially against a team like the Bengals that don’t look to be agood match up here against the Saints. The Bengals defense has pretty much fallen apart th last few games and they not only have been giving up big yards on the ground, but in the passing game as well. That will spell big trouble as New Orleans running game has really improved with RB Mark Ingram rushing for over 100 yards the last 3 games, and Saints QB Drew Brees is one of the best ever to play the game so if you are weak he will exploit you all day long. The Bengals while still very much in contention for a playoff spot have really looked poor at times, and lately more often than not. QB Andy Dalton is coming off his worse game of his career, and even when he has een good this year he has performed at not much higher than an average QB. That will not work out well with Brees on the other side leading a potent offense. The Bengals running game is also suspect and with their top RB Giovani Bernard hobbled by injury I think it would be a very longshot to think this Bengal team can even compete with Saints on any given day, but especially in New Orleans.

Detroit Lions +1 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 5 units

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Result:

Maybe I’m the last one to jump on this Arizona Cardinal bandwagon but I still don’t see them as a top elite team. Now I know you can’t go by just straight numbers, but they do account for a lot of what happens on the field and the Cardinals really do not stack up to be even in the top 15 even with an 8-1 record. The Lions on the other hand are a very good and tough team. They have a top defense that should cause havoc with the Cardinal offense, especially with starting QB Carson Palmer down for the season due to injury. His replacement Drew Stanton while not being a bad substitute, is going to feel pressure against this Lion defense like he has yet to experience. I expect this to really cause the Cards to operate a very conservative offensive game plan to try and avoid mistakes and turnovers. The Lions on the other hand have enough offensive weapons to score on this Cardinal defense enough points to pull out a win. Lions QB Matthew Stafford has his main man WR Calvin Johnson and the ever dangerous WR Golden Tate to spread out the field to establish a running game. The Lions defense should hold the Cardinals scoring down so it won’t take very many points for Detroit to pull off what may be a surprise to some, a convincing win. I believe the Cardinals finally get a bit exposed today.

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