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Nov 23

Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Picks: Week 12 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

This season has sure been a lesson in learning to deal with adversity. Another down week brought on by near misses and freak miscues. It is a good thing we start with a bankroll that should be built to handle the swings of the variance of the season, but I will admit this season has definitely pressed the issue. While last week’s loss was not a huge one by any means, it just added to our large deficit largely brought on by one horrific week. Well as I have said before, win some lose some in this game, and as long as I’m finding the values I like the chances of winning overall. So, if we can get blasted one week, I’d say its time for our huge positive week. And with a max bet on the table today, I love our chances of taking a very big step at righting this season. We still have a lot of time, but it starts today!

Sunday’s results : -9.6 units
Total to date : -49.9 units

Book

Line

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Atlanta Falcons -3 over Cleveland Browns : Bet 4 units

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Result:

The Falcons looked dead in the water this year with 5 straight losses. But with 2 straight division wins they now sit tied for the NFC South division lead with the Saints. While their 4-6 record may not look overly impressive, this Falcons team is a very strong home team and incredibly hard to contend with let alone beat on their home turf. And while the Browns have been a nice surprise story this year, they are not an overly powerful team to be able to march in to Atlanta and win on the road. In fact the Browns have been dismal on the road going 4-21 straight up in their last 25. The big news for Cleveland this week has been their start WR Josh Gordan has been able to return to the team for the first time this year due to suspension. While this may be good news going forward the fact that Gordan hasn’t played even one snap so far this season leads me to believe he will not be playing a huge role in today his first game back. While the Falcons have loads of firepower on offense the knock on them has been very shoddy defensive play. Well as of late that has improved dramatically and they have averaged just giving up 17 points per game the last two. I believe the Browns may falter a little bit to finish out the season, while the Falcons get energized competing for a division title. Atlanta at home is tough for any team, more so if the team is not elite. The Browns while improved still have a ways to go, it will be evident today.

Philadelphia Eagles/Tennessee Titans take the over total 49.5 : Bet 3 units

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Result:

The Philadelphia Eagles no matter what are just a flat out an over total machine just about every week. Especially at home where they are 4-1 this year to the over while averaging almost 36 points per game. While Philly QB Mark Sanchez had his struggles last week, this Chip Kelly run offense is a system style offense that can get the most out of anyone they need to use. And Sanchez aside from last week has filled in quite nicely and has kept this Eagle offense humming for the most part. What adds to their over potential every week has also been a weak defense. Philly’s defense ranks 24th in the league in giving up 377.7 yards per game. With the Eagle defense running so quickly this usually gives their opponents lots of time and opportunity with the ball, and lots of chances to score. The Titans while reeling having lost 4 straight, are still playing hard close games. Their young QB Zach Mettenberger has played decent and should be able to put up some points against a Philly Defense that’s giving up 25 per game. I look for the Eagles to really light it up at home coming off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Packers this week. But I also do’t expect their defense to shut anyone completely down. That spell lots of points and an easy over hit.

San Francisco 49ers -9 over Washington Redskins : Bet 10 units

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Result:

I think this is going to be just an old fashioned ass kicking today. The 49ers have been very inconsistent to start the season and it was hard to get a read on what they really had. But with 2 straight wins on the road they have put themselves right back into playoff contention as tey return home for today’s game. The Niners defense has been very good this year only surrendering 308 yards per game. And with the return of one of their top defensive stalwarts Aldon Smith last week this San Francisco defense should maul and embarrass this struggling and totally in disarray Redskin offense. The return of Washington’s QB Robert Griffin III has not only not helped the offense , it has hurt it with Washington losing both games he has started since coming back from injury. More importantly RG III has showed a complete lack of maturity on and off the field calling out team mates publicly after last weeks 27-7 loss. This lead to head coach Jay Gruden basically spelling out to the media how far RG III has not come as a QB and he really has a lot of deficiencies he needs to address. This splintered and dysfunctional locker room will do no favors for an already struggling passing game and virtually non existent run game. With this powerful Niner defense, and a very potent offense very capable of running the ball and totally controlling the game, I expect the 49ers to very methodically beat down this Redskins team in a very thorough manner. This game should never be close.

Dallas Cowboys -4 over New York Giants : Bet 7 units

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Result:

While this is technically a division rivalry game, I have a hard time calling it a rivalry this year when its very clearly a mismatch. The Cowboys already beat the Giants by 10 points in their first meeting this year, and I would be surprised if this game is even that close. With the Giants all but out of the playoff race amidst their 5 game free fall, the Cowboys are looking strong and looking to capture the division title. The Cowboys are just a bad matchup for the Giants this year. Dallas has been outstanding on the ground this year ranking 2nd in the league with over 153 yards rushing per game. The Giants run defense has been horrible this year ranking dead last i giving up an average of 145 per game. Cowboys RB and the league’s leading rusher DeMarco Murray should chew up this Giants defense and open them up to huge pass plays from QB Tony Romo as well. Coming off a week of rest from their bye, Romo should be in top form and with his main target WR Dez Bryant look for big time fireworks from the Cowboys offense. The Giants offense has been absolutely dismal during this 5 game losing skid averaging just 14.4 points per game.That was capped off by an atrocious game last week by Giant QB Eli Manning who threw 5 INT’s. While New York should be bolstered some by RB Rashad Jennings back and healthy for the second straight week, Dallas should keep the Giants offense off the field with their strong running game and ability to get 1st downs. The Giants offensive line is a mes right now so I cannot see ant reason why the Dallas defense can’t presure Eli into either turnovers or just quick 3 and outs. Dallas should roll in this game fairly easy.

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