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Dec 07

Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Picks: Week 14 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Okay, this has been brutal this season. What appeared like it was going to be a decent winning week went awry during the max bet game of taking the over in the Patriot/Packer game. Needing 58 points to win it all but looked in the bag with a total of 37 at the half. But a 0 point 3rd quarter and just 10 in the 4th lost us the game, and what would be the week as well. This week with the bankroll currently on life support we scaled back our bets to get our 3 plays in. These are all good values but we need to get a little more healthy in the bankroll department over the next month if we have any chance of making a big push through the playoffs. To do this we MUST win today! And win we will!

Monday’s results : -11.0 units
Total to date : -92.0 units

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Line

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Indianapolis Colts -3.0 over Cleveland Browns : Bet 2 units

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Result:

This NFL is predicated on having a good QB to be a viable contender these days. All the upper echelon teams that are consistently competing at the top all revolve around having a top QB. This matchup will show the difference between a good team with a great QB in the Colts, and a good team without a great QB in the Browns. The Colts Andrew Luck has shown to be one of the top QB’s in the league since the day he stepped into the league. He has driven the Colts team this year to an 8-4 record and look to winners of the AFC south division. Although Luck has shown a tendency to fumble the ball, barring any major mishaps he should lead his high powered offense over this Browns defense pretty easily. The Browns on the other hand have had a surprisingly good year, and have showed confidence in starting QB Brian Hoyar over widely publicized 1st round pick Johnny Manziel. It paid off well until recently. The last 3 games has seen Hoyar struggle mightily throwing just 1 TD with 6 INT’s. Its a good chance that if he struggles in this game we could see Manziel in the 2nd half. It won’t matter. The Browns are just out gunned against these Colts and no matter who the Browns put in at QB, the other team will still have the best player on the field in Andrew Luck.

Seattle Seahawks +1 over Philadelphia Eagles : Bet 2 units

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Result:

The Eagles host Seattle today in what some would think would be a great game between 2 good teams. Well I think the Eagles are in trouble as they are facing what finally looks like that old ferocious Seattle defense. The Seahawks struggled with inconsistency in the beginning of the season and injuries to key players had a lot to do with that. But the last couple of games have seen the Seahawks defense get healthy and come alive and are now ranked once again number 1 in the league. Of course the are not going up against a slouch in the Eagles who rank 4th in offense this year, but as the Seahawks proved in their total destruction of Denver last year in the Super Bowl, a great defense most times trumps a good offense. And while Philly has been a perfect 5-0 at home this year, that record is a bit deceiving as all those wins have come against losing teams. The last time they went up against an elite top 5 team was against Green Bay, and they hung 53 points on the Eagle defense. I don’t look for the Sehawks to be scoring 50+ points today, but they have only given up 6 points the last 2 games combined and an average of just 184 yards. The Eagles may fair a bit better, but I think this Seattle defense is really going to get to Philly QB Mark Sanchez today and really cause some problems and Philly mistakes. The Seahawks offense is run heavy but has the ability to throw when needed. I think the Seattle defense will put their offense in a great position to win this game and catapult them back into talk as Super Bowl contenders.

New England Patriots -3.5 over San Diego Chargers : Bet 2 units

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Result:

Some may lead you to believe that the Patriots may be in trouble coming off a loss to a tough Green Bay team last week and having to travel to the west coast to play a San Diego team that needs a win to stay in the playoof hunt. Well the travel for this game won’t matter much because the Patriots instead of going home after the Packer game flew straight to San Diego and have been out there all week. Also it has never been an easy task for any team to play the Patriots after a loss, this era of coach Belichick and QB Tom Brady just do not lose consecutive games. And while the Chargers are coming off a win before this past weeks bye, they have before that win failed to cover against the spread 6 straight games. The Patriots on the other hand are the polar opposite covering 4 straight until their close loss to what very well may be the best team in football at the moment the Green Bay Packers. This new Patriot defense has spelled disaster for all QB’s this year led by possibly the best cornerback in the league, Darelle Revis. The Patriot defense has held down the likes of Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Matthew Stafford to a combined 13 of 41 3rd down conversion rate. That would rank 31st in the league. While Charger Phillip Rivers is good, I can’t see him totally dominating this Patriot defense, and thats what he would have to do as I believe the Patriots will be putting up some points today. Unless the Patriots make some big costly mistakes, which they don’t do, especially against a Charger team who ranks low, 29th, in causing turnovers, New England should roll today in their bounce back win after their loss in Green Bay.

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