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Dec 14

Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Picks: Week 15 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Well thank goodness for small miracles! We finally got ourselves a positive week. Although it was a small victory it was movement in the right direction and that we will take. We will take the same route today with 3 picks all for small amounts but slightly larger then last week. With our bankroll in a shambles at the moment we are looking to rebuild to a respectable figure to make a big push through the playoffs. I think today will be a great test. A couple of unconventional sharp plays against public money reveals I still have confidence in the picks. We cannot worry about the tough season that has just passed, we must look to what’s ahead. And a nice win today starts a climb back to respectability for the season. One small step at a time.

Sunday’s results : +1.8 units
Total to date : -90.2 units

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Line

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Indianapolis Colts -7.0 over Houston Texans : Bet 3 units

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Result:

This game should be as close to a sure thing if such a thing existed. The Colts are going for a win today to clinch 1st place in the AFC South division. They do this against a Texans team fighting to stay in the playoff hunt, but have gone 0-4 against the spread against Indy in their last 4 matchups. Playing in Indianapolis has proved difficult to say the least for Houston as they have lost 12 straight on the road to the Colts. With that being said the propensity for the Colts to turn the ball over would be the only thing that could happen for the Texans to be competitive in this game. With the Texans struggling with injuries to their biggest offensive stars in WR Andre Johnson and RB Arian Foster, I expect Texan scoring to come at a premium. While the Colts led by young superstar QB Andrew Luck should find the endzone a few times. I don’t see the Texans able to compete score for score with the Colts, and as the Texans press, I would look for Texan QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to revert to the form that has made him a back up in this league as opposed to holding down a starting job. Look for the Colts to roll big time at home today.

Buffalo Bills +3.5 over Green Bay Packers : Bet 3 units

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Result:

With Green Bay challenging the Seahawks for what may be the top team in the NFC at the moment, it may seem like a curious pick to take the Bills in this spot today. But with the Packers coming up to Buffalo this looks to be a bit of a let down game for them. The Packers are coming off a game in which a very pedestrian Atlanta team gave them all they could handle, and they had a short week of preparation for a surprisingly tough Bills team. While the Packers may have one of the top offenses in the league led by arguably the best QB in the league in Aaron Rodgers, there are some chinks in the armor with this matchup versus the Bills. First off, Green Bay can’t score if their offense is not on the field. With a very potent Buffalo run game by a committee of running backs going against a Packer defense that is vulnerable against the run giving up over 114 yards per game, look for the Bills to shorten the game and keep Rodgers off the field as much as possible. Also, last week the Packers were lit up regularly by the pass against the Falcons. Look for Bills young star WR Sammy Watkins to have a big day today, especially coming off what should be an effective running game against the Packer defense. The Bills also have a very stout defense led by a really very potent pass rush. While I don’t think anyone can totally shut Aaron Rodgers down, I think they can be disruptive enough to not let the Packers roll out huge offensive numbers today. I think the Packers are coming off a brutal stretch of games that they have performed well in to put them a top of the list of elite teams in the league. Going into Buffalo feels very much like a let down game going against a non conference foe. Don’t sleep on what looks to be an under rated Bills team that is fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot.

San Francisco 49ers +10 over Seattle Seahawks : Bet 3 units

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Result:

People may call me crazy picking against Seattle at home at a time where they look increasingly like the champs of last year, while the Niners look to be playing themselves out of a playof spot. But it really just comes down to this….defense. The Seahawks defense is back to being the big bully on the block and they are just punishing offenses again. It is the primary reason that they are widely considered to be on the fast track to get back to the Super Bowl. But as great as their defense is, Seattle offense has been just pretty good. Seahawk QB Russell Wilson has been excellent, but he has really lost all his downfield playmakers this year and has been forced to make more short throws and lots of plays with his legs. Also Seahawk RB Marshawn Lynch has been the typical beast running the ball this year, but all this has lead to long time consuming drives that don’t always end up with touchdowns as opposed to field goals. Meanwhile, the 49ers wild inconsistency this year can be due to the seeming regression of QB Colin Kaepernick and a questionable offense, but the 49er defense has still been good, and they travel very well. This all leads me to believe that this game will be a somewhat low scoring affair. In a case such as this getting 10 points is huge. It means that there will probably not be a blowout and even if the Seahawks win this game, it won’t be a large margin because the low scoring will not allow it. Also, the 49ers still have a punchers chance to make the playoffs and they can only keep those hopes alive with a win here. They would need Kaepernick to play like the Kaepernick of old to have a shot of actually winning this game, but for the cover with the 10 points, all we just need is good defense and just a flash of good offense here and there.

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