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Dec 21

Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Picks: Week 16 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Ok looks like we are taking baby steps here but at least in the right direction. Last week saw us have no losses for the first week this season! The bad news is we pushed 2 games and won a small 3 unit bet. The good news is we won 3 badly needed units! This week amounts to an all in bet. We have 3 very strong plays but due to our depleted bankroll need to put up less to get all 3 bets in. However, even with the smaller bets this would end us if we get swept today. The great thing is, that is highly unlikely, and what is even more likely is we come through with a fantastic win. I have the utmost confidence within the next 2 weeks I can get this bankroll in much better shape for a massive push through the playoffs. No guarantees of course, but very confident. So lets get ready for a nice shot in the arm today with some really strong wagers!

Sunday’s results : +3.0 units
Total to date : -87.2 units

Book

Line

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Green Bay Packers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers take the over total 49 : Bet 4 units

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Result:

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers had his worst statistical day as a QB as a pro last week vs. Buffalo. The high flying Packers were shut down scoring just 13 points in the loss. Looking at that game a lot can be contributed to an amazing Bills defense that actually is close to par with the Seahawks ferocious D. Another problem last week was the outstanding receivers of the Packers had an uncharacteristic 7 passes dropped. One that would have resulted in a touchdown. Well this is a far different story this week and the Packers offensive machine should explode! The Packers this week go up against a very week Tampa Bay defense ranked 25th in the league. As well as the Packers receivers went 14 weeks being elite only to have an anomaly last week of dropped passes. The odds are very high that will not happen again. The Packers need to win the next 2 games to win their division and to assure themselves a number 2 seed in the playoffs. This week they go against a Bucs team they should bully from start to end and throw up some big numbers on. Tampa Bay on the other hand has struggled on offense this year averaging just over 18 points a game. Well if they even come close to that average this game will easily hit the over total. I believe with the game well in hand come the 4th quarter, the Buccaneers will put up some late game garbage points as the Packers ease off the throttle. This look to be an easy hit on the over.

St. Louis Rams -6.5 over New York Giants : Bet 4 units

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Result:

Even though the Giants have looked better of late, all they can beat is bad teams it seems. Even tnough the Rams come into this game at 6-8, this is a team trending upward at a very fast pace. If this Rams team were playing in week 1 the way they are playing now, they would be playoff bound. While the Giants have been just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 road games, the Rams have been 4-1 against the spread in their past 5 games as well as being 4-0 against teams with a losing record. While the Giants have found a legitimate superstar in WR Odell Beckham, their offense will need far more than that against this stifling Rams defense. This Rams defense has not given up a touchdown in 3 games, and just a total of 6 in the last 7 games. I really look for this to be a problem for this Giants offense as well as I expect the pressure to cause the interception prone Eli Manning into some mistakes. The St. Louis offense has not exactly been lighting it on fire either, but against the Giants I believe the Rams defense may aid the offense in scoring points with superior field position all day, as well as a good possibility of defensive points scored. Look for the Rams to pound the ball on the ground a lot to take pressure of the passing game while opening up big play options. I believe the Giants last 2 wins against bad teams have helped mask a bad New York team while the Rams rough start and close losses to exceptional teams has masked what is a good team. Today all should be exposed to what is real which in turn should bode well for us.

Buffalo Bills -7 over Oakland Raiders : Bet 4 units

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Result:

The only concern siding with the Bills here would have to be travel to the west coast and the time difference. However with game a later start as is customary with west coast games the start time of the game should be of no factor. And with this Bills defense playing at such an elite level, I see nothing getting in the way of them just manhandling the Raider offensive line and causing chaos. The Bills absolutely dominated the Packers and maybe the best QB in the league in Aaron Rodgers last week en route to a 24-13 victory. That huge upset (one that we picked by the way) kept the door open for the Bills slim playoff hopes. A loss today and they are done, and next week they go up against the top dog New England Patriots. I look for the Bills to march into Oakland and simply whip this 2 win Raiders team as they stand in the way of the Bills turning their years of struggling around. This is not a typical trap game for Buffalo that will get caught napping against a weak opponent envisioning next week’s game vs. New England. The Bills need every game now, there is no game less or more important. They need this game bad and the Raiders are a weak opponent that stands in their way. The Bills are 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games, but is what even more telling they are 6-0 to the under in their last 6. This just means teams cannot score against them, and it won’t happen today with a Raiders team and there rookie QB Derek Carr. I expect a total whistle to whistle domination by Buffalo today. Even with the Raiders being at home with a very supportive home crowd, I don’t think there will be much for them to get loud about today.

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