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Sep 14

Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Picks: Week 2 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Week 1 of the season is in the books and although the results were less than stellar, that is the reason for being very conservative in the beginning of the season. Although I always believe we play with value on our side, the speculation is much higher at the start of the start of the season as the teams sort their true selves out. That being said, its also a time for nice small plays based on public over reaction to certain losses as well as wins. A couple of our plays today are hoping to take advantage of the public’s perception of the teams based on just 1 week. Even though this weeks picks see us going all chalk (picking favorites), I believe at least some of them are being undervalued. So again we go conservative, but hopefully lucrative!

Sundays’s results : -1.3 units
Total to date : -2.4 units

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Carolina Panthers -2.5 over Detroit Lions : Bet 1 units

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Result: Carolina Panthers 24 : 7 Detroit Lions

I feel this is a game in which Detroit’s dominant win last week against the hapless Giants is skewing the number here to lessen the Carolina edge. Good we like that. Not to say Detroit didn’t look impressive last week with QB Matthew Stafford throwing for 341 yards behind a very strong offensive line, as well as Megatron Calvin Johnson catching 164 of those yards for 2 TD’s. However, the Giants are just flat out bad and could do nothing in the way of pressuring Stafford. Carolina’s pass rush is stifling, and will very likely bring pressure and heat to Detroits QB Stafford, who has a propensity when under pressure to make mistakes. Look for that here today. On the other side Carolina is getting their star QB Cam Newton back for this game. As well as his back up Derek Anderson played filling in for him last week, the upgrade at QB with Newton this week is substantial. Also Carolina has been near perfect against the spread at home in the last 6 games going 5-0-1. I believe the added threat of Newton as a passer as well as runner, plus a great defence will slow down this Detroit team and bring them into the reality this is not the Giants this week

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New England Patriots -5.5 over Minnesota Vikings : Bet 1 unit

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Result: New England Patriots 30 : 7 Minnesota Vikings

Okay, no need to hit the panic button on the Patriots just yet as they come off a very discouraging loss to division rival Miami that saw them totally collapse in the 2nd half. All week the experts went from the pre season prediction of the Patriots making it to he Super Bowl, to now a team that will struggle to even make the post season. Please stop. In my estimation the Patriots have the ability to be a far better team than last year. Their defence has improved greatly and with the addition of Darrelle Revis at Cornerback they now have a shut down corner while their D line is healthy again. They played a stellar 1st half last week, and then let the game get out of hand in the 2nd. I am betting a Bill Bellichick coached team with Tom Brady at QB will not only not allow that to happen again, I bet they will roll up a score on this game. The Vikings while looking actually surprisingly good last week, will be without their number 1 offensive star RB Adrian Peterson. This has a major impact as last week’s Vikings offensive explosion was so evenly balanced between the run and pass game that it was hard to defend. This week will not see that balance. As well as I believe the Patriots will find that prolific offence that is healthy and primed for a great season. Do not let a bad half game of 1st week football to deter the thinking of this Patriots team being a top AFC powerhouse. I expect a big game from them.

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San Francisco 49ers -7 over Chicago Bears : Bet 2 units

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Result: San Francisco 20 : 28 Chicago Bears

Well this game looks like if I wasn’t going very conservative to start, would be a high level play. The 49ers look to again be a very dominant team in the NFC. Very well balanced offence with a terrific dynamic young QB in Colin Kaepernick as well as a defence that slightly surprises me to be very close in strength as last year. Chicago on the other hand is still a very up and down team that may find that balance as the year progresses, but right now with their top receivers dinged up, and defence playing like a sieve, they will be hard pressed this week to come into San Francisco and have any real success. This is just a bad match-up for the Bears. They gave up 193 yards rushing last week against Buffalo and that looks as if it will be a chronic problem this season. The 49ers led by RB Frank Gore will look to capitalize on this, and if successful will lead to Kaepernick to make some big plays. Bears Qb Jay Cutler while piling up well over 300 yards passing last week with 2 TD’s, also threw his typical 2 interceptions. Against this Niner defence expect more of the same in the way of INT’s, but with less yards. Chicago is historically bad playing in San Fran going 0-8 in their last 8 games there, while never scoring more than 15 points. That won’t come close to cutting it today. I expect the Niners to take this one handily.

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