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Sep 18

Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Picks: Week 3 (Thursday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Alright this young NFL season has finished up its first 2 weeks and it see’s us at 3-3 with a slight deficit. That’s no problem, actually it’s fine. The first couple of weeks of the season is almost like a scrimmage for betting. We get to analyze the talent and matchups and begin to determine where we will be laying our money in the future. The key is to play smart off the top and be ready when it’s time to lay the wood. After this week we should be ready to jump back in and start really playing the values as usual. But for tonight we stay conservative, even if this one looks pretty strong.

Sundays’s results : -0.2 -0.2 units
Total to date : -2.6 units

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Atlanta Falcons -6.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers : Bet 3 units

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Result: Atlanta Falcons 56 : 14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This game between 2 NFC South rivals has proven to be a typical home field advantage affair for quite a while. Last season both teams won and covered their games against each other at home. The favourite in the game between these teams is 5-1-1 against the spread, while the home team is 4-1-1 vs the spread in the past 6 match ups. With all that being said the real thing to look at here is….the Falcons are a better team and they are home. Tampa comes into this game with a pretty banged up defense and an offense that has really been playing conservative and poorly leading to their 0-2 record. Conversely, Atlanta has looked fantastic on offense and lead by QB Matt Ryan and his big time wide outs Julio Jones and Roddy White, they should really light up this banged up Buccaneer defense. Even though Atlanta’s defense hasn’t looked that great, this is the perfect opponent for them in Tampa to actually look better. The anaemic way in which the Bucs have moved the ball even if remotely successful, will be in no way be able to match a Falcon team that should easily run up over 30 points tonight. This should be another case of home team favourite winning and covering…without much trouble.

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