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Sep 28

Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Picks: Week 4 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

I’m sure you have all heard someone that was confident about something start off talking about it with….If I was a betting man…etc. Well it just so happens I am! And with this being the 4th week of the season we are finally ready to be confident in what the numbers are showing and what is the highest expectation to wager properly on. This week has us really starting off with very solid bets and with that comes very solid chance for a great winning week. The first 3 weeks see’s us at just slightly over 50% winning percentage and almost even in bankroll. Not bad for almost a month of data gathering. Today is where we hope it all starts paying off. So sit back and enjoy week 4….this will spring board us into a great lucrative season!

Sundays’s results : -1.5 units
Total to date : -1.1 units

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Indianapolis Colts -7.5 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 6 units

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Result: Indianapolis Colts 41 : 17 Tennessee Titans

I really should start this off with, the Colts are really good at beating and covering against bad teams, and the Titans qualify as that. The Colts are not only 14-2 against the spread against teams with a losing record in their last 16 games, they are 5-0 against the Titans ATS. (against the spread) The Colts are coming off a game in which their star QB Andrew Luck was amazing and seems to be in rounding in to mid season form. Meanwhile the Titans have really looked poor and to add to that struggling Titan QB is dealing with a wrist injury and if he can’t go today his replacement Charlie Whitehurst who has started only 4 games in his career is a steep drop off even with Locker playing poorly. The Titans have been averaging about 14 points a game thus far and that shouldn’t look to change too much today. While both teams are 1-2 going into this game there is a far different feeling about each team. While the Titans have struggled and even let Bengals QB Andy Dalton catch a TD pass last week, the Colts have played tough and are the favorite to win their division. The Titans have done nothing to impress and have gone under the total in all their games thus far. Meanwhile the Colts have gone over. While this is not a wager ont the points total, it is a good barometer of the vast difference of these 2 teams. Colts should dominate whistle to whistle today

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San Diego Chargers -13 over Jacksonville Jaguars : Bet 5 unit

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Result: San Diego Chargers 33 : 14 Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chargers are a very good team. Better than expected, well except for maybe us. The Jaguars were supposed to be improved over last year, so far it has not shown to be the case. And today is the day they will be throwing rookie QB Blake Bortles out their in a trial by fire pro debut. He wasn’t supposed to start a game until next year, but with no other choice the Jags are putting him out there. And while the discrepancy in Qb’s with Chargers Phillip Rivers playing like one of the best in the league now may be quite large, the problem really isn’t how good or bad Bortles will be, its how bad this Jacksonville defense is. The Jaguars are worst in yardage given up and even more incredibly are giving up almost 40 points a game. This spells huge trouble coming into San Diego and playing these Chargers at home. Even with San Diego struggling to run the ball it’s a non issue because they love to throw it and the Jaguars can’t stop anything. The Chargers are 3-0 so far ATS in this young season and look to pile on a Jaguars team that is severely unable to defend anyone, let alone Phillip Rivers potent passing attack at home. Anything under a 2 TD handicap is a bargain for the Chargers vs. these Jags, and with -13 we are looking good here.

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San Francisco 49ers/Philadelphia Eagles take the over total 49.5 : Bet 6 units

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Result: San Francisco 49ers 26 : 21 Philadelphia Eagles

This game looks to be one entertaining matchup. The Eagles are undefeated this season and their coach Chip Kelly is looking like a genius with this hyper fast offense he runs. They face a big test today heading to San Fran and taking on a very desperate but dangerous 49er team. While the 49ers have a very stout defense the Eagles have proved their new wave offense can score on anybody, and even when temporarily stymied like in the Browns game being down 17-0 at the half, they can make adjustments on the fly like they did in that game to score 34 unanswered points in the second half and win the game. However, the Eagles defense is still prone to get beat and have given up 61 points the last 2 games. This is exactly what a very good but floundering team like the Niners need. Look for them to be aggressive and attack to score first and not try to play catch up against this super Eagle offense. This game looks to have all the makings of a shootout and we should be very comfortable hear by even halftime.

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New Orleans Saints/Dallas Cowboys take the over total 53.5 : Bet4 units

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Result: New Orleans Saints 17 : 38 Dallas Cowboys

Another big game here with Dallas looking to add to their surprising start to the season after 2 very big road wins. They come home today and host the Drew Brees led Saints. Both teams are capable of scoring a ton of points. Both teams are capable of giving up as much as they get. The Saints are a far better home team than road, so picking a side here has really no value, but history lends itself to these teams hitting the over total like they have the last 3 meetings. With Cowboy RB DeMarco Murray really running wild this year, Dallas QB Tony Romo has really been able to play his way back into shape following of season surgery. The Dallas offense can be one of the best in the NFL, and against a Saints team playing on the road, you can bet Dallas will light it up. But there is no dog in future hall of famer Drew Brees and he can light it up with the best of them. This looks to be a big time back and forth affair leading to both teams scoring over 30….that will do just fine for us. Fun game to watch if you like offense…and in our case if you like cash.

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