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Oct 04

Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Picks: Week 5 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Well we have really started to roll this season and Thursday’s win has kicked us off nicely to start the 5th week of the season. Our conservative approach out of the gate this year has appeared to really allow the season to play out before we over committed to the usual preseason hype. While there is still along way to go, I believe we have a chance for our finest season so far! And it continues with 3 more strong plays for today, so lets continue with our steady build of the bankroll!

Thursdays’s results : +4.0 units
Total to date : +11.3 units

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Pittsburgh Steelers/Jacksonville Jaguars take the over total 47.5 : Bet 8 units

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Result: Pittsburgh Steelers 17 : 9 Jacksonville Jaguars

Its tough to fathom but the Steelers are no longer that ferocious defense they have built their reputation on. In giving up 27 points to the Buccaneers last week with just 1 sack, they have been trending down on defense since the first game of the season. Injuries have made this Pittsburgh team very different defensively, but thankfully they are very solid offensively which is exactly what we like here. Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger has been fantastic the last 2 weeks passing for 73% completion percentage while throwing 5 td’s and no INT’s. This all bodes well going up against a very weak Jaguar defense which ranks worst in the league in overall defense in giving up yards and points. But they have looked much on the offensive side of the ball, and seem to have found something in their rookie QB Blake Bortles. In the first 10 quarters of the season the Jaguars scored just 27 points. In the past 6 with Bortles taking over the starting job at QB they have already scored 31. They look to be getting more aggressive on offense now that they have found a viable QB. They need to if they want to find a few wins this season and Pittsburgh is a team that can be exploited this year on defense. This game should see steady scoring throughout, leading to a high total and big win for us.

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New Orleans Saints -10.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers : Bet 5 unit

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Result: New Orleans Saints 37 : 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Even with the big number here it is never a bad bet taking the Saints at home. New Orleans is 20-3-1 ATS in their last 24 games at home as the favorite. No team including the Seahawks and their home heavy favorite status can math the Saints in this department. Meanwhile the Bucs just don’t fair well going on the road against the NFC south going just 2-8 ATS in their last ten. While the Bucs are coming off a big emotional win, this will be their 3rd road game in a row and they are marching into the teeth of a Saints team playing at home and desperate for a win. Look for Drew Brees to light up this Bucs team that has failed to cover in the last 3 meetings againts the Saints at home. Even with Tampa’s young QB Mike Glennon looking very good, expect the Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan to throw in packages that will fluster the young QB. Nothing of the sort will happen with Saints QB Drew Brees. I expect this to get out of hand quick and the raucous Saints fans to have lots to cheer about.

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Chicago Bears +2.5 over Carolina Panthers : Bet 5 units

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Result: Chicago Bears 24 : 31 Carolina Panthers

Carolina has yet to lose to an NFC opponent, I think that ends this week. The bottom line is, Chicago can score….a lot….against anybody, Carolina can’t. While the Panthers have looked surprisingly effecient on offense this season without their former star receiver Steve Smith, QB Cam Newton still looks to be playing hurt which severely limits their offense. And while Carolina has been respectable defensively their run defense has been weak. That should open up huge opportunities for Bears star RB Matt Forte. He should prove to be a nightmare in the run game as well as catching passes out of the backfield. Also great news for Chicago is superstar wide receiver Brandon Marshall who has been hobbled by injury of late, practiced in full on Wednesday and looks to be ready to go this week. As long as Bears QB Jay Cutler does not make any huge mistakes with turnovers, this Carolina team may just get exposed on defense this week. And with no explosive offense to keep up with the Bears, I like Chicago in an outright win here.

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