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Oct 19

Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Picks: Week 7 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

The past couple of weeks have proved to be a bit of a disappointment to say the least. While we may be down a fair amount at the moment, it is absolutely no time to worry, waiver, or deviate from playing the values as should be done. We start with a bankroll and bet accordingly so we may withstand the bumps in the road just like the one we just hit. With this being said we see some of the best plays of the year come our way today and we shall play them properly regardless of past results because today is a new day….possibly our finest this season. So lets get back up on the horse and turn this around today….we have the opportunity!

Sundays’s results : -17.6 units
Total to date : -21.1 units

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Green Bay Packers -6 over Carolina Panthers : Bet 7 units

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Result: Green Bay Packers 38 : 17 Carolina Panthers

I will be the first to admit that Carolina looks to be for real this year. Definitely the best in their division. But the Panthers are playing in a suspect division that include the Saints and Falcons, perennial contenders usually, but looking far from formidable this season. So as Carolina leads that division, they come into Lambeau Field today playing a Packers team that is very formidable at home. And While Green Bay has had a couple of tough losses this year, Packer QB Aaron Rodgers has played extremely well since week 1. When Rodgers is on the Packers are tough to beat anywhere, forget at home. And while neither team has done well in running the ball this year, the Packers at least have a good healthy RB in Eddie Lacy that may get on track against the weak run defense of Carolina. Panther QB Cam Newton has been playing good as well, but with so many injuries in key positions at receiver and RB, he may not have the supporting cast to keep up with Rodgers and that Packer offense. Carolina is also coming off a tough 5 quarter tie with the Bengals last week. They are banged up pretty good and it would be a tall task to come into Green Bay and win regardless. With injuries and just not being able to go score for score, it looks like The Packers should pull away in this one.

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Detroit Lions -1.5 over New Orleans Saints : Bet 9 unit

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Result: Detroit Lions 24 : 23 New Orleans Saints

This game to me has mismatch written all over it. If not for popularity of the Saints QB Drew Brees this line should be much more heavily favored for the Detroit Lions. As pretty much a top team year in and year out the Saints are getting far to much public backing for the past. They are really just not that good this season, and even more to the point, they have never traveled well and have always been a poor road team even during better seasons. The line is skewed down also due to the best receiver in the game, Detroit’s Calvin Johnson, most likely either out or severly limited for this game with a high ankle sprain. Well, in he past that may have been worth far more than it is today. The Lions used to depend on high octane offense and QB Matthew Stafford throwing for tons of yards to keep them in games. This is a far different team this year. Th Lions are winning with defense. They come into this game with the best defense in the NFL. While WR Johnson would be missed by anybody, its far less of a factor as the Lions now just shut down offenses and need to score little more than 2 TD’s a game to win this season. The Saints are struggling. On the road they are jut not good. Against the best defense in the league that’s playing at home, even the great Drew Brees can’t pull this one out. Look for Detroit to really shut down the Saints today.

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Indianapolis Colts -3 over Cincinnati Bengals : Bet 8 units

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Result: Indianapolis Colts 27 : 0 Cincinnati Bengals

The Colts are a surging team looking to make a statement that they belong a top of the AFC with the rest of the elites. The Bengals are beaten up and find themselves a step back from where they were just a cuople of weeks ago. Cincy came into October undefeated, but an embarrassing loss to San diego, and a brutal tie last week to Carolina has got the Bengals back on their heels a bit. Not to mention there most potent offensive weapon WR A.J. Green will be out with injury for this game. This spells bad news for a team that has to try and match up with one of the most potent offenses in the league led by one of the best QB’s in the league in Andrew Luck. The Colts at home today come into this game on a 4 game winning streak that has not only seen their offense play well, but their defense, specifically their pass rush be dominant recording 16 sacks in this 4 game winning streak. Bengals QB Andy Dalton while being an able passer, is prone to mistakes when pressured. Without his main go to receiver in Green I expect the Colts to be able to apply serious pressure without too much consequence. This may cause trouble for the Bengals in their offensive scheme as well as producing turnovers. The Colts have been big time against the spread going 5-1 this season and with a very balanced team on offense and defense its not hard to see why. I believe Indy continues their winning surge handily while Cincinnati continue their October falter.

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