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Oct 26

Aramon’s 2014/15 NFL Picks: Week 8 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Last week saw us get back on track with a nice moderate win. Just 1 point was the difference between our decent win and a huge victory that could have seen us catapult back into the black. Well no matter, a win is fantastic, and this week is a monster! The games today look so skewed in public betting that we sand to have our best single week in the 3 seasons I’ve been picking here. Of course there are no such things as locks, but I believe there is such discrepancy in the lines and true values today that we have a huge opportunity to cash in! So let the games begin…..we are poised for a tremendous week!

Sundays’s results : +5.1 units
Total to date : -14.9 units

Book

Line

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Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 over Arizona cardinals : Bet 8 units

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Result:

This is a game that see’s 2 of the top teams in the NFC at 5-1 face off against each other. While it may seem like an interesting match up, I think they got it wrong with the lines here. I really think Philly should be the favorite here, but for betting purposes I’m glad they’re not. While Arizona has played well lately, their beat up defense has not been exposed due to them getting to beat up on poor team the last couple of weeks in Washington and Oakland. The last time they faced as prolific an offense as they are facing today was against the Broncos which saw the Cards get blown out by 3 TD’s. While Eagles QB Nick Foles has been a bit inconsistent so far this season,it hasn’t deterred the Eagles offense from racking up 30 points per game ranking them 3rd in the NFL. Also RB “Shady” McCoy looks to be back on track after a break out game before the bye week of 149 yards on the ground, With McCoy right that really opens up the game for Foles to be able to produce much more consistently. The Cardinal defense while good, is not producing due to injuries like it has over the last couple of seasons. I see them as a good team that can beat the bad teams but will struggle with the good ones, especially high powered offenses. That’s exactly what Philly brings to the table today. The wrong team may be favored here, but as long as we got it right that’s all that matters.

Indianapolis Colts -3.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers : Bet 10 units

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Result:

This is a case of a team fast becoming on of the elite teams of the league in the Colts, coming in and playing a winning but very inconsistent Steeler team. Pittsburgh while posting a 4-3 record this year has really looked pathetic at times. Even in wins like against the Texans they found themselves in a formidable 13-0 hole only to find there way back in a come from behind win. Well if the Steelers play anything other than a perfect game against this surging Colts team, they will get blown out. Even a perfect game from Pittsburgh may not be enough against Indy which comes in with not only the number 1 ranked offense led by MVP candidate QB Andrew Luck, but also boasts the 3rd ranked defense in the league. The Colts special teams are also top notch with their punter Pat McAfee leading the league in punting avg 44.8 and place kicker Adam Vinateri yet to miss a field goal going 14 for 14. The Colts look to have an edge in every key aspect of the game. The Steelers will appear to have to play this game from behind and that is just an impossible task for this Pittsburgh team to overcome. I look for the Colts to pull away in this game and prove they are one of the best teams in the league.

Green Bay Packers +2.5 over New Orleans Saints : Bet 5 units

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Result:

I am one of the few that just think the Saints are a tick below of what they have been in past years. While they have always been much different and poorer on the road, they have started to show chinks in the armor at home as well. Last home came saw New Orleans down by 11 to the Buccaneers with 10 mins to go before making a miraculous comeback. Do not look for any comebacks here today should the Packers jump out to a lead. Te Packers are surging with 4 wins in a row and QB Aaron Rodgers playing out of his mind with 18 TD’s vs just 1 INT. The Saints pass defense is probably their weakest aspect of their team, that does not bode well with the likes of Aaron Rodgers coming into town. The Packers defense has also been playing better of late so while I don’t see them completely shutting down Saints big time QB Drew Brees, I don’t see the Saints able to match the Packers score for score. While the Packers have shown the ability to make big comebacks in games as well, such as against the Jets. I don’t think that will be a factor and I believe the packers will be relentless in their attack and outlast what I believe to be a slightly faded Saints team. Even at home.

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