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Jan 24

Aramon’s 2015/16 NFL Picks: Conference Championship Playoffs

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Last week saw us get handed a very strange and tough loss. It was a tale of two halves that were damn near unbelievable. Seattle, our pick +2.5, could not have screwed up the game anymore by allowing the Panthers to come out and run up a 31-0 halftime lead. Anything that could go wrong for the Seahawks did, and Carolina took advantage of it. However, whatever ailed Seattle in the first half was definitely cured in the 2nd as they came out and completely shut down the Panthers for zero points and scored 24 unanswered points of there own and came within just a couple of plays of tying up this game at the end. An unbelievable turn of events, and unfortunately had us on the wrong side of the wager. No matter, we still have this week to bounce back with the conference championship games to fatten our bankroll before the Super Bowl. We definitely should make some cash as we may have found a nice big advantage to play today, and help remove the sting from last week’s odd loss. So let’s sit back and enjoy the games today as they determine which teams will be headed to the Superbowl, and of course cash in while we do.

Sunday’s results : -5.5
Total to date : +9.9 units

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Denver Broncos +3 over New England Patriots : Bet 5 units

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Result:

What happens a lot in these last playoff games before the super bowl is the lines can get skewed very badly based on public perception. The Patriots are an NFL darling to the public betting crowd and with so few games to bet on, they will load up on the game. What this means is, at +3 for the Broncos, the line is saying essentially that the Patriots are around 6 points better then the Broncos on a neutral field. Denver is at home today in one of the best home field stadiums in the league and that carries a worth of close to 5 points for Denver. With that being said still being 3 point underdogs to the Pats means the public thinks the Patriots are a better team by 8 points with the home field advantage factored in…..and I say no way. Not even close. This game is hyped because it pits two of the best QB’s ever to play the game against each other. The Patriots Tom Brady still playing at an elite level, while the Broncos Peyton Manning looking to find some of the magic that injuries and age has robbed him of. But Peyton having missed half the season with injury claims to finally be totally healthy, more so than he has been in over a year. This is good, because Denver does not need Manning to be great, just not bad. Denver is the number one defense in the NFL and notoriously that fares better then offense come playoff time. The Broncos also lead the league in sacks, which if Tom Brady has one weakness, its that great pass rushing pressure can greatly diminish what he does so well. Anytime Brady has faltered it has been due to pressure, and that’s exactly what’s coming his way today. Also a few key stats that the public rarely considers, the Broncos are 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games as an underdog, 4-0this season. While the Patriots are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 road games. to add to this, New England is just 1-5 in their last 6 AFC Championship playoff games. If there was one game I would over bet on it would be this one, but years of playing smart with the advantage does not allow me to do so, but a max bet here is as safe as a wager as I could ask for.

Also worth mentioning today is the Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers game. As I write this the Cardinals are at +3. That just misses for me to want to wager on this game. If when placing a wager today you are able to get the Cardinals at +3.5 or even 4, it would be worth a wager of at least 1 unit. I believe the Cardinals pose match up problems on offense for the Panthers defense by having just way too many threats and an elite QB in Carson Palmer. But Carolina is a great team and at home, and we need that hook (1/2 point), to give this game enough value to wager.

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