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Aramon’s 2015/16 NFL Picks: Week 11 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG on Nov 22, 2015

NFL

With week 11 of this NFL season upon us we find us in the unenviable position of needing to play a little catch up. Going 1-2 last week has us dipping into the negative for the season and we need to turn it around with some smart strong plays. Last week saw our max bet fall just short at the end of the game which was a significant negative swing for us. Well this week once again finds us with 3 strong plays that should right the ship and get us back in the black. We have been hovering plus or minus right around even all season, now is the time to make the move. The last couple of weeks has seen large wagering with significant plays. This week is no different. I have picked out the cream of the crop and we will lay the wood today on only the best chances to win. No lucky or unlucky bounces need apply here, we got this!

Sunday’s results : -5.9 units
Total to date : -6.4 units

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Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers : Bet 4 units

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Result:

Philly needs to win at home today as they are vying for a playoff berth in a wide open NFC East division. Th injury to Eagles starting QB Sam Bradford I rate as a positive as back up Mark Sanchez steps in to take his place. Bradford really struggled all season to fit into head coach Chip Kelly’s system. Sanchez on the other hand has been in it fr a couple of years, is far more mobile and should run it finally as what is expected. The Bucs are a young team and have had a few moments of decent play this year, but being led by rookie QB Jameis Winston I expect the Buccaneers to be a little overwhelmed coming into Philadelphia today facing a fired up Eagles team. With Sanchez at the helm for Philly today I expect to see a far more aggressive attacking offense that may finally put up the large point totals we have come to expect from the Eagles but have lacked most of the season. Defenses should not be the factor today as much as Tampa Bay will quickly fall behind not being able to match Philadelphia score for score. With the number being under a touchdown, I think this is a easy cover and win for the Eagles today.

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Houston Texans +3.5 over New York Jets : Bet 4 units

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Result:

The Jets started this season like a house on fire and had their supporters buzzing with the possibility of not only making the playoffs but contending with the almighty Patriots for the division title. Well the Jets have fallen back to earth going just 0-3-1 against the spread the last 4 weeks and have shown that while they are not a terrible team, they are fringe playoff contenders at best. Even with an offense that looked much improved over last years dismal squad, they still lack the big time QB to take them over the top. New York QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has done a serviceable job, but its been the Jets defense that has kept them fairly competitive this season. But if we are talking defenses, you cannot say enough about what the Texans have done lately on defense. Thy have leaped back into the playoff hunt after an amazing win last week shutting down the then undefeated Bengals and holding them to just 6 points and handing them their first loss. As a matter of fact the Houston defense has not allowed a touchdown in the last 10 quarters,and only 6 points in each of their last 2 games. They start QB T.J. Yates this week which I believe to be a strength for their offense as well. I believe with the Jets being shaky in the QB department, and Houston’s defense being other worldly at the moment, this is a bad match up for New York. I expect Fitspatrick to be forced into costly mistakes, and with his already hurting thumb injury, we may even see back up Geno Smith in the game which would probably spell disaster for the Jets. Houston is on the rise and the Jets are being grounded. Not only do the Texans cover this game, but I believe they win outright.

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Indianapolis Colts +4.5 over the Falcons : Bet 4 units

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Result:

The Falcons are another team that started the season with a bang, but I believe it proved to be fraudulent and they have really been struggling of late. They started the season 4-0 against the spread, but since then have gone 0-5 against the number. They just have fallen apart and are not getting it done. The Colts on the other hand need to go with their back up QB Matt Hasselback with the injury to starter Andrew Luck. That is not a bad thing. Hasselback is probably the best backup QB in the league and has already started a couple games this year for the Colts and was a huge reason for their turnaround from the horrid start of the season. I can see Atlanta playing this game close with Indy, but I actually slightly favor the Colts in this game to outright win. Given the fact the Colts are actually getting points here, to me this is a no brainer of a pick. I think the very strong start of the Falcons this year still has them rated slightly higher than they should be. Conversely, the Colts who started terribly this season, have under played to what many had as lofty expectations for them and their value has plummeted. But I think we have a case of a team in the Falcons not as good as their rating, and a team in the Colts better than it. Even with a backup QB in for the Colts today, I actually love Hasselback in this position and see Indy keep the Falcons on the slide while the Colts inch closer to expectation.

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