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Dec 13

Aramon’s 2015/16 NFL Picks: Week 14

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Last week saw us go 1-1 and take a slight loss on the week as our larger wager took the loss. In a game in which we took the over total of 46.5, and having 30 points on the board by halftime, it looked at the time to be a sure win. Well, it was not to be. Even as the Giants field goal kicker missed his first field goal of the season in OT that would have given us the opportunity to win the bet, I just knew this one was either going to be up to bad or good luck and at that point I no longer cared as much. Of course a win would have been better, but when the bounce of the ball is what we are clinging to for a win, I know it can go either way and we can’t live or die by that. Anyway, this week is all new and brings fresh opportunities to cash in. We should do just that with a couple of moderate plays today that should bolster the positive balance of our bankroll.

Sunday’s results : -2.5 units
Total to date : +3.7 units

Book

Line

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New York Jets/Tennessee Titans take the over total 0f 46.5 : Bet 3 units

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Result:

The Jets pulled out a nice win last week against the Giants in overtime to really bolster their playoff chances. Although they didn’t always look their best, they are proving to be good under pressure, and it starts with an offense led by QB Ryan Fitzpatrick finally giving the Jets the consistent QB play they have been missing for years. New York is now loaded with legitimate potent offensive weapons and now has a QB able to utilize them. When this Jets team plays to their potential, they are a handful for anybody, and will score some points. Tennessee on the other hand is a work in progress. But what makes them exciting is their rookie QB Marcus Mariota playing good solid football and proving being the 2nd pick of the draft was no mistake. He strung his second consecutive good game together last week and has thrown for 19 touchdowns this season against 9 INT’s. What makes him favorable to put another good game together today is how he matches up with this Jet defense. While the Jets D is formidable, they are they blitz more than any other team in the league. That is just fine for the rookie QB Mariota as he ranks highest of any QB this year against the blitz. I do think the Jets will eventually prove to be too much for the Titans today, but not before Tennessee hangs some points on the board. I don’t see the Titans offering up too much resistance to what is fast becoming a very potent Jet offense, as this game see’s its share of points scored letting this game easily hit the over total.

Book

Line

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/Philadelphia Eagles -1 over Buffalo Bills : Bet 2 units

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Result:

The Eagles are a tough team to figure this year. Just when you think they are lost for the season and in total chaos, they come back and put together a great performance and beat the likes of the New England Patriots. Philly is loaded with talent and is capable of actually winning their division should they play hard and keep their heads in the game. They certainly looked like that last week and I’m willing to bet the Bills aren’t good enough to make them waiver just yet. Buffalo, while not being a bad team has been wildly inconsistent. One week they win with great defense, the next they give up 48 points. One week they win by scoring over 40 points themselves, the next week they can’t even score a touchdown. Bills young QB Tyrod Taylor has actually proven to be a pretty darn good QB this year, but at times he looks to get confused and doesn’t read through his progressions well and just dumps the ball off to his first target or runs. It has worked to a point this year for him, but I doubt it makes a good plan going against an Eagles team not only complete on offense but on defense as well. A testament to the Bills consistency is their record after they cover a win. Buffalo is just 1-4-1 against the spread after a cover. That speaks a lot about a team not quite ready to make the jump out of mediocrity. The Eagles on paper are an elite team that have themselves not played that way with any consistency this season. However, all things being equal they are a better team then the Bills. On a neutral field I would have the Eagles favored by a field goal. But they are playing in Philly which should add a good 3 points more advantage to today’s game as the line only has the Eagles at -1. Had the Eagles been a little more consistent this season with their talented squad this would even be a larger wager, although had they been the line in the game would probably be dramatically different. So with everything factored in we still find some value here in picking the more talented team to win and cover at home.

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