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Sep 20

Aramon’s 2015/16 NFL Picks: Week 2 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Well it’s finally football time again and what an exciting time it is! This season has seen me revamp my system a bit and i believe we are primed for an INCREDIBLE year of football betting success! To begin with as you may have noticed we hung back and did not bet at all in week 1. I have watched the teams carefully over the off and pre season have developed a good sense onto who is legitimate in the league. Week 1 is a good way to lay back and let the public over react to one game results and move the betting lines into an advantage for us. I have also reduced my betspread with weighing my wagers from 10:1 down to 5:1. I believe this is a more improved system as I have pinpointed advantages far more clearly and do not allow for such large discrepencies in value. What it also effectively does is doubles our 100 unit bankroll which became an issue for the first time last year. With what I believe to be an incredibly strong system we attack the NFL season here in week 2. I’m only offering 1 play today. There are a few more that if were another week or two into the season would have made my board and I will give brief mention to them, but only 1 play today that we will wager on. Be sure to check back tomorrow because it looks as if we will have a second play of the week on the Monday night game. So with all this being said, lets get this party started!

Sunday’s results : 0.0 units
Total to date : 0.0 units

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Line

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New England Patriots +1 over Buffalo Bills : Bet 4 units

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Result: New england Patriots 40 – 32 Buffalo Bills

The line on this game is a perfect example of over reaction to week 1 results. While I do believe the Buffalo Bills as newly constructed under Rex Ryan will be vastly improved over last years Bills, they should never be a favorite over New England….even in Buffalo. Lets be honest here, even with a very good and formidable Bills defense that looked impressive in their first game against the Colts, the QB matchup of the Patriots Tom Brady vs the Bills Tyrod Taylor looks to be a huge mismatch. Last week Brady was typically himself throwing 4 TD’s against another top tier team in the AFC the Pittsburgh Steelers. While Buffalo’s Tyrod Taylor looked fine last week against the Colts, Indy had virtually no pass rush. You can bet Pats coach Bill Belichick will be keyed on that and throw everything at this young QB and try to fluster him into mistakes. Also on the offensive side for the Bills newly acquired star RB Lesean McCoy is hurting with a bad hamstring and will be limited if he even plays at all. The fact that a coach Belichick led Patriots team is 7-1-1 against the spread following a Thursday night game, points to the the smartest head coach in the league being almost unbeatable with a few extra days to prepare for a team. The Patriots are a proven commodity as well, going 10-3 ATS against winning teams in their past 13 games. Im sure the Bills will offer some defensive problems, but not enough to overcome their own offensive issues. You may slow the Patriots some, but even with a somewhat suspect New England defense, Buffalo cannot score enough. The Patriots will flat out win this game, a game in which they should be favored, but thankfully are not. Even if your book has this at a pick em or even Pats -1 this is still a great bet.

Other plays to watch are: New Orleans Saints -10 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers….Saints at home are far better than on the road and Tampa Bay looks to be floundering all season. would still like to see more,but this should play out well for the Saints.

Also in what should be an interesting game Seattle Seahawks +3.5 over Green Bay Packers…..A Seattle loss in week 1 has a lot of people jumping ship on last years NFC champs. Green Bay is a good team and they are at home, but I still see the Seahawks as a better team. Even with the typical 3 points given for home field advantages I would still have the Seahawks favored by 1. The fact they are getting points here gives them an edge. I stay away from it because I still need to see more from a Seattle defense that is slightly weaker than last year going up against an elite QB like Aaron Rodgers.

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