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Sep 27

Aramon’s 2015/16 NFL Picks: Week 3

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Ok our first week of wagering is in the books and we went 1-1. Of course I was hoping for better results, but overall with it being very early in the season its not an unusual expectation. Today we move forward in week 3 with some very good plays to hopefully catapult us into positive results and never look back. There are still a couple of very good teams that have struggled early that will come up very big for us as they right the ship towards their true expectation. There are also other teams that are riding a little higher than they should, and as they regress to their mean, we shall progress to our profit. So we have 3 plays today with exactly these thoughts in mind. Let’s make some money!

Monday’s results : -4.4 units
Total to date : -0.4 units

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Philadelphia Eagles +1 over New York Jets : Bet 3 units

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Result: Philadelphia Eagles 24 : 17 New York Jets

Well here we go again betting against a NY Jets team that everyone is praising to be the second coming of the 1985 Chicago Bears powerhouse team. The Jets did bite us last week by dominating a Colts team that I really think they shouldn’t have, but as I have mentioned, the Jets are good not great and certain teams have not performed up to expectation. The 0-2 Eagles are such a team. Leading into this season the Chip Kelly lead Eagles were expected to be a force to be reckoned with an thus far have not shown what many believed them to be. However, with 2 weeks of the regular season under his belt, Philly QB Sam Bradford just have a far better grasp of this Eagle frenetic fast paced offense that has been very successful in the past. Actually had the Eagles not missed a field goal in game 1 they would have won that one. And last week with them still not be completely settled in on a QB running a new offense hey had to face a very good Dallas team with a great defense. So while the the Eagles 0-2 start may be just a mirage to me, the Jets 2-0 start is not as surprising. However, they are not world beaters. While the defense has been excellent, it is hobbled a bit today with the top cornerback in the league Derrelle Revis battling leg injury. That will prove costly to a very potent and fast paced Eagle offense. Also, the Jet offense is still being led by perennial back up QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. And while he has played well, there is a reason he has been primarily a 2nd string QB in his career. This may be the week it shows as the Jets stud RB Chris Ivory is also hampered by injury and Fitzpatrick may be asked to do more today than in the previous 2 weeks. That could and should spell trouble. Bottomline is the Eagles are 0-2 and an 0-3 start would be devastating for a team expected to be very good this season. Only 2% of teams that start 0-3 for the season make the playoffs…..all the Eagles need to do is win this game for us to cover, I like our chances.

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Baltimore Ravens -2.5 over Cincinnati Bengals : Bet 2 units

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Result: Baltimore Ravens 24 : 28 Cincinnati Bengals

Ok I’m gonna make this quick. This is just about the same scenario as in our first pick. The Ravens are predicted, and rightly so to be the best team in their division. They are 0-2. The Bengals while always a decent presentable team are not a true representation of their 2-0 start. As i said earlier it is a severe problem to a teams season to start 0-3. There is no way the Ravens led by a top QB like Joe Flacco allow this to happen. Especially with them just needing the ball to bounce a different way the first 2 games and they would be 2-0. This week expect the Ravens to bounce back especially playing at home. The Bengals QB Andy Dalton is going to find himself under pressure and is thus prone to big mistakes. There is no way this line should have the Ravens favored so low. Playing at home should garner them at least a 3 point advantage, and with edges in QB as wel as defense, this is a public skewed line that we should be able to take nice advantage of.

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Indianapolis Colts -3.5 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 5 units

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Result: Indianapolis Colts 35 : 33 Tennessee Titans

Again this will be quick as this is pretty much the exact same scenario of the first two picks. The 0-2 Colts have been a huge disappointment. Who would have thought an Andrew Luck led Colts offense would be so anemic. No one, thats who. But while they have struggled on offense it also has not helped that they went against 2 great defenses in the Bills and Jets to start the season. They are not going to have that problem today going against a much softer Titan defense. I expect a HUGE breakout day for the Colts especially against a division rival. The Titans have looked better then advertised and their rookie QB Marcus Mariota looked like a superstar his 1st week of the season throwing 4 TD’s and having a perfect QB rating. Last week he came back to earth a bit ut was still good. But he is still just a rookie and with Colts expected to absolutely light it up today in an effort not to slip to 0-3, I do not expecy the rookie Titan QB to be able to carry that load. Its also a chance for the Colt defense to get on track against a rookie QB looking to make plays to keep up. This is a huge spot for the Colts to boost themselves back into the conversation of one of the best teams in the AFC. Every game today has that common factor as what was thought to be very good teams trying to avoid that dreaded 0-3 start. The Colts today need to right the ship in a big way today as they have looked the worse out of the winless teams we picked today. However, they are the team with the biggest upside, and facing the weakest competition of the 3 picks today. I like the Colts big today…..and this tie they will not disappoint.

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