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Aramon’s 2015/16 NFL Picks: Week 4 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG on Oct 04, 2015

NFL

A tough week last week as we went 1-2 losing those 2 plays in the last few minutes of each game. What looked to be a huge positive week for us fell apart in dramatic fashion at the end. It’s frustrating, but it happens. It stands to reason there will be times during the season this falls our way as well as long as we are picking correctly. This week 3 more plays to bounce back on and we are back in business. All very strong wagers that should see us right the ship early and stay there. Speaking of early, we have a nice play on the early game in London that I believe our UK fans will truly enjoy. A good game, and even better yet….a money maker!

Sunday’s results : -4.7 units
Total to date : -5.1 units

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New York Jets -2.5 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 3 units

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Result: New York Jets 27 : 14 Miami Dolphins

Ok this AFC East division rival game is being played in the most neutral locale possible for any NFL team……London. Which means it comes down to are the Jets at least a field goal better than Miami this year on a neutral field. The answer is yes. Last week we won with taking the Eagles over the Jets, and while it looked like it may get out of hand the Jets proved resilient and their defense held strong and proved once again to be one of the best in the league. Their offense still hasn’t found the formula to be consistent, and will probably be their weakness until their QB situation is more stable. But for today’s game the Jets offense should prove to look fairly potent going up a Dolphin defense that just has been bad the first few weeks of the season. Miami ranks near the bottom in almost every significant defensive category so this is an ideal matchup for a Jets team that need to find their stride offensively. I believe this top defense of the Jets should control the field and put their offense in positions where they have great opportunity to score. The Dolphin offense has also struggled to get on track and with Miami QB Ryan Tannehill struggling more than expected this season, and no running game to speak of….expect a very rough day for Miami to mount and real offensive threat. I believe the Jets will be relentless looking to bounce back from their tough loss last week, especially against their division rival Dolphins.

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Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over Kansas City Chiefs : Bet 3 units

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Result: Cincinnati Bengals 36 : 21 Kansas City Chiefs

Okay, I’m buying in on this Bengals team, at least during the regular season. Conversely, I am not buying into the Chiefs. With Cincy QB Andy Dalton playing exceptionally well and most imortantly protecting the ball, 8TD’s to only 1 interception, this Bengals team has had a great offense to go along with a great defense. This is a bad match up for KC as they have a weak banged up defensive secondary that the Bengals should take full advantage of with WR A.J. Green. The Chiefs best offensive weapon RB Jamaal Charles will be running into a Bengals defense that has not allowed a rushing TD yet this season. If Chiefs QB Alex Smith is asked to do too much to compensate for the possible lack of running attack against this Bengals defense, it would look to favor Cincy big time. That is not what Smith does. He is widley known as a game manager and it has been years since he has thrown a TD pass to a WR. At this point of the season it looks like the Bengals are a real contender. They have won and covered the spread in all 3 of their games and as Long as Dalton stays even close to the track he’s on, this Bengal team is going to be very tough to beat. It would take one of the more dynamic as well as balanced elite teams to crack through Cincy’s ferocious defense. The Chiefs are neither of that. I like the Bengals in this game far more than i would have to start the season. Cincinnati is a team to keep your eye on, and I believe is very undervalued at the moment.

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Dallas Cowboys/New Orleans Saints take the under total 48 : Bet 3 units

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Result: Dallas Cowboys 20 : 26 New Orleans Saints

This at one time would never have been a game to even consider an under total. Two high flying offenses, very little defensive resistance, two of the best QB’s in the league with Romo and Brees……well not today. And for the Saints probably not for a while. This game see’s both teams starting QB’s hurt. Romo is on the sideline for a few more weeks with a broken collar bone. The Cowboys are also without their star WR Dez Bryant as well. What they do have in Dallas is a very good defense that no matter who takes the field offensively for the Cowboys will keep them in every game. The Saints are just a mess. Drew Brees suffered a rotator cuff injury that should severely hamper his arm strength, but even with that the former superstar QB has played poorly and we may have seen the beginning of the end for him. New Orleans no longer has the high flying threats on offense and I believe the days of seeing them just light up the scoreboard are done for at least this season. They will need to rely heavily on their RB Mark Ingram to try to mount what little offense they can against a very stout dallas defense. And with the Cowboys being led by their back up QB Brandon Weeden, look for them to run the ball a lot as well. What this means is lots of clock getting eaten up by both offenses even if they aren’t effective. I believe this will be a low scoring game because of that, and it just may be a trend in many more of the Saints games. One of the few times you will see me take an under total, but this is the perfect storm of non scoring.

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