MENU

Get up to 19

exclusive bonuses

What's so special about

our bonus reviews?


  • only recommended casinos
  • full wagering requirements
  • terms & conditions analysis
  • bonus value calculation
We respect your privacy and won't share your email address.
[X] Close this form and return to site
Oct 11

Aramon’s 2015/16 NFL Picks: Week 5 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

A very fine week of wagering last week saw us go 3-0 and give us a nice profit Sunday. The results are what matter in the wallet, but it is more important to me for long range success that the analysis of the games are fairly close to expectation. That’s what we had last week, which definitely adds to the positive cash result. There will be games where we may get a right result where the actual play on the field deviates from the handicap analysis. While of course I will take any win, I prefer to be correct in how I think things will play out for each wagered game as opposed to just being lucky. As we have found out in the past bad luck occurs as well, so the closest we can be to playing true advantages, the more we have the possibility to maintain our winning success. So with that being said, I have 3 more strong plays for today to add to our successful season to date, as well as our bankrolls!

Sunday’s results : +9.0 units
Total to date : +3.9 units

Book

Line

Sign-up

Seattle Seahawks +3 over Cincinnati Bengals : Bet 3 units

Click Here

Result: Seattle Seahawks 24 : 27 Cincinnati

What a difference a year makes. Last year there never would have been a scenario where the Bengals would have been favored over the Seahawks, even when playing in Cincy. This season has seen the Bengals jump out to an impressive 4-0 start, while the Seahawks have been nowhere near as dominant as they struggle to find their offensive groove. As evidenced by my pick, and win with the Bengals last week, I am a believer in Cincinnati this season. Just not today as a favorite over the Seahawks. This i believe is still somewhat of a public over reaction and taking what should be an even to slight Seahawk edged game, and flipping it to favoring the Bengals. Seattle while struggling early, still has had a top NFL defense allowing just 17.8 points per game. This keeps them in every game they play even if the offense isn’t clicking. However I am predicting the offense to improve and that starts with their QB Russell Wilson. Wilson has played under his expectation this season and it has hampered the Seahawks scoring. But there is reason to believe that Wilson is beginning to find his groove as evidenced last week as it appeared in flashes with his running ability and being able to throw key passes under pressure. With 1/4 of the season down, I expect Wilson to get his team running well offensively as he progresses to the mean of his expected ability. The Bengals on the other hand will face a fierce defense today that should prove quite a test to overcome. I don’t expect this to be something they can’t handle to some extent, but I think it will be enough to force Bengals QB into some mistakes. I think it will be a close game that Seattle can win….plus the points, this is a good bet.

Book

Line

Sign-up

Dallas Cowboys +8.5 over New England Patriots : Bet 2 units

Click Here

Result: Dallas Cowboys 6 : 30 New England Patriots

Most would think I’m crazy picking against the 4-0 Patriots with a Cowboy team without their starting QB and star wide receiver. Maybe, but I don’t think so. Dallas QB Brandon Weeden has done a good job filling in for the injured Tony Romo. Weeden is completeing an outstanding 73% of his passes, and while he is more of a game manager then huge offensive threat, he will be effecient. The Patriots are coming off their bye week and should be fresh and ready to play. Pats QB Tom Brady is having a stellar season leading his offense to scoring an average of over 37 points per game. Even still, in the NFL traveling on the road and giving up 8.5 points is a huge task to overcome. The Patriots as great as they have been in recent history have only covered 3 out of their last 11 road games as a favorite. And while Dallas is hurting offensively, their defense has been good and only gets better today with 2 key players coming back from suspensions in defensive end Greg Hardy and linebacker Rolando McClain. This Dallas defense should offer up enough resistance to slow Brady and company a little, while setting up decent field position for their somewhat limited offense. If the Cowboys RB Joseph Randle can run the ball effectively today, which I believe is possible against this Patriot defense, it will go a long way to burning up clock and keeping the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands. Giving up lots of points, playing on the road, going against a good defense, yes I think the Patriots will be hard pressed to pull off a cover in Dallas today.

Book

Line

Sign-up

New York Giants/San Francisco 49ers take the over total 43.5 : Bet 5 units

Click Here

Result: New Your Giants 30 : 27 San Francisco 49ers

Its hard for to believe that this game will not go flying over the total. You have a Giants team led by QB Eli Manning who has thrown 7 TD’s against just on INT, and WR superstar Odell Beckham, quite possibly the most dynamic passing threat in the NFL going up the second to last pass defense in the league in the 49ers. The Giants have already averaged 25.5 points per game this year, and that total should go up with today’s offensive to defensive mismatch. The 49ers have struggled offensively as well but there is reason to believe they can get some help today as they go against the only pass rush defense worse than theirs in the Giants. I actually believe the 49ers can make a game of this today and that will bode well for going over the total as i don’t think they will be able to stop the Giants from scoring, but rather be able to score on New York. West Coast teams do well traveling East playing in late games which is their common time to play. I believe 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick will pose enough of an offensive threat downfield for the Giants to open up a few more scoring opportunities then they have had lately. And with the Giants probably being able to come close enough to the total on their own here, anything the Niners do will suffice. This should be a no brainer before the 4th quarter,

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.