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Aramon’s 2015/16 NFL Picks: Week 6 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG on Oct 18, 2015

NFL

Well alright! Our winning ways continued with this past Monday night’s Steelers win adding to our bankroll once again. As always a positive result leading to cash in the pocket is a wonderful thing, but adding to that was once again the game playing out almost as scripted by our analysis. Hopefully the trend continues this week as we have the potential for our biggest financial gain of the season. We will go with 4 plays today, all seeming to have significant advantages. So once again, sit back enjoy the day as our bankroll gets healthy on some good old NFL football!

Monday’s results : +2.0 units
Total to date : +8.7 units

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Buffalo Bills/Cincinnati Bengals take the over total 42 : Bet 3 units

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Result: Buffalo Bills 21 :34 Cincinnati Bengals

This Bengals team comes into this game 5-0 and there is no reason to think they are not one of the best teams in the NFL this year. There offense is loaded with talent and being led by their QB Andy Dalton who is having one of the finest seasons of his career. Their incredible 4th quarter come from behind win against Seattle showed that they are going to be able to score on anybody this season. At averaging nearly 30 points per game this season, the Bengals are an offensive threat against anybody, including this Bills fairly stout defense. Buffalo is ranked 9th this season in defense and has played decent. But this has come against fairly weak competition. They have beaten the Colts who at the time were struggling badly, the Dolphins who have played so poorly their coach has been fired, and last week squeaked by a Titans team that isn’t scaring anybody. The good thing for the Bills is the Bengals defense has been surprisingly not as good as expected and is ranked in the lower third of the league. This should allow the Bills to put up some points today even if their starting QB Tyrod Taylor may be out.Back up E.J. Manuel is has very little drop off at the position and may actually put up some numbers while trying to prove he should get his starting job back. Either way it does not matter, this match up smells of lots of points. I believe we cruise to an over here today.

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Arizona Cardinals/Pittsburgh Steelers take the over total 45 : Bet 3 units

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Result: Arizona Cardinals 13 : 25 Pittsburgh Steelers

The Arizona Cardinals are an overall very good team. Offensively as well as defensively. Offensively they are averaging a league best 38 points a game.There is absolutely no reason to think they will not duplicate another similar output today. Cardinal QB Carson Palmer has been stellar so far this season, and RB Chris Johnson is leading the NFL in rushing. While the Steelers have been playing surprisingly well on defense this season, this Arizona offense is going to put them to the test, and I believe Pittsburgh will give it up. The Cardinal defense is quite impressive to giving up less than 2 touchdowns per game. With a Steelers offense that is missing their starting QB Ben Roethlisbereger, this over bet may seem dubious to many. I don’t think so. The Steelers play well at home and still have potent weapons at WR Antonio Brown, and RB Bell. Back up QB Michael Vick started to open it up slightly last week, and each week he play the Steelers are able to open the playbook a little more to him as he gets more comfortable. Pittburgh isn’t going to have to light it up for this over to hit, the Cards offense will be bringing lots of points, and if the Steelers are struggling on offensively, the Arizona defense may contribute to points on the board as well. However I don’t expect the Steelers to lay down here at home today even while playing a superior team which leads to a score easily surpassing the over total.

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Seattle Seahawks -7 over Carolina Panthers : Bet 5 units

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Result: Seattle Seahawks 23 : 27 Carolina Panthers

The Panthers come into Seattle undefeated at 4-0 while the Seahawks have struggled and are at 2-3. So why on earth would we put a max bet against an undefeated team getting 7 points vs. a team playing below what was expected of them? Because its a slam dunk great bet. The Panthers have had the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far playing 4 teams with losing records in the Jaguars, Texans, Saints, and Buccaneers. Carolina has also been very lucky with turnovers going their way this year with 8 that has contributed to pulling out wins against weak opposition. That is not really a measurable way of winning and actually weakens their power ranking because without them they are not very good. Also to be noted they are historically bad against Seattle, especially in Seattle. Actually Seattle at home is a beast as they are a different team playing at home with their “12th man” loudest stadium in the league. At 2-3 the Seahawks are desperate for a win to stay in the conversation of playoff hopeful teams. This smoke and mirrors Carolina team is just what the doctor ordered for this Seattle team to get well this season. With Seahawk RB Marshawn Lynch coming back to the line up today I expect a jolt to their offense that has been sputtering and inconsistent. With Carolina QB Cam Newton without his star WR Kelvin Benjamin he has been targeting his tight end as his go to outlet 34 times already this season. Bad news today however, Seattle has allowed only 9 completions to tight ends all season. Seattle looks to bounce back from a horrible 4th quarter collapse to the Bengals last week. The Panthers are no Bengals, and the Seahawks are coming for blood. This is going to be a blowout win and the Panthers will be lucky to even find the scoreboard today.

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New England Patriots -10 over Indianapolis Colts : Bet 2 units

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Result: New England Patriots 34 : 27 Indianapolis Colts

Well here it is, the rematch of the deflate gate game of last year’s playoffs game with Colts vs Patriots that set off a firestorm of controversy for the Patriots and Tom Brady all off season. Well Brady was able to defeat the decision against him of any wrong doing, and he will also should be able to not only beat, but whip up on the team that caused him so much hassle. Soap opera saga aside QB Tom Brady is having one of his best seasons of his remarkable career which has led the Patriots to be one of if not the best teams in the league. If the Patriots had something to prove following the controversy, they certainly are. The Colts on the other hand have been disappointing to say the least. An early pick to be possible Super Bowl contenders they started the season flat and looked unimpressive. The injury to their star QB Andrew Luck looked to spell doom for them but back up veteran Matt Hassleback has stepped in and played well, actually better than Luck had been and led the Colts to back to respectability. This game however I’m afraid for the Colts is going to be just a plain old fashioned beat down. The retutn of Andrew Luck today will do very little for a Colts team that is not even in the same stratosphere in how the Patriots are playing. Make no mistake, the Patriots are notorious for payback and revenge even if they will not admit it. Tom Brady is one of the most competitive players in the NFL, he is going to shred Indy today and let them know they made a big mistake trying to embarrass him. The Patriots are going to win this game from start to finish and run up the score. One of the few times in an NFL game where its the good bet to take a team giving double digit points. Patriots are a better team on both sides of the ball…..and they are going to max out on it all game long.

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