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Oct 25

Aramon’s 2015/16 NFL Picks: Week 7 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Last week just got plain ugly for us that’s for sure. With the Cardinals unable to punch it into the endzone inside th 5 yardline in the waning seconds of the game, and the Patriots giving up a meaningless touchdown to the Colts with just over a minute remaining, we saw what could have been a decent day of wagering fall to our big loss of this young season. Well no matter. There is far more season to go and even with the big loss we have a slight positive edge in bankroll. So lets get the ship righted today with a few nice plays and put last week in the rear view mirror. As always I feel very confident we have a great day ahead of us, so enjoy the games!

Sunday’s results : -8.0 units
Total to date : +0.7 units

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Pittburgh Steelers +3 over Kansas City Chiefs : Bet 3 units

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Result: Pittsburgh Steelers 13 : 23 Kansas City Chiefs

When I saw the line here that the Chiefs were favored by 3 I had to keep checking to make sure what I was seing was accurate. Even though the Chiefs have a nice home field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium, the +3 number would indicate that it is believed the 2 teams to be equal on a neutral field. That is in no way accurate. Even with the Steelers starting QB Ben Roethlisberger unlikely to play as he has been upgraded as questionable, the Steelers have played surprisingly well in his absence. Even with the rather poor play of back up QB Michael Vick. However with Vick getting hurt as well last week the emergence of 3rd string QB Landry Jones proved to be an upgrade over Vick. With Vick out this week we actually should see the most complete offensive team the Steelers have fielded since Big Ben went down. The Chiefs on the other hand are reeling and have lost 5 in a row and just have not looked good. The big blow comes with the loss of the only major threat they have on offense Jamaal Charles. With him going down for the season so to has Kansas City’s hopes of having any success whatsoever. Pittsburgh showed last week against a very good Cardinals team that they can still be formidable even with their back up QB. KC’s starting QB has not shown Alex Smith has not shown he can lift his team through adversity. He is thought more of an efficient game manager as opposed to big time offensive threat. I like Pitt to come into KC and roll even in a hostile noisy stadium.

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Detroit Lions +2 over Minnesota Vikings : Bet 2 units

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Result: Detroit Lions 19 : 28 Minnesota Vikings

I know Detroit only got there first win of the season last week, but I believe the wrong team is favored here once again. With the Lions getting what should amount to 3 points for home field advantage and still being an underdog by 2, am I supposed to believe the Vikings are 5 points better than Detroit on a neutral field? I am not buying it. Detroit is coming off a big emotional win and which should translate well against a Vikings team that has certainly not been a powerhouse by any means. Add on top of this that Minnesota’s star RB Adrian Peterson is hobbled by injury and is questionable to even play. The Vikings are a far different team either without Peterson or having him in a diminished role. On the other side the Lions are healthy and I look for WR Calvin Johnson and QB Matt Stafford to hook up consistently today enroute to a huge day for both. Expect Detroit’s fans to be rocking the dome today as they have finally got something to cheer about. A divisional game coming off a momentum building and much needed win, spells trouble for the visiting Minnesota Vikings, and a glimmer of hope to the Lions season.

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Oakland Raiders/San Diego Chargers take the over total of 46.5 : Bet 3 units

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Result: Oakland Raiders 37 : 29 San Diego Chargers

This game should be a good old division rival shootout. The Chargers seem to have the right formula to score points this year behind the stellar play of their QB Phillip Rivers. Rivers has been outstanding this year putting up some of the biggest numbers of his career which has translated to the Chargers being able to score on anybody. The only problem to this has been San Diego’s defense has not been able to stop anyone from scoring on them. Oakland comes into San Diego today looking to put up big numbers with there star rookie WR Amare Cooper, and there seems to be no reason to think they won’t. If you are looking for top notch defensive play in this game you would be disappointed. However, if you are looking for the typical high flying shootouts that these teams typically get into, especially with each other, well then sit back and enjoy. I think the Chargers will eventually out gun the Raiders today, but divisional games with theses teams are historically competitive. In order for that to be the case both teams will need to score, and that I predict they will do quite often.

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