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Nov 01

Aramon’s 2015/16 NFL Picks: Week 8 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

As we approach the mid point of this regular season we find ourselves pretty much middle of the road. We are slightly under even money wise on the season based on just a couple of tough weeks. Nothing horrendous, just a couple of bad breaks have kept us from a damn good season. No worries at all. We are still looking good as the second half rolls around and I believe I have 2 plays today that will easily catapult us into the black. I truly believe we are on the verge of a big push of positive outcomes as the teams are pretty rounded out now as to what they really are, and as some key injured players make their return back into the lineups. Only 2 wagers today but both are very strong and should make us very happy as we cash in!

Sunday’s results : -2.5 units
Total to date : -1.8 units

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New York Jets/Oakland Raiders take the over total 43.5 : Bet 5 units

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Result: New York Jets 20 : 34 Oakland Raiders

The Jets travel across country to play the Raiders in Oakland which turns out to be a surprisingly relevant game. The Jets are having a very nice season for themselves and if not for being in the same division of the Patriots would have an even better playoff chance then they already do. As it stands they look to be destined to get a playoff berth by getting it as a wildcard, and so do the surprising Raiders. Albeit still early in the season this is a critical game for both teams. I expect both of them to really come out firing today. While the Jets have really been a very good defensive squad this year, they have proven to be just as dangerous offensively this year as well. With a vast array of big time targets in the receiving core with WR’s Marshall and Decker, RB Chris Ivory may be the best back in the league this year and allows the Jets to be a well balanced attack. However, even with these potent weapons QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven to be a double edged sword. Very capable of big time scoring drives as well as giving up the big turnover. This bodes well for a Raiders team that has been known this season for big offense and not so much defense. It also spells out for lots of points in this game. The Raiders come into this game an underdog and that has proven a beneficial trend towards the over. Oakland has gone over the total in 7 of the last 8 games as an underdog. More importantly Raider WR Amare Cooper has proven to be an absolute force in this league and should stretch the field to allow the Raiders to score even against this tough Jet defense. I don’t believe the Jets will have any problems marching on the Raiders defense today and put up a nice number towards the total. The Raiders have scored on everybody this season enroute to being a fairly good team. This will hit the over very easy as I believe the reputation of this Jet defense held this total way down beyond true expectation.

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Green Bay Packers/Denver Broncos take the under total of 45.5 : Bet 4 units

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Result: Green Bay Packers 10 : 29 Denver Broncos

This in the past would be an unheard of pick of taking an under with these two teams playing. In the past the over would probably have been high 50’s approaching 60, what a difference a year makes. It really has a lot to do with Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. While the Broncos have yet to lose it has had little to do with future hall of fame QB Manning. He has actually struggled mightily this season and has 7 interceptions in his last 4 games. What has worked for Denver has been their defense. It has been ranked at the top or near there all season. It has been the defense that has bailed out a sputtering offense this season and has changed the culture of what once was a high flying offense. Now with a more conservative style to try and massage an aging Manning through the season, and an elite defense, the Broncos have become a perennial under team. The Packers on the other hand are capable of scoring being led by their still stellar and ranked number 2 in the league in passing QB Aaron Rodgers. But going against this Bronco defense at home today may be a daunting challenge for the Packers and I believe while they are very hard to shut down completely, it will be an arduous task for them to score regularly today. Especially with Rodgers primary target WR Jordy Nelson being out for the game as well as the rest of the season. The Packers actually having a decent defense as well should also contribute to keeping the score down and well below the total. While I see this as being a highly competitive game, I see it more as a defensive struggle more than the shootout expected in years past. I believe the public is still waiting for that big breakout monster game from Manning this year to really light it up. Not only do I think he won’t because he is finally showing some physical limitations, they are game planning for Peyton’s compromised game and its working fine. Its also keeping scores down and should us to have a fairly easy under score in Denver tonight.

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