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Nov 08

Aramon’s 2015/16 NFL Picks: Week 9

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

A great money making week was had in last Sunday’s picks! Two very strong picks saw us catapult back into a nice positive position with our bankroll. This year is proving less is more as I have refined us to taking what I believe nothing but the best advantage plays of each week. If not for just a couple of fluke bounces of the ball this year we could actually be up massively. As always though we can not focus on that. There will be times it bounces our way as well, so lets just play the percentages in our favor and keep adding to our bankroll weekly. Again just two strong plays today, but I believe them to be all we need to cash in today!

Sunday’s results : +9.0 units
Total to date : +7.2 units

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Dallas Cowboys +3 over the Philadelphia Eagles : Bet 3 units

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Result:

The Cowboys playing at home are getting 3 points. The better defense playing at home is getting 3 points. Two reasons right off the bat to look at this game. Of course with Dallas struggling of late at the QB position since Tony Romo went down is the real one and only reason the Eagles would ever be favored in this position. Well I think its a mistake. The Cowboys while winless in Romo’s absence, have proven to be for the most part a tough out. And with veteran QB Matt Cassell starting with another week under his belt, I think the Cowboys play their division rival Eagles very tough this week. Last week saw Cowboys star WR return to the lineup for the first time in weeks coming back from injury. This week I do not expect to see the rust he showed last week in his return. Also all important to this Dallas offense is safety valve and first down machine TE Jason Witten. Playing slightly hobbled of late his improving health this week should prove a huge factor in the Cowboys playing a much improved offensive scheme. The Eagles I believe are a team in turmoil and are beginning to unravel in a season filled with inconsistency. Philly head coach Chip Kelly who may be a genius or a fool depending on who you talk to seems to be losing the teams confidence. Eagles QB Sam Bradford has come out publicly to question the offensive plan being run and calls it an “all or nothing” style of play. I believe this week will lean closer to the nothing side. Dallas even at 2-5 can save their season today with a big win in the weak NFC division where 4-4 is currently what is needed to be in first place. A win at home today against a division rival puts Dallas in a position despite 5 straight losses to becoming the division favorite should Tony Romo be able to return next week or the week after. Dallas is a complete team with a good QB, today all they need to do is not make big mistakes in turning the ball over and they should not only cover but beat Philly outright.

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Green Bay Packers -2.5 over the Carolina Panthers : Bet 4 units

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Result:

The Packers are going against their second straight undefeated team this week in the Carolina Panthers. The Packers themselves were undefeated going into last weeks game against the Broncos and were pretty much beatdown Denver’s top tier defense. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers arguably the best in the league had a horrific game, worst of his career, and the Packers were embarrassed in a 29-10 loss. While most of the experts think this bodes well for a Carolina defense that is very good as well, now having a blueprint how to beat Rodgers and the Packers, I say not so fast. The Packers do not lose two games in a row, they haven’t done that 4 years. They are also 4-0-1 against the spread following a straight up loss. These numbers point to an all time great QB in Aaron Rodgers being able to make adjustments and not allow a very talented Packers team to spiral out of control after a loss. While Carolina has a very good defense, they do not have the pass rushing capability Denver had in disrupting Rodgers, nor the defensive secondary that can cover man to man like the Broncos. While Carolina is undefeated thy have done it ugly. Panther’s QB Cam Newton has had a sub par passing season but has proven to be able to throw clutch passes when needed and run the ball effectively. The Packers defense has been solid all season and ranks fifth in pass rushing. I cannot see Newton being able to get anything going in the air in this game and will be forced to run the ball to try to make plays. While he is capable of doing just that, I cannot see it being enough of a game plan to stop a very motivated Aaron Rodgers looking to bounce back from their dismal loss. I look for a statement game from the Packers today. And while I do believe Carolina is a legitimately good team, this is the wrong week to catch the Packers. The Packers have done well historically well vs the Panthers in recent years rolling up an average of 30 points per game. If this be the case today, which i believe it to be, do not expect the Panthers offense to keep pace.

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