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Jan 20

Aramon’s NFL Conference Championship Picks

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Here we are, ready to see who will be the Superbowl teams of 2013. Today’s winners will not be only be on their way to the Super Bowl, but they will also be padding our bank account. After a superb Sunday last week we jump right into our second to last betting week with momentum to end this season strong. Today’s games while good on paper, I don’t think will be all that competitive. They still should be a fun watch and even better, easy wins for us!

A recap of Sunday’s result and where we stand to date:

Saturdays’s results : +17.0 units
10% house vig on losses : 0.0 units
Total to date : +34.9 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the San Francisco 49ers would have to beat the Atlanta Falcons by more than 4 points for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offers an even money wager with the 49ers handicapped by 4 point or less.

San Francicsco 49ers -4 over Atlanta Falcons : Bet 7 units

Result : San Francicsco 49ers 28 – 24 Atlanta Falcons

I apologize to all the Atlanta fans that don’t think their number 1 seeded Falcons get the respect they deserve, but they don’t stand much of a chance to get past the 49ers this week to get to the Super Bowl. It’s not that the Falcons are not good or worthy of being in the championship game, its just that they don’t match up well with a 49ers team that is banging all cylinders right now. Last week the 49ers welcomed Green Bay into town by beating the hell out of the all time highest ranked quarterback in post season play, Aaron Rodgers, and running roughshod all over them. Now I don’t expect San Francisco’s quarterback Colin Kaepernick to run for over 180 yards again like he did last week against a better Falcon defense, but he won’t have to. It has been shown this year that Atlanta struggles mightily with mobile quarterbacks as evidenced last week trying to defend Russell Wilson, as well as during the season with 2 losses against the Carolina Panthers and Cam Newton. The ankle injury to Atlanta’s defensive end John Abraham seems to really effect how well this Falcon defense can contain a speedy quarterback and pass rush as well. Another gaping mismatch comes in the form of Atlanta’s slow defensive secondary trying to match up with 49ers wide receivers Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss, and tight end Vernon Davis. With so much attention being given to Kaepernick’s legs, his arm is just as lethal. With the threat of him running along with running back Frank Gore softening up the defense, look for some big pass plays down field that will really open up this game. Of course Atlanta has great weapons too with quarterback Matt Ryan having had a great season along with his wide outs Roddy White and Julio Jones each amassing over 1,000 yards receiving this year. And of course there is future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez at tight end still playing at such a high level. But the problem is this 49er pass rush will be murder for Atlanta’s offensive line. I don’t expect Matt Ryan to have any time to really establish any passing threat against this defense and I believe the pressure will cause costly game changing turnovers. Atlanta’s run game has been hot and cold this season, with it being both in last weeks game. In today’s game it will have to be perfect to try and keep the game close and the defense honest, and I don’t think it’s possible. Basically I see the 49ers taking this game without too much problem because I see them keeping Atlanta’s dangerous offense off the field and controlling the tempo of the game. Falcons just flat out struggle in the heat that is the playoffs. Even with their win last week Atlanta is still 0-5 in their last 5 playoff games against the spread. To add to this, the 49ers are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 road games against teams with winning records. I believe the 49ers roll big time on their way to the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots -8 over Baltimore Ravens : Bet 4 units

Result : New England Patriots 13 – 28 Baltimore Ravens

This game is strange. The Patriots are a big favorite but to actually pick them is the underdog move. There has been so much that’s been said about these teams past meetings and how they are usually so close that everyone thinks this line is way off. All you need is to look at this very game last year as they played each other to a 23-20 Patriot win that could have very easily gone to the Ravens if they had not missed an easy 32 yard field goal or dropped an easy pass in the end zone for a touchdown. These are just a sample of what has been said all week. Not to mention the Ravens have already beat the Patriots in week 3 this year in a very close game 31-30. To be honest I thought the same about this game all week, but as I dug deeper I started to question it, and it wasn’t until yesterday that I realized, Patriots are going to win this game comfortably. This is not the popular choice this week as the Ravens have been called a team of destiny based on how they have played of late and that this run will be the last for their superstar future hall of famer Ray Lewis. Well I think that’s a wonderful story too, but I can’t buy into that as a reason why this Raven defense will stop the number 1 offense in the NFL. The Patriots produced their 6th 40+ point game of the season last week against a team that is pretty much a carbon copy of the Ravens. Texans although not playing their best, had a good defense, very good running game, a very good quarterback, and an excellent receiver. Patriots pasted them 41-28 and it was even only that close due to late meaningless scores. That is exactly what the Ravens are bringing in to New England today, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Patriots were struggling in the beginning of the season when these 2 teams first met, since then they have dominated the league. They have moved to not just a no huddle offense, but an ultra quick offense. The Ravens defense, while stout is aging and has played on adrenaline for the last 2 weeks not to mention extra quarters last week. Look for them to be gassed by the 3rd quarter and give up big plays. Last week also saw the emergence of Patriots Shane Vereen as another all purpose offensive threat with explosive running ability and great hands catching passes out of the backfield. This man is something Baltimore has yet to face. Another difference in this Patriot team that Baltimore has not yet seen is the defensive back field with cornerback Aqib Talib. He was brought in November and is a shut down corner that will not let Raven’s quarterback Joe Flacco throw those long very defensible bombs down field that saved the Ravens season last week. Patriots offense is all that gets talked about for good reason, its number 1, but a very important part of New England’s success comes in their defensive ability to take the ball away. They led the league in turnover margin with 20 interceptions and a league high 28 forced fumbles. I see the Ravens being pressured to try and keep pace with the Patriots quick strike high powered offense and committing costly turnovers that assure this Patriot win and cover.

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2 Responses

Jillian Sanford
May 10, 2013

Brady has started in all but 17 games for the Pats in the past 12 seasons. Over that span, the future Hall of Fame QB has led his team to an incredible 133-40 while he was behind center. New England was 144-46 overall over the past 12 seasons, including the 2008 season when Matt Cassel recorded an 11-5 season as the team’s starter.

Deon Owen
Jul 16, 2013

On the other side of the ball, Green Bay hasn’t looked particularly great this preseason, that included a 35-10 loss to Cleveland. But it’s the preseason, and the starters have played in limited action. If oddsmakers were to make a change, we would think it would be after this upcoming week. The third game of the preseason is typically when the starters will play their most minutes. But that doesn’t start until tonight.

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