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Jan 12

Aramon’s NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Part 1

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

We started off the playoff season with a nice win last week, and this week looks very promising as well. I have found myself at odds with many of the experts in picking some of these games this week so I am really putting my analysis to the test in going against some of what they call the “sharps” opinions. What I have come up with this week I feel very confident in and am betting as such. These games this week should be a fun watch and if you follow my picks, filled with profit. Enjoy the games today, and watch for our picks to kick off a big playoff weekend!

A recap of last Sunday’s result and where we stand to date:

Sunday’s results : +4.5 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.5 units
Total to date : +31.1 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Denver Broncos would have to beat the Baltimore Ravens by more than 9.5 points (10) for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offers an even money wager with the Broncos handicapped by 9.5 points or less.

Denver Broncos -9.5 over Baltimore Ravens : Bet 6 units

Result : Denver Broncos 35 – 38 Baltimore Ravens

Say goodnight to the Ray Lewis era. All time great, Baltimore’s Ray Lewis is retiring after this season, and tonight the Raven season ends. I have been called crazy and am not in the same mindset as many of the experts on this game. I have found nobody but myself it seems, that thinks this game is not only going to go Denver’s way, but big enough to cover this huge point spread. I look at this game, not with just the earlier meeting this year of these teams in which the Bronco’ s pasted the Ravens 34-17 in mind, but with strictly unbiased matchup points. This game should not be close. Many Bronco and Peyton Manning naysayers are in firm belief that this all time great quarterback cannot play in the cold weather, and point to his 0-3 record in the playoffs in sub freezing temps. Well on the surface, that looks like something, but in reality I say its not. Those were mediocre Colt teams that Manning carried on his back to the playoffs only to get exposed for being one dimensional once they reached the stiff competition of the playoffs, which coincidentally happen to be played at the end of the season which means they are played in the middle of winter. If the Playoffs were played in May, Manning would be considered a bad warm weather quarterback based on his past teams. However, Peyton’s team this year is far superior to the Colts teams of his past, I dare to say even the Colt team he led to a Super Bowl win. This Bronco team has won 11 in a row and has a week of rest going into this game. The problem staring the Ravens right in the face is how are they going to be able to match up with scoring enough points to stay in this game against the Broncos. The short answer…..they’re not. Broncos have scored 30 or more points in all but 3 games this year, and those 3 came on the road, today they of course are home. Baltimore on the other hand had 6 games where they didn’t even score 20 points this year, and they are going up against a Denver Defense that is ranked 2nd in the league in total defense. That’s right, for as lethal and as potent as the Denver offense is, the defense is just as good. Speaking of defenses, that is what Baltimore has built their whole mystique on, and if last week is any indication of how its faring, they are about to get crushed. Last week the Ravens at home gave up 414 yards to a young, improving, but very flawed Colts team. If not for a few mistakes in the red zone by rookie Colt quarterback Andrew Luck, that game could have been very ugly for Baltimore. Actually the only true offensive firepower the Ravens showed last week was 5 long passes to wide receiver Anquan Boldin for 145 yds. Watching the game and those plays, I find it very improbable that a defense like Denver’s will break down and allow such plays to develop. Expect a very stressful day for Raven’s quarterback Joe Flacco that will not allow him to get much in the way of complete down field passes. Actually watch for Denver’s pass rush to cause turnovers leading to scores, much like the last game. I have not really bought into Baltimore all year, but will admit they have played better lately as they have gotten healthier. That being said, playing better does not beat quite possibly the best team in the AFC. Baltimore has to be absolutely perfect to even make this game close, they haven’t done that all year, while that’s exactly what Denver has been since week 6 of this season. I predict Peyton Manning blows up this Raven defense and puts to rest his critics of him not being able to play in the cold. (Spoiler alert for tomorrow….Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady coming soon.)

Green Bay Packers +2.5 over San Francisco 49ers : Bet 6 units

Result : Green Bay Packers 31 – 45 San Francisco 49ers

I love the idea of giving a team like the Packers points, it almost seems like cheating to give arguably the best quarterback in the game extra points before he even takes the field. In the simplest breakdown I can imagine look at it this way…..you have the highest rated (105.4) postseason quarterback of all time in Aaron Rodgers, going against a rookie quarterback playing in his first ever playoff game in Colin Kaepernick. That alone in my estimation is worth taking away the usual 3 points for home field advantage, but putting and extra 2.5 in Green Bay’s favor on top of that makes this game all the more desirable for a high value wager. Now I do believe this will be a hard fought game just based on a very impressive 49er defense that has an incredible pass rush that can really stifle most offenses. But what has been shown in the past, such as in the game in which Seattle totally destroyed the 49er defense by hanging 42 points on them is, a mobile quarterback that can move from the pocket and pass, can really exploit this defense. It just so happens that Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is probably the best in the league at sliding away from the pocket and keeping plays alive to complete big passes down field. And what makes this Packer offense so dangerous lately as they have averaged more than 37 points per game in the last 3, is they got healthy at the right time. Green Bay has one of the best, if not the best, wide receiving corp in the the league. Since they have one of the best quarterbacks to play the game getting them the ball, this combination spells trouble for any defense no matter how good they are. A big boost to this Packer team has been getting their defense healthy as well. They will need it against a 49er’s team that is now more of a points scoring team with Kaepernick at the helm than they were with Alex Smith. But with Clay Matthews rushing the passer for the Packers and perennial all pro Charles Woodson in the defensive backfield, the Packers actually have a defense that is quite a bit more formidable than even just a few weeks ago. Having held the number 1 running back in the league Adrian Peterson to 99 yards last week, I believe this Packer defense will be ready to handle the 49ers running back Frank Gore with far less problem, thus forcing San Fracisco’s young quarterback Kaepernick to have to beat them…thats alot of pressure for his first playoff game. I still believe the 49ers will no doubt manufacture some points against the Packers, but I don’t believe with all of Rodger’s weapons healthy on offense that the 49er’s can keep pace score for score. I am very impressed with San Fran’s young quarterback Kaepernick and do think he has the potential to be great, but Rodgers is already there…….and getting points.

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