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Jan 13

Aramons NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Part2

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Ok this weeks playoff picks got off to a rocky start to say the least. The good thing is we have more games today, and these are our best bets of the week. Last night saw us lose both our picks fairly easily, well today I believe it to be the polar opposite. I think today has some fine games on tap that should keep us in the drivers seat for the day, as wellas for the season. A lot at risk for these 2 picks today, but when its time to pull the trigger we cannot hesitate to do so. So with a good plan and little luck we should be able to pull out another positive week.

A recap of Saturday’s result and where we stand to date:

Saturdays’s results : -12.0 units
10% house vig on losses : -1.2 units
Total to date : +17.9 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Atlanta Falcons would have to beat the Seattle Seahawks by more than 2.5 (3) points for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offers an even money wager with the Falcons handicapped by 2.5 point or more.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks, in the Houston Texans vs New England Patriot game, if their combined scores are over 48.5 (49) points, you win this bet.

Seattle Seahawks +2.5 over Atlanta Falcons : Bet 10 units

Result : Seattle Seahawks 28 – 30 Altanta Falcons

Much like last week I have been eagerly awaiting this game. There is no denying I like the Seahawks chances against anybody in this post season. Mind you I was concerned a bit when their leading sack threat Chris Clemons went down and will be out for the rest of the season, but they are still one fierce unit as a whole. Even though the Falcons come into this game 13-3 and the number 1 seed for the NFC playoffs, I have some doubt into what they can do. After all, they really had a cushy schedule that only included 2 games against playoff bound teams. They built up big numbers for their team and their quarterback Matt Ryan against soft defenses and mediocre to poor competition. Don’t get me wrong, they did handle their business for the most part like they should have by winning 13 regular season games, but what they faced all year is nothing like what is rolling into their stadium today. The Seahawks started the season as a nice surprise team that played well at home and struggled on the road with their rookie quarterback Russell Wilson. Well a funny thing happened on the way to the playoffs, this team not only improved with each passing game, they became great. Now with Russell Wilson throwing 17 touchdowns with only 2 interceptions in the last 9 games, including a spectacular playoff win last week at Washington, he can no longer be called a good rookie quarterback, he can be called a great one, period. Mixing in with Wilson’s mature beyond his years game presence, running talent, and ability to not turn the ball over, is their beast mode running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch just flat out dominates every team he runs against. He only needs the ball about 20 carries a game to surpass 100 yards rushing, and he is the perfect goal line threat to compliment Russel Wilson. Atlanta has some damn good weapons too on offense with quarterback Matt Ryan throwing over 4700 yards this year and 32 touchdowns to superstar receivers like Roddy White and Julio Jones. But here’s the thing, Ryan’s numbers got a bit inflated in shootouts with no defense teams like Tampa Bay and Carolina, which whom they lost 3 of those 4 games to by the way. This week the Falcons big weapons are going against the biggest and hardest hitting shutdown cornerbacks in the league in Seattle’s Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. Browner at 6ft 3in and 228 pounds with speed is a nightmare all day for any receiver in his path. He had a bit of rust last week coming back from a 4 game suspension, but with that game under his belt and a full week of practice expect big plays from him as well as always from Sherman. Finally even with Clemons out for Seattle they still have a dominant pass rush that will get to the Falcon’s Ryan and pressure him all day. Especially if Seattle’s corners are knocking Atlanta’s receivers back on the line. Last week saw Seattle get off to a slow start as this young team may have had some playoff jitters. Well they knocked them off after the 1st quarter along with RGIII and the Washington Redskins. Today I expect no jitters just mayhem for Atlanta as they walk into this buzzsaw. A thing to make note of, Atlanta with Matt Ryan as Quarterback is 0-3 in the playoffs never advancing past their first game, even when being a number 1 seed like today. Is the post season stage too big for Ryan? I don’t know about that, but I’ll bet the Seattle defense sure is.

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Take the over total of 48.5 points : Bet 7 units

Result : Houston Texans 28 – 41 New England Patriots

This game just looks to me like another Patriot game that flies over the game total with ease. The first meeting this year with these two teams produced a 42-14 Patriot win that actually started a Texans late season swoon that allowed the Patriots to jump them in the playoff seeding. I actually see this game scoring even more points as I believe the Texans have a little more to offer than they did the first time around. Texans star running back Arian Foster ran well in the first meeting with the Patriots running for 140 yards and a touchdown. This game I see the Texans really leaning on Foster to try and control the game and open up the passing game as New England tries to load up to stop the run. I believe this will open up some big time plays for Texan quarterback Matt Schaub to hit his star wide receiver Andre Johnson downfield for what could be a big day. Arian Foster is playing with a big chip on his shoulder as it was reported this week in a nationally syndicated article that New England has a virtual bye this week due to Houston’s total ineptness on the field. Foster has actually used that article as his twitter avatar all week as motivation. I don’t think there is needed motivation as this is the biggest game of their season anyway, but I do believe Foster will be able to run all over the Patriots today regardless, which should open up some real scoring opportunities. As far as the Patriots, not much to say except they will score often and quickly against anybody, just like they’ve done all season. New England led the league averaging 34.8 points per game. To break that down even further, they scored 42 points or more in 5 games, and 50 twice. That is pretty remarkable, considering one of their top offensive weapons tight end Rob Gronkowski missed considerable time with a broken arm. He returned for the last game of the season and caught his 11th touchdown pass in 11 games this year. He wasn’t even on the field for the first game with the Texans this year, but his addition today should only bolster this high scoring offense to even greater heights. The point spread in this game got a little too high for me to wager on as it was Pats -10 upon me writing this article. I would lean to the Patriots winning this game, but I think the lines makers got the spread just about right as it teeters at about right where I would see it ending up. I don’t think it will be a laugher like last meeting, I do think the Texans will offer up more fight this time, but that’s all the more reason I like this game to fly over the total. I think it’s more likely the Patriots win comfortably than they would lose, but I also believe the Texans will push them harder this time around which should make this a high scoring game.

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