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Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 10 part 2

Posted by THEPOGG on Nov 11, 2012

We had a great start to week 10 with the Colts not surprisingly to us, manhandling the hapless Jaguars. This Sunday’s games should prove to be entertaining as well as profitable. A lot of diversity remains in many of the experts picks out there as there is no real consensus among the predicted outcomes of this weeks games. I believe I have found the chinks in the armor of the lines makers, as many of the lines move based on money wagered on a particular side. I only look at pure game data and statistics. To me it doesn’t matter what the public likes or dislikes. It’s the question, who is better in the matchups. This week I believe I have found the answers.

A recap of Thursday’s result and where we stand to date:

Thursday Night’s results : +6 units
10% house vig on losses : 0 units
Total to date : +16.4 units profit

Record including these games :
Win/Loss % (games) : 57.69% (60%)
% of units wagered won : 61.31% (60%)
% of units wagered won (including vig) : 59.03% (50%)

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Todays Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would have to beat the San Diego Chargers by 3 points or more for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offer an even money wager with Tampa Bay handicapped by 3 points or less.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks the Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints, if their combined scores are over 53.5 points (at least 54 pints), you win this bet.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 over San Diego Chargers : Bet 4 units

Result : Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 – 24 San Diego Chargers

Tampa Bay looks like a team really starting to come together. They have won 2 in a row, both on the road. Now they get to play at home against the Chargers who have to travel to the east coast and play an early game. That is a negative for San Diego right off the bat. The real problems start for the Chargers when they have the unenviable task of trying to slow down this Buccaneer offense. Tampa’s quarterback Josh Freeman has been very good throwing 16 touchdowns while having just 5 interceptions, but the emergence of running back Doug Martin has really made Tampa a dangerous team for any defense to contain. Tampa Bay will score, and score often against the highly inconsistent Chargers. San Diego recently put an end to their losing, but that was against one of the league bottom feeders in the Kansas City Chiefs. Charger quarterback Phillip Rivers while being very talented, has been very volatile, with his 10 interceptions almost matching his 12 touchdowns. San Diego should be able to score some as Tampa’s defense has a tendency to give up the pass, but the Chargers will not be able to match Tampa Bay’s juggernaut of an offense score for score and will utimately fall behind by well over the 3 points.

Seattle Seahawks -6 over New York Jets : Bet 6 units

Result : Seattle Seahawks 28 – 7 New York Jets

This just looks bad for the struggling Jets in all the key matchups. The Jets this season have been poor against stopping the run, as well as struggling to run it themselves. Fortunately for our pick, those are just the things the Seahawks have been good at. The Jets have been surrendering 4.5 yards per carry against the run game, which will give Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch the opportunity to earn his “beast” nickname once again at home. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson will be able to offer some balance to the Seahawk attack to keep the Jet defense from stacking up against just the run. In his past 4 games, Wilson has thrown for 8 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions, all against teams with winning records. On the other side of the ball look for the Seattle defense to harrass and get to Jets quarteback Mark Sanchez all day. With Jets top reciever Santonio Holmes sidelined for the season, Jets have no real receiving threats against Seahawks big, physical defensive backfield. Jets weak offensive line in the meantime is going to have to try and hold off a Seattle pass rush that ranks 5th in the league in sacks with 25….no way, no how. Mark Sanchez will be running for his life today, its going to get ugly. Also factor in Seattle’s utter dominance at home with quite possibly the loudest stadium in the league. The Jets already sputtering offense will be trying to operate in deafening noise, this game is a nightmare for New York.

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Take the over total of 53.5 points : Bet 7 units

Result : Alanta Falcons 27 – 31 New Orleans Saints

Undefeated Falcons march into New Orleans this week feeling they have something to prove. They are quite possibly the most disrespected 8-0 team I have ever seen. People have claimed they got lucky and so many of their games were close that they could have gone either way. Well guess what, they didn’t. This is a great well balanced team. This week they are taking it to Saints team that even in their win last week still gave up over 400 yards of offense for a record 8 weeks in a row. I see Atlanta scoring all day against this Saints defense, and with the Falcons Quarterback Matt Ryan leading a well balanced offensive attack drive after drive, the Saints defense will be exhausted by the 4th quarter. On the other side, as bad as the Saints defense can be, their offense is the polar opposite. New Orleans led by Drew Brees and his 22 touchdowns, can score, and score fast. With the resurgence of the Saints running game with running back Pierre Thomas, and former Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram running well now, it has opened the flood gates for play option passing and loads of scoring. The knock on the Falcons has been they jump out to early leads and then take their foot off the gas and run out the clock. Not this week. Against a Saints team that can score quickly and almost at will, watch for the Falcons to push hard for all 4 quarters. A fun game to watch, as both teams go for broke.

Miami Dolphins -6 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 7 units

Result : Miami Dolphins 3 – 37 Tennessee Titans

Don’t look now but Miami is only 1 game behind the Patriots for the division lead, and has played good consistent football all season. They may be the least talked about good team in the NFL this season. While Dolphin rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s stats may not be eye popping, he has been a very good effecient game manager with moments of real clutch play. Miami running back Reggie Bush has looked like the dynamic super runner of his college days, and is on his way to over 1,000 yards rushing this season. All that being said, where the problem lies for Tennessee in this week, is they face a Miami defense that can stifle them. This is not what the Titans want to see coming off that beatdown last week from the Bears. Tennessee’s best offensive threat running back Chris Johnson, is going to face a stiff challenge in Miami’s run defense ranked 3rd in the NFL giving up just 84 yards per game. No running attack has been able to exploit this defense this year, and with the Titan’s inconsistent quarterback play, look for Miami to stack the box and smother the Titans running game. In each of the Dolphins 3 losses since week one, they have lost only by 3 points in each of them. Titans have the worst ranked defense in the NFL. Expect Miami to score, while Tennessee struggles all day.

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