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Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 10 Part 3

Posted by THEPOGG on Nov 12, 2012

Aside from Miaimi not realizing that there was a football game to be played, yesterday went exactly according as planned. Winning 3 out 4 is good, but what really makes it great is that the games went down as predicted. That is a good measure of things to come. Of course Miami’s no show tempers the celebration, but there are always going to be exceptions to the rule. Tonights game squeeks out some value for us to end this week even better.

A recap of Sunday’s result and where we stand to date:

Sunday’s results : +10 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.7 units
Total to date : +25.7 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Todays Game as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Pittsburgh Steelers would have to beat the Kansas City Chiefs by 12.5 points (13 points or more) for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offer an even money wager with Pittsburch handicapped by 12.5 points or less.

Pittsburgh Steelers -12.5 over Kansas City Chiefs : Bet 2 units

Result : Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – 13 Kansas City Chiefs

Big point spread for Pittsburgh to cover here. Thankfully the Chiefs are just inept enough for this to actually get pulled off by the Steelers. It starts with woeful quarterback play from Kansas City’s Matt Cassel, throwing 11 interceptions and just 6 touchdowns this season. Match that up against a Steelers pass defense ranked 1st in the league, and the Chiefs are in serious trouble. Making matters worse for Kansas City is that there once strong running game led by Jamaal Charles is now sputtering to a halt. Charles although playing tonight, will be hampered by a neck injury and has been limited to just 43 yard rushing the last 2 games. Meanwhile the Steelers look solid and seem to be hitting stride. Despite having numerous injuries to their running backs, the Steelers have managed to have 3 straight games of 100 yard rushers. The Pittsburgh offensive line has been dominant in this sense, while also providing outstanding protection for their quarteback Ben Roethlisberger only allowing him to be sacked 17 times this year. The only reason I have this as a minimal bet tonight is the fact this could be a trap game for the Steelers. Next week they face a huge division rival in the Baltimore Ravens. After coming off a colossal win against the Giants last week, this may be a game they just walk through. No matter really, I still like Pittsburgh as they are at home, and I think its possible they could sleep walk through these Kansas City Chiefs anyway.

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