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Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 11 Part 2

Posted by THEPOGG on Nov 18, 2012

A small blip on the screen Thursday as Miami seems to have shut it down early for the season. While I think they have future potential, they definitely have me wary for the rest of this season. On to bigger things….much bigger things! This week has us laying it on the line like never before. I see huge value in this week, even a chance for max bet opportunity. Weeks like this don’t come along very often so we must capitalize on them when they do. We look to wager a large chunk of our very healthy bankroll on today’s games, which if all goes as planned will skyrocket us into the stratosphere of unheard of profit. We take no unnecessary risks, and always wager with betting unit and bankroll consideration paramount. So for a week of this magnitude, this is a rarity that needs the attention its expected value warrants. By far our largest wagering total of the season, thus I believe our largest profiting day of the season. Lets sit back and enjoy this hopefully exciting as well as lucrative slate of games today.

A recap of Thursday’s result and where we stand to date:

Thursday Night’s results : -4 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.4 units
Total to date : +19.1 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the New England Patriots would have to beat the Indianapolis Colts by 9.5 points (10) or more for us to lose this bet. So place this wager at any book that offer an even money wager with the Patriots handicapped by 9.5 points or more.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks, in the Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots, as well as the Oakland Raiders vs New Orleans Saints games, if their combined scores are over 54.5 points (at least 55 points), you win this bet.

Indianapolis Colts +9.5 over New England Patriots : Bet 6 units

Result : Indianapolis Colts 24 – 59 New England Patriots

Every week it seems we see the steady improvement of Colts rookie quarterback star Andrew Luck. He has quietly turned himself and his team into a force to be reckoned with. Coming off a bye week with extra time to prepare for the daunting task of taking on the New England Patriots, I believe they will be up to the challenge and this should be a close competitive game. Albeit, a high scoring one. The Patriots while sitting atop the AFC East division, have not been the dominant team we have seen in years past. What they do however is score lots of points, get leads, and barely hold on at the end to win because their defense is as bad as the offense is potent. Last week against a sub par Buffalo team the Patriots defense surrendered 481 total yards, and a team record 35 first downs. This week playing at home the Patriots are huge favorites over a Colts team that will be salivating at the chance to let loose their young quarterback Andrew Luck on this toothless Patriots defense. A factor to be noted with this large point spread. New England has yet to cover against the spread when laying more than 7 points, and the Colts will be far better competition than those receiving the points in the past. Patriots are a team that can win a lot of games, but covering an almost double digit point spread, they just don’t do it. This week is no different, except this week they just might flat out lose.

Indiana Colts vs New England Patriots Take the over total of 54.5 points : Bet 7 units

Result : Indianapolis Colts 24 – 59 New England Patriots

For many of the reasons I described in my pick for the Colts to best the Patriots this week, is the reason I believe this game will go way over the point total. Patriots use a super quick hurry up style offense that scores tons of points and helps mask the defensive weakness against lesser teams. The problem with that is, the opposing teams usually control much more of the time of possession. With the Colts that will be a big mistake. With New England having no real defense to speak of, look for the Colts to have the ball longer and score often as well. Patriots/Colts rivalry were in the past always notorious for high scoring slugfests with usually whoever had the ball last winning the game, as defense played little part in these games. Well Andrew Luck has stepped into Peyton Manning’s shoes and has done so surprisingly well in being able to light up the scoreboard, especially with his go to man wide receiver Reggie Wayne having a huge season and really helping his young quarterback’s development. Of course everybody knows Patriot quarterback Tom Brady is as lethal a passing machine as there is with tons of weapons at his disposal. This should be a good game, and the points are going to add up quick. This year no matter how much the Patriots win, their defense always make their opponents look good. This week they really are.

New Orleans Saints vs Oakland Raiders Take the over total of 54.5 points : Bet 10 units

Result : New Orleans Saints 38 – 17 Oakland Raiders

Yes we are max betting this game, and I do that with no hesitation. The Saints are hot right now winning 4 out 5 of their last games including last week’s victory over previously unbeaten Atlanta. The ironic thing about these Saints is how extraordinary their offense is, while what an equally hot mess their defense is. The Saints are allowing 464 yards per game, by far the worst in the league, and on pace to be all time record setting bad. But yet they win, and the reason they win is, they score….a lot. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is leading the league with 25 touchdowns, and as of late they have had a decent running attack. Nobody in recent weeks has been able to slow this ultimate scoring machine down, not even previously unbeaten Atlanta who came into their game with the Saints 8-0 only to leave with their first loss and having 31 points scored on them. Now the Raiders have the unenviable task of trying to stop this train from New Orleans. That’s a tall order coming from a Raider team that has given up 97 points in their last 2 games. What helps us in our pick of the over here is the fact that Raider quarterback Carson Palmer puts up big numbers in his own right. In the Raiders game against Tampa Bay, a similar situation to today’s game where Palmer and company faced a high powered offense with a less than stellar defense, 74 points were scored, 32 by the losing Raiders. Well the Saints are even more what is scripted for a HUGE total for this game. Their offense is even better then that of Tampa’s while their defense is even worse. Look for the Raiders to score often but get carved up in the process by the masterful Drew Brees. This game is going to fly by the number early and will easily reach the 70’s and possibly even higher.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 over Carolina Panthers : Bet 6 units

Result : Tampa Bay 27 – 21 Carolina Panthers

This is a battle between 2 young star quarterbacks in Tampa’s Josh Freeman and Carolina’s Cam Newton. The problem for the Panthers is, they are catching this Buccaneer team at the wrong time. Tampa has won their last 3 in a row and are by far playing their best football of the season. Freeman now has 18 touchdowns against only 5 interceptions, while young Tampa Bay stud running back Doug Martin is galloping over defenses averaging over 5.0 yards per carry. Tampa’s offense has become one of the top offenses in the league, so expect the 24 points per game that Carolina’s defense gives up to go way up this week. Meanwhile, Carolina’s quarterback Cam Newton while still being a dynamic athlete, (rushing for 4 touchdowns this year), he seems to be in a bit of a sophomore slump. He has been turnover prone throwing for 10 interceptions while only passing for 8 touchdowns. His inconsistency has been drive killing for his team all year. Going up against an offense as explosive as Tampa’s, Carolina is going to have to try and match them score for score, I think that is an impossible task for a limited Carolina team. I expect flashes of brilliance from Newton as always, but he would have to play a perfect game to even make this game close, he hasn’t done that all year. It comes down to this, I believe Tampa’s defense can get scored on, but their scorching offense will outlast and eventually bury an exhausted Panther team at the end. Aside from the Saints, and maybe the Patriots, no team can score at will like these Buccaneers.

Denver Broncos -8.5 over San Diego Chargers : Bet 7 units

Result : Denver Broncos 30 – 23 San Diego Chargers

A lot has been said in the media about this being a tougher game for Denver than it should be because it’s a divisional game and one that the Chargers really need. Well I say so what! They have needed lots of games this season from far less competition then Denver and they haven’t been able to pull it together. These teams have been going in opposite directions since they met in week 6 this season. In that game the Broncos came in at 2-3 trying to get used to their new superstar quarterback Peyton Manning and his own complicated style of offense. The Chargers came in confident at 3-2 and jumped all over the Broncos and led 24-0 by halftime. What happened next has defined these teams ever since. In the 2nd half of that game Manning came out and torched the Charger defense for 35 points, while at the same time Denver’s defense steam rolled through the Chargers holding them scoreless and forcing San Diego quarterback Phillip Rivers to throw 4 interceptions. That was the day the Broncos bought into and started to comprehend Manning’s offense, and they have not lost since and sit atop the AFC west a true powerhouse. The Chargers on the other hand have imploded since, going 1-3 with the only win being against the lowly Kansas City Chiefs. Denver won the first meeting by 9 points, 35-24, even with that game being played in San Diego. In this contest, not a chance Broncos start this game like the last one down by 24 to the mistake prone Chargers, especially playing in Denver. If the Broncos could beat the Chargers by 9 in that first game week 6, I expect the hugely improved Denver squad to easily cover this spread. Broncos just may be the best team in the AFC right now.

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