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Nov 20

Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 11 Part 3

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Sunday’s games certainly were a rollercoaster ride. But true to form we pulled out another good win. We had the good, the bad, and the ugly all in one day yesterday. Fortunately the good outweighed the bad, (Bronco’s giving up a late touchdown non cover), and the ugly, (Colts massacre at the hands of the Patriots). I waited on this game to make sure total number would reach a point where it had value, and it has. So lets see if tonights defensive struggle can add to our winning totals

So lets recap Sunday’s results and where we stand to date:

Sunday’s results : +8.7 units
10% house vig on losses : -1.3 units
Total to date : +27.8 units Profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Week 11 Monday night pick as I see it:

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks the Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49er, if their combined scores are under 35 points you win this bet.

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers take the under total of 35 : Bet 3 units

Result : Chicago Bears 7 – 32 San Francisco 49ers

Lets see, 2 of the toughest defenses in the NFL, on a soggy field, with each having run dominated offenses that control the ball and chew up clock….what more could you ask for for a low scoring game? Oh yeah, there’s the fact that both team’s starting quarterbacks are out with concussions this week! Jason Cambell gets the start at quarterback tonight for Chicago and while he is a serviceable replacement, there is no way they can open up the offense with him against this 49er defense. On the other side, Colin Kaepernick gets his first ever NFL start for the 49ers against this swarming Chicago defense that has the most takeaways in the league. I don’t think this is a going to be a good night for either offense. Down right ugly I predict. Expect an ultra conservative ground and pound game from both these offenses just trying to control and hold on to the ball. If one team gets a lead forget about the pass, with 49er running back Frank Gore, and Chicago running back Matt Forte, these teams can grind through this game fast and lead to what I believe to be a very low scoring game. Great defense, and a great running game doesn’t make for a lot of flash, but just might make us some cash.

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