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Nov 22

Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 12 Part 1

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Well Happy Thanksgiving to all! Not only is this the traditional turkey day, but as always its a day of Football! It also offers us this week an early chance to erase that minor mishap from the Bears getting spanked on Monday Night, and allowing San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick in just his first start to look like Joe Montana. I really like a couple of plays in today’s games so I believe we are in for a good day. So sit back today, enjoy your holiday feast, take in some football, and enjoy as the games unfold in our favor once again.

A recap of Monday night’s result and where we stand to date:

Monday Night’s results : -3 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.3 units
Total to date : +24.5 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Houston Texans would have to beat the Detroit Lions by 3 points or more for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offer an even money wager with the Texans handicapped by 3 points or less.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks, in the New York Jets vs New England Patriots, game, if their combined scores are over 48.5 points (at least 49 points), you win this bet.

Houston Texans -3 over Detroit Lions : Bet 8 units

Result : Houston Texans 34 – 31 Detroit Lions

Poor Detroit, they play on every Thanksgiving, and they just perform awful consistently. They are 0-8 straight up and against the spread the last 8 years. To help enforce this horrible trend for Detroit, the Texans are 8-0 against the spread where the line is +3 to -3 through the last 2 seasons. I fully expect these trends to continue today. Even though the 9-1 Texans started off very flat last week against a very inferior Jaguar team, they were able to right the ship in time and absolutely light up the scoreboard to finish out the game in overtime with a win. Last week Houston quarterback Matt Schaub threw for an amazing 527 yards and 5 touchdowns. 273 of those yards went to monster wide receiver Andre Johnson. Just an incredible display to right the ship and play inspired ball to win a game that looked lost. Detroit will not be so lucky to catch a snoozing Texan team this week. Last week the Lions played the exact opposite role by blowing a lead and choking away a game in the 4th quarter to their division rival Green Bay. This was a game they desperately needed and still couldn’t find a way to win. It gets even harder for the Lions this week against a Houston team that may just be the most well balanced team in the league. With an impressive aerial attack, awesome running game, led by superstar Arian Foster, and a formidable defense, the Texans will prove last week’s fluke near loss was just that….a fluke. Detroit does not seem capable of maintaining a strong game plan for 4 quarters and against the cream of the crop of the league in the Texans, that will prove fatal. The Lions do posses a potent passing game with QB Matt Stafford hooking up with “Megatron” Calvin Johnson for some highlight plays, but that will not prove enough for the Lions to go toe to toe with a Texan team that will outlast, outrun, and outgun,the inferior Detroit Lions.

New York Jets vs New England Patriots Take the over total of 48.5 points : Bet 6 units

Result : New York Jets 19 – 49 New England Patriots

This clash of division rivals should pan out to be a rather high scoring affair. The Patriots coming off scoring 59 points against the Colts last week are an absolute scoring machine. Even with star tight end Rob Gronkowski out, Patriot Quarterback Tom Brady is the best at utilizing every option he has on offense and spreads the ball all around slicing through defenses like a surgeon. Also to be noted is the Patriots other stand out tight end Aaron Hernandez is coming back from injury this week so this should aid in easing through the loss of Gronkowski. Although the Jets have had a really inconsistent season, this is a chance for them to keep their slim playoff chances alive with a win at home against New England. New York seemed to play rejuvenated last week against the Rams, and finally got their running game going. Should they continue this it should open up some opportunities for Jet quarterback Mark Sanchez to make some plays against a vulnerable Patriot defense. In the first meeting between these 2 teams this year New England pulled out a 29-26 win in overtime. These teams have gone in different directions since then, the Patriots have claimed 1st place in the division, and the Jets have done nothing but struggled. I expect the Patriots to be able to score on a Jet defense that is not as strong as it has been the past couple of years. However, I feel the Jets will be able to get some points as well as it will take a while before the frantic fast pace of the New England offense wears out New York. 55 points scored in their first meeting this year, I expect this once again, maybe even more.

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