Week 12 started well, a Thanksgiving feast and Patriots drubbing of the Jets giving us another fine day of winning. We also had our first push of the season, but with how that game unfolded, I’ll take that as a small victory as the books don’t get to collect our money on it. This Sunday see’s more of the same as recent weeks with a lot being laid out on what appears to be another week full of money making opportunity. We are starting to see the very beginning of some playoff implication games, which could potentially open up some doors to some teams while closing it on others in terms of betting value. As for this week, there are certainly very good value picks to be had, and what they are may seem a bit surprising.
A recap of Thursday’s result and where we stand to date:
|Thursday’s results :
|10% house vig on losses :
|Total to date :
||+30.5 units profit
For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.
Today’s Games as I see it:
For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the San Francisco 49ers would have to beat the New Orleans Saints by 1.5 points (2) or more for us to lose this bet. So place this wager at any book that offer an even money wager with the 49ers handicapped by 1 points or more.
When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks, in the Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as well as the Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants games, if their combined scores are over 50.5 points (at least 51 points), you win this bet.
New Orleans Saints +1 over San Francisco 49ers : Bet 6 units
Result : New Orleans Saints 21 – 31 San Francisco 49ers
The Saints are firing on all cylinders right now, at least offensively, and that’s where I love this mathchup. Many may consider the 49ers the best team in the NFL with an absolute beast of a defense led by Aldon Smith who has 15 sacks this year, 5.5 in last week’s game alone. So why do I like the Saints in this situation where a great offense may get neutralized by a great defense? Because that’s how the Saints win, and the 49ers play right into it. The San Francisco defense will be pinning their ears back and coming full speed ahead anticipating Saints quarterback Drew Brees to be passing almost every down. This may prove to be a mistake with the emergence of a solid multi faceted running game with running backs Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram really coming on of late. If the 49ers key on stopping Brees look for Thomas and Ingram to start reeling off huge chunks of yards and push the 49er offense on their heels. If that happens watch Drew Brees add to his already 28 touchdown total with play action down field passing. There is no offense the 49ers have faced yet that is capable doing what the Saints do. Adding to what I believe is a Saints edge is the 49ers decision to start their young quarterback Colin Kaepernick in this game. This would only be his 2nd start in the NFL, and while his first start was fantastic and impressed all the fans and apparently his coach, I believe its not time to anoint the young passer a superstar after just 1 game. Even though he will be going up against a Saints defense that has not been very good, he will be in a hostile environment in a loud stadium trying to match one of the best quarterbacks of our time score for score to try to keep his team in the game. That will be tremendous pressure and I think the young quarterback will look more human than superstar this week. I look for the Saints to outright win this game.
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Take the over total of 50.5 points : Bet 7 units
Result : Atlanta Falcons 24 – 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a close version of the most recent Saints/Falcons game, a points scoring extravaganza. Atlanta at 9-1 has the best record in the NFC and a win today would all but give them the NFC South title. A tough, mistake prone win last week should have them refocused. I expect big things from their quarterback Matt Ryan as he looks to put a disasterous 5 interception day behind him. Atlanta will use a methodical well balanced attack against Tampa’s vulnerable defense, mixing in some of the occasional big plays downfield with Ryan hooking up with big time wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones to put a steady stream of points on the board. But they won’t be alone. Tampa Bay as I have said before has been as close to a clone of the Saints game plan as there has been all year, Saints being the only team to beat these Atlanta Falcons this season. Tampa, while not having a great defense, posses that explosive quick strike offense. The Buccaneer’s motto has been, the best defense is a good offense, and it is working well for them as they have won their last 4 games in a row catapulting themselves into the playoff picture. All the while just racking up big point totals as well as big offensive numbers. Tampa’s quarterback Josh Freeman has thrown for 21 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions, and breakout star running back Doug Martin has already rushed for over 1,000 yards. I expect both teams to have great offensive success in this game which will drive up the score way past the total in what should be a fun game to watch.
Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants Take the over total of 50.5 points : Bet 8 units
Result : Green Bay Packers 10 – 38 New York Giants
Hold on to your hats folks, this one is going to have more scoring than a pinball machine. The only reason I don’t see the lines makers making this total 60+ has to be due to the fact the Giants have been anemic on offense the last few games. Watch for this game to cure what ails the Giants as this game is going to be a track meet. Coming off their bye week I expect the Giants to be healthy and well rested. There has been talk all week of how the week off has given Giants quarterback Eli Manning renewed zip on his pass that had been missing of late. When right, Manning is a deadly passer and I fully expect him to light up the scoreboard with down field bombs to his dynamic young star Victor Cruz, while also slicing up the field with Hakeem Nicks. And with Packer’s defensive star and pass rusher extraordinaire Clay Matthews out for this game, Giants should have significantly more time to make big plays. They’re going to have to with Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers just torching defenses again this year. With his mobility and rocket arm he is practically indefensible as evidenced by his other wordly numbers of 27 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions this year. Add to this the Giants defensive secondary is questionable at best and their pass rush has not performed up to the level of years past. This is a recipe for a huge Rodgers led Packer offensive outburst. Even still the Giants Eli Manning is notoriously dangerous against this Packer team, and will like always, load up the scoreboard with Giants points as well. Expect this game to come down to the wire for who wins the game, but way, way over the points total in the process.
San Diego Chargers +1 over Baltimore Ravens : Bet 6 units
Result : San Diego Chargers 13 – 16 Baltimore Ravens
The Chargers have been wildly inconsistent this season, while the Ravens enter this game 8-2 and firmly in control of their division lead. Why then pick the Chargers here? I’ll be happy to explain. Baltimore is coming off a brutally physical game last week against their top division rival Pittsburgh, which they won 13-10. It was their 3rd game out 4 on the road with this week making it 4 out of 5 traveling, with this week taking them across country to the west coast. Next week they have to get up to play the Steelers once again. This game sandwiched in between against the Chargers is the very definition of a trap game. Baltimore coming off an extremely hard fought emotional win for 1st place, is set up for an adrenaline hangover. Especially with Pittsburgh on the horizon for next week. Again, this is a let down game for the Ravens, while the Chargers at 4-6 are playing to stay alive in the playoff picture. If all things were equal I would still say this is a tough match up for Baltimore. Aside from a 55 point outburst against an abysmal Oakland Raider team, the Ravens offense has struggled for most of the year. Raven’s running back Ray Rice has not gotten on track with any consistency, as well as quarterback Joe Flacco has had many sub par outings this season. The Charger defense has been especially good against the less dynamic offenses this year, which if all things were equal would favor San Diego. But given the circumstances, all things are not. Baltimore comes into this game compromised and I believe looking ahead to the big match up next week. Look for veteran Charger quarterback Phillip Rivers to capitalize on this and lead the Chargers to a desperately needed win over the sleep walking Ravens.
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