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Nov 26

Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 12 Part 3

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Wow, did anybody get the license plate number of the truck that ran us over yesteday? It sure was a rough day for the picks as it just about ate up our profits for the season. Its tough losing all the games by near misses, I mean Ravens are just seconds away from a loss that covers, its 4th and 29 yards to go for a first down, and they get it?! Please, if it wasn’t true you couldn’t sell that as a Hollywood script. Not to mention the Giants/ Packers game, 41 points at halftime and they couldn’t hit 51 for the total…really? Well as I always say, what comes around goes around, its happened before, I’m sure we can make it happen again. Tonight’s game starts the long grind back up.

A recap of Sunday’s result and where we stand to date:

Sunday’s results : -27.0 units
10% house vig on losses : -2.7 units
Total to date : +0.8 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Todays Game as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Carolina Panthers would have to beat the Philadephia Eagles by more than 3 points (4 points or more) for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offer an even money wager with Carolina handicapped by 3 points or less.

Carolina Panthers -3 over Philadelphia Eagles : Bet 5 units

Result : Carolina Panthers 30 – 22 Philadelphia Eagles

On the surface this looks like a real stinker with a battle between 2 bad teams. Well, not saying it’s going to be a great game, but I believe it has real betting value. While the Eagles look as if they are just mailing in the rest of the season, they haven’t been competitive in any game since October 14th against the Lions, the Panthers have been playing tough in their losses. In 8 out of the 10 games Carolina has played this year they have had the lead going into the 4th quarter. To be noted, this is against good teams. The only team that the Panthers have lost to this year that did not have a winning record is the Cowboys, and they are 5-5. The Eagles have been flat out bad for the past month and a half. At 1-8-1 against the spread they are the only team in the NFL with only 1 win against the spread. Now with Eagles starting quarterback Michael Vick still out, (not that he was doing anything to speak of anyway) they have turned to their rookie quarterback Nick Foles who has not shown he can make any kind of impact in the league yet. On top of all this, the one bright spot Philly had this year, although they did not utilize him enough, running back LeSean McCoy will be out for this game as well. Eagles head coach Andy Reid at this point is a lame duck coach that will most likely be fired at the end of the season, and his team is playing like they get that and just don’t care. Even though Carolina is playing on the road in Philadelphia tonight, expect them to play tough. They have been a tough out for some very good teams on the road, losing to Tampa Bay by 6, Bears by 1, Falcons by 2, and actually beating the Redskins by 8. Carolina is finally facing a big step down in competition instead of all the good teams they have battled. Not a pretty game, but one I think Carolina wins handily after having run a gauntlet of stiff competition all year.

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