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Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 13 Part 1

Posted by THEPOGG on Nov 29, 2012

Our trip back to the top started back on Monday nights game with a nice win to help sooth, albeit slightly, the Sunday massacre. Good thing we had lots of winning equity in the bank as we still have not fallen into negative figures and plan to add to our positive total with what should prove to be an exciting match up tonight. I believe tonight starts off a huge week of potentially big games. I really like how this week is shaping up, and it starts tonight.

So lets recap Monday Night’s results and where we stand to date:

Monday’s results : +5.0 units
10% house vig on losses : 0.0 units
Total to date : +5.8 units Profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Week 13 Thursday night pick as I see it:

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks the New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons, if their combined scores are over 55 points you win this bet.

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons take the over total of 55 : Bet 6 units

Result : New Orleans Saints 13 – 23 Atlanta Falcons

Here we have a rematch of the first meeting between these two teams, one in which the Saints handed Atlanta their only loss of the year 31-27. By looking at the high total assigned to this game there is no secret that everyone is expecting a high scoring game. Well I am of the notion it will be even higher than last time. Saints are coming off a tough loss to San Francisco in which their offense for the first time all year was actually slowed down. Saints Quarterback Drew Brees threw 2 big interceptions that were run back for touchdowns last week which pretty much derailed this offensive train New Orleans has been for the past 5 weeks. I can’t see that happening again as Brees is one of the best in the game and does not allow such occurrences to become habit. Even with those two big picks the Saints still scored 21 points, that being their lowest output of the year. While the Falcons are a very good team, their defense is not the same caliber as the 49ers, and they cannot stifle this high powered quick strike Saints offense. This does not mean Atlanta won’t score almost at will themselves against a Saints defense ranked at the bottom of the league. Atlanta Quarterback Matt Ryan had a field day last time these two teams played throwing for over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns. Adding to this Atlanta has been utilizing their new speedster running back Jacquizz Rodgers to compliment veteran Michael Turner to open up huge options to a very powerful offense. I find it hard to believe the Saints will be able to hold down the scoring of Atlanta’s well balanced attack. Conversely, it has already been proven that Atlanta has a hard time controlling the absolute lightning passing offense of the Brees led Saints. Against other teams Atlanta has had a tendency to slow the scoring down and eat up the clock if they take a sizeable lead. I don’t think they can open up that big a lead against the Saints for that to be a factor, but even if they do, the Saints don’t need to have the ball that long to score so the time of possession does not factor in the same in this game. The Saints have always played extremely well against these Falcons and they desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Expect all the stops to be pulled out in a high flying contest where the winner may be the last team with the ball.

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