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Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 13 Part 2

Posted by THEPOGG on Dec 02, 2012

Today is a big day for us because it is the first time in over a month that we find ourselves in the negative. As slight as it may be, its a far cry from where we were, and where we need to be. But with this weeks games, and still so many games ahead in the weeks to come, we are poised to finish a strong successful season. Today’s games will prove pivotal in this plan as I feel very strongly about them and as such have wagered accordingly. These may be our most important picks of the season as it could be the difference of a major profit cushion, or playing from behind trying to catch up to a major deficit. No worries, my confidence level is high and fully believe today will be our finest day. So lets sit back and enjoy what should be a special day.

A recap of Thursday’s result and where we stand to date:

Thursday’s results : -6.0 units
10% house vig on losses : 0.6 units
Total to date : -0.8 units deficit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Denver Broncos would have to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9.5 points (10) or more for us to lose this bet. So place this wager at any book that offer an even money wager with the Broncos handicapped by 9.5 points or more.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks, in the Denver Broncos vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game, if their combined scores are over 50.5 points (at least 51 points), you win this bet.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 over Denver Broncos : Bet 7 units

Result : Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – 31 Denver Broncos

Tampa Bay has proven time and time again that they are for real and a legitimate team this season. They need to do it again this week, against a very good team in the Denver Broncos. Tampa has been an offensive powerhouse behind the talents of quarterback Josh Freeman, and the emerging superstar running back Doug Martin. They will score points against any team, and they have showed that already this year against the best in the league. However, they will give them up as well. While Tampa Bay’s offensive has been stellar, their defense, especially their pass defense, has been as bad as the offense has been good. This will be a challenge against the likes of MVP candidate, Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning. While I do expect the Broncos to get their points against a porous Tampa defense, I expect the Buc’s to hang a big number on Denver as well. No team this year has been able to pull away from Tampa Bay and lay any type of beat down on them. As a matter of fact, they have not lost any game this year by more than 7 points. That fact, and with the knowledge that Tampa is perfect against the spread this year on the road, is a testament that not only are they a good team, they travel well. Denver’s passing game may prove a challenge today for the Buc’s, but I believe their offensive attack will provide the Denver defense with all they can handle. Tampa Bay has played a tough schedule against some good teams and as of yet has not lost by 2 scores, I think they stay true to form today and play a close high scoring game. The big Denver money coming in all week has moved this line 2.5 points, this has really distorted the true value of the play and has made the Buccaneers a steal of a deal this week.

Denver Broncos vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Take the over total of 50.5 points : Bet 10 units

Result : Denver Broncos 31 – 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I really like this game. Its matching one of the most potent offenses in the league in Tampa Bay, against arguably the best quarterback in the league in the Broncos Peyton Manning. Tampa is built for high scoring games, especially this week going up against all time great Peyton Manning, who is poised for a good day against the Tampa defense. With Broncos starting running back Willis Mcgahee out due to injury, the Denver run game has become suspect and should mean even higher doses of Peyton’s passing. But this also means that Tampa’s offense will be on the field more as Denver without a viable running game will not be able to run out the clock. That’s what makes this game exciting and a virtual video game style of scoring to take place. Tampa Bay’s offense is so balanced as well as having that quick strike potential, that they are competitive in every game. Why I like this game to be so high scoring is not only due to both teams offensive prowess, but also how these teams approach their game plans. If Denver gets a lead they cannot just sit on it. First off, because they lack the running game to do that, but more importantly, Tampa can score at anytime from anywhere on the field, so no lead is safe. Meanwhile if Tampa jumps out to a lead, there are few quarterbacks in the league that can orchestrate comeback drives like Peyton Manning. Not to mention he has proven time and time again he is the ultimate hurry up no huddle offense quarterback and can also score with very little time needed. This should prove to be a fun watch if you like high scoring shootouts.

Cincinnati Bengals -1 over San Diego Chargers : Bet 10 units

Result : Cincinnati Bengals 20 – 13 San Diego Chargers

I think it’s time to stick a fork in the Charger’s season. After that putrid display of choking last week against a listless Raven team, they pretty much blew their season and sealed their coach Norv Turner’s fate. Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers has been so wildly inconsistent that every game seems to slip away from San Diego even when they control most of the minutes. It’s not all Rivers’s fault as he has gotten no help from the rest of his team and the coaching of the Chargers has been questionable to say the least. I don’t expect much energy out of a San Diego team that has under achieved once again under head coach Norv Turner. And this is a bad week for the reeling Chargers as the red hot Bengals storm into town in the midst of a 3 game winning streak where their margin of victory’s have been 18 (against the defending super bowl champ Giants), 22, and 24. Cincinnati has made a good season for themselves by feasting on bad teams, and make no mistake, this Charger team is bad. Bengals have really elevated their playoff hopes with their outstanding play in recent weeks. With their quarterback Andy Dalton playing so well, and wide receiver A.J. Green becoming a premier player in the league, all they did was add running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis to the mix rushing for over 100 yards the last 2 games to turn their offense into something very dangerous. And with the Bengal defense only giving up a total of 29 points in their last 3 games, that combo of offense and defense should play out deadly for a struggling San Diego team. This game spells blow out as the Bengals should roll through a Charger team that has not shown the ability to stop anybody. If the Chargers couldn’t pull off a win last week in a game that they lead 10-0 at the half, and 13-10 in the final minute and all they had to do is stop a 4th and 29 try and couldn’t with their season on the line, they are dead meat this week against the playoff hungry Bengals.

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