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Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 14 Part 1

Posted by THEPOGG on Dec 06, 2012

I must say its a good feeling to be back in a comfortable profit margin after a stellar week of picks on Sunday. We didn’t pick a lot of games last Sunday (3), but they were all quality picks and we swept the day. That’s more what I expect from here on out, maybe a few less picks per week, but generally all high value. Can’t expect to sweep every week of course, but we don’t need to, just simply win more than we lose with the money in the right places. I believe tonight’s game is a big jump start in the right direction for this week.

A recap of Sunday’s result and where we stand to date:

Sunday’s results : +27.0 units
10% house vig on losses : 0.0 units
Total to date : +26.2 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Tonight’s Game as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Denver Broncos must win by more than 10.5 (11) points for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offer an even money wager with Denver handicapped by 10.5 point or less.

Denver Broncos -10.5 over Oakland Raiders : Bet 8 units

Result : Denver Broncos 26 – 13 Oakland Raiders

Most handicappers would cringe at taking a road team giving away double digits to the home team. It usually is not a good move. But that’s why you need to look at every game very closely and not just pick on a general mindset. First off, Denver already has 3 double digit wins on the road this year so this is not as daunting a task as it seems on the surface. These teams are actually very easy to match up and it doesn’t bode well for the Raiders in any category. Basically Denver comes into Oakland on a 7 game winning streak. During that streak they have beaten 4 of the 5 teams that have put Oakland on their current 5 game losing streak. These 2 teams met in week 4 with Denver pasting the Raiders in that game 37-6. Since then Peyton Manning led Denver Broncos have improved dramatically as the team has gelled around their new leader. The Raiders on the other hand have been slipping deeper into irrelevance ever since. The Raiders have given up an average of 38 points a game in their 5 game losing streak, and the only 2 wins they have in their last 9 are against the lowly Jaguars, and Chiefs. Raider quarterback Carson Palmer has had some moments where he has put up some big passing yards, but tonight’s game doesn’t match up well for that. The Bronco pass rush led by monster linebacker Vonn Miller is quite impressive this season and should really inhibit Palmer’s ability to get any kind of momentum. Actually, look for Carson Palmer to succumb to the defensive pressure as they will be in his face all night, and commit multiple turnovers that will be key for a big win for Denver. Peyton Manning is a master at taking advantage of other teams mistakes and its never good to let him have the ball more than necessary. The Raiders with no running game to speak of, will have no choice. Broncos still have a lot to play for as they are fighting for home field throughout the playoffs. Just trailing the Texans and Patriots, who play each other this Monday night with someone almost guaranteed to lose, a Denver win tonight against a hapless foe they know so well will go along way for their home field playoff aspirations.

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